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Showing posts with label Qualcomm. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Qualcomm. Show all posts

Tuesday, November 07, 2017

Merger Monday

Financial Review

Merger Monday


DOW + 33 = 23,572 (Record)
SPX + 5 = 2592 (Record)
NAS + 26 = 6790 (Record)
RUT + 2 = 1497
10 Y – .02 = 2.32%
OIL + 1.73 = 57.37
GOLD + 12.10 = 1282.50

Cryptocurrency

  • Number of Currencies: 900
  • Total Market Cap: $198,808,049,989
  • 24H Volume: $5,965,696,801
  Name Symbol Price USD Market Cap Vol. Total Vol. % Price BTC Chg. % 1D Chg. % 7D
  Bitcoin BTC 7,177.7 $120.50B $2.94B 49.23% 1 +3.20% +16.68%
  Ethereum ETH 299.79 $28.86B $584.77M 9.80% 0.0420586 +0.98% -2.21%
  Bitcoin Cash BCH 613.10 $10.50B $620.92M 10.41% 0.0872149 +4.27% +40.16%
  Ripple XRP 0.20150 $7.94B $102.58M 1.72% 0.00002874 -0.73% +1.59%
  Litecoin LTC 55.530 $3.01B $143.55M 2.41% 0.00780061 +1.68% -0.86%
  Dash DASH 291.81 $2.29B $83.21M 1.39% 0.0415611 +5.85% +5.41%
  NEO NEO 26.018 $1.69B $40.60M 0.68% 0.00361811 -0.61% -10.77%
  NEM XEM 0.18316 $1.64B $6.79M 0.11% 0.00002544 -1.43% -7.70%
  Monero XMR 98.06 $1.52B $125.95M 2.11% 0.0138411 -2.89% +12.38%
  Ethereum Classic ETC 14.2100 $1.42B $308.84M 5.18% 0.00204059 +2.61% +35.12%

Merger mania. We have a list of merger news to talk about. First, Broadcom has offered to buy Qualcomm for $105 billion, or $70 a share in cash and stock. That’s a 28 percent premium over the stock’s closing price on Nov. 2, before we heard reports about talks of a deal.

The proposed transaction is valued at approximately $130 billion on a pro forma basis, including $25 billion of net debt. Buying Qualcomm would make Broadcom the third-largest chipmaker, behind Intel and Samsung Electronics. The combined business would instantly become the default provider of a set of components needed to build each of the more than a billion smartphones sold every year.

The deal would dwarf Dell’s $67 billion acquisition of EMC in 2015 – then the biggest in the technology industry. This is not a done deal, and there is a strong chance that Qualcomm will try to fend off the unsolicited offer. Qualcomm will likely argue that the proposal is an opportunistic move to buy the chipmaker on the cheap, and it will likely recommend that shareholders reject it.

If Broadcom can pull off a deal, it could help smooth things over with Qualcomm’s biggest adversary – Apple, over chip royalties. Apple is demanding discounts on intellectual property royalties, which Qualcomm charges for its patents even if a company buys chips elsewhere. Qualcomm filed lawsuits seeking to ban the sale and manufacture of iPhones in China, which, if granted, would cut off Apple from the world’s largest phone market and cripple production.

Last week, Qualcomm executives said the legal process would “proceed under the court’s schedule,” indicating no resolution soon. Broadcom is already a major Apple supplier, and if they can broker a peace deal it could slow Apple’s ongoing efforts to seek other suppliers for its modem chips, such as Intel.

There is also the question of what now happens with Qualcomm’s ongoing effort to buy NXP Semiconductors. Broadcom has said its offer stands whether the NXP deal is completed at the current price of $110 per NXP share, or not. In other words, take it or leave it. Qualcomm rose 2.3%. Broadcom dropped 0.7%.

Apple gained 1.2% – but that was probably because of the rollout of the new iPhone X, which was met with long lines of buyers over the weekend. Also today, the US Supreme Court rejected a Samsung appeal of a patent loss to Apple and let stand a lower court ruling that reinstated a jury award of about $120 million in favor of Apple.

Sprint and T-Mobile called off merger talks. This marks the second time the third- and fourth-largest wireless carriers have failed to reach a deal. Sprint and T-Mobile said talks ended because they “were unable to find mutually agreeable terms.” A combination with T-Mobile, the third-largest US wireless carrier, would have enabled No. 4 Sprint to cut costs and forge a bigger competitor to take on AT&T and Verizon.

Another reason the deal seemed possible is that Sprint has a boatload of debt. About half of Sprint’s debt and obligations is coming due over the next four years and the company is also facing costly investments into next-generation wireless technology.

One clue to what the future holds is an agreement announced Sunday that allows cable operator Altice USA to sell wireless service using Sprint’s network. Under the deal, Sprint will use Altice’s broadband infrastructure to strengthen its nationwide network. Sprint dropped 10%. T-Mobile dropped 6%.

The media corporation 21st Century Fox has been in talks to sell most of itself to Disney. An acquisition would leave 21st Century Fox with a smaller, more focused portfolio of news and sports networks. A deal would exclude the Fox broadcast network because Disney could not own two broadcast networks. (Disney acquired ABC in 1996.)

Disney was reportedly interested in buying Fox assets including its studio division, partial ownership of the UK telecoms company Sky, and networks such as National Geographic and FX. Both companies aren’t in talks now but could resume them.

Disney could benefit from 21st Century Fox’s television properties as it gets ready to launch a streaming service. Disney announced in August that it would end its exclusive movie deal with Netflix in 2019 and launch an ad-free, Disney-branded streaming service.

Rivals Intel and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) are teaming up to produce a laptop computer chip that uses an Intel processor and an AMD graphics unit. The partnership will pit the two companies against competitor Nvidia.

The new chip will be made for laptops that are designed to be thin and portable, but still powerful enough for gamers who need a stronger option to play intensive games. It’ll be part of Intel’s eighth-generation Intel Core line and marks Intel and AMD’s first partnership since the 1980s. Intel gained 1.2%. AMD added 7%. Nvidia was up slightly.

Companies continue to report their quarterly earnings. With more than 400 of S&P 500 companies having reported, earnings for the third quarter are expected to have climbed 8 percent, compared to an expectation of a 5.9 percent rise at the start of October, according to Thomson Reuters.

Michael Kors jumped 15% after the fashion accessories maker raised its 2017 revenue forecast. The stock was the biggest percentage gainer on the S&P.

Republican lawmakers began revising their proposed overhaul of the tax code. No surprise. Although Republicans generally support the bill’s broader themes, including a sharp reduction in the corporate income tax, they are torn over other elements, including the repeal of the deduction for state and local income tax (SALT) payments.

Kevin Brady, chairman of the tax-writing House Ways and Means Committee, pledged to change the bill’s approach to the “carried interest” loophole by lengthening the time an asset would have to be held to qualify for the lower rate.

Carried interest is a share of an investment fund’s profits – typically about 20 percent beyond the return guaranteed to investors – that goes to the general partners of private equity, venture capital and hedge funds. The Senate is developing its own version of the tax legislation which would have to eventually be reconciled with the House version before it is sent to Trump for signing.

Still, more bad news for the tax plan. The House Republican tax proposal would on average reduce taxes for all income groups next year, but within 10 years nearly 30 percent of taxpayers would see taxes rise, according to a report released Monday.

The majority of deductions eliminated, however, come on the individual side of the tax code. Among the breaks eliminated include the state and local income tax deduction, breaks for medical expenses, the deduction of student loan interest and adoption expenses.

The Tax Policy Center said that in 2018, individual taxes would be cut by $1,100 on average across income groups, with higher income taxpayers getting a bigger boost. Taxpayers making less than $48,000 would see what they called “modest” tax cuts of 0.3 to 0.5 percent while those in the top 1 percent would see a cut of 2.5 percent, or $37,000 on average, according to the analysis. For the lowest 20 percent of earners, that’s about a cut of $40 in annual taxes paid. For the top 20 percent, that’s a cut of about $4850 in taxes paid.

Still, a group of taxpayers, some 12 percent, would see taxes rise in 2018. By 2027, the average tax cut would be about $700 or 0.7 percent, with those earning less than $55,000 seeing a slight increase in their taxes and those in the top 1 percent seeing a 2.2 percent boost to their after-tax income — nearly 50 percent of the total benefit.

A campaign of mass arrests of Saudi Arabian royals, ministers and businessmen expanded today after a top entrepreneur was reportedly detained in the biggest anti-corruption purge of the kingdom’s affluent elite in its modern history. The detentions, framed as part of a sweeping crackdown on corruption following a royal decree that mandated a Supreme Committee headed by Mohammed bin Salman to address the issue, represent the latest in a series of bold moves by a youthful crown prince who has centralized authority to a degree unprecedented in recent Saudi history.

The roll-call of the detained reads like a who’s who of the Saudi policymaking community. The kingdom has pared back important but painful domestic economic reforms and been distracted by its blockade of Qatar and long-running war in Yemen. Now the abrupt internal purge has left experts wondering whether it is truly aimed at corruption or at Mohammed’s political rivals. the upcoming transition from the current king, Salman, to his son, Mohammed bin Salman, will be a unique one.

The crown prince, who will be the first of the next generation to rule, is only 32. The current king is 81 and reportedly struggles with health problems—both physical and mental—so the transition could come soon, either through Salman’s death or his abdication. But Mohammed’s elevation over more senior and experienced uncles and cousins—he’s the third heir apparent since Salman’s reign began in 2015— has undoubtedly ruffled some feathers, and he has a lot of competition.

The arrests are likely a signal that the young king-in-waiting is not waiting until he inherits the throne to start exercising power. No telling how all this plays out, and if the crown prince will be successful, but we’ll probably look back on the events of the past few days as the beginning of a new era – one way or the other.

Markets Continue to Notch Record Highs

Charles Schwab: On the Market
Posted: 11/6/2017 4:15 PM EST

Markets Continue to Notch Record Highs
 
U.S. equities were slightly higher, achieving more record highs, courtesy of strength in the technology and energy sectors. Crude oil prices rallied on turmoil in the Middle East amid a corruption crackdown in Saudi Arabia, while Broadcom's unsolicited $105 billion takeover proposal for Qualcomm, and a chip deal between Dow member Intel and AMD, gave techs a boost. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar were a tad lower amid a dormant economic calendar, while gold was higher. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose 9 points to 23,548, the S&P 500 Index advanced 3 points (0.1%) to 2,591, and the Nasdaq Composite increased 22 points (0.3%) to 6,786. In moderately heavy volume, 852 million shares were traded on the NYSE and 2.2 billion shares changed hands on the Nasdaq. WTI crude oil jumped $1.71 to $57.35 per barrel and wholesale gasoline gained $0.04 to $1.83 per gallon. Elsewhere, the Bloomberg gold spot price was $11.53 higher at $1,281.44 per ounce, and the Dollar Index—a comparison of the U.S. dollar to six major world currencies—was 0.2% lower at 94.75.

Broadcom Ltd. (AVGO $278) announced a proposal to acquire Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM $63) for $70.00 in cash and stock, in a transaction valued at $105 billion excluding debt. Under the terms of the deal, QCOM stockholders will receive $60 in cash and $10 in BRCM stock for each share owned. QCOM confirmed receiving the unsolicited proposal and said it will assess it in order to pursue the course of action that is in the best interests of its shareholders. This would be the largest deal for the tech sector in history. QCOM was higher and AVGO also gained ground.

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD $12) rallied after announcing that it designed a semi-custom graphics processor unit (GPU) that will be integrated into a new multi-chip processor package from Dow member Intel Corp. (INTC $47). INTC also traded higher.

Schwab's Director of Market and Sector Analysis, Brad Sorensen, CFA, offers timely analysis of our outperform rating we have held for some time on the technology sector in his latest, Schwab Sector Views: Technology Trick or Treat?.

In late day action, CNBC's David Faber reported that Twenty-First Century Fox, Inc. (FOXA $27) has been in talks to sell most of the company to Walt Disney Co. (DIS $101), citing people familiar with the matter. According to the report, talks have been taking place over the last few weeks, with no certainty to a deal being completed. Neither company commented on the report. Shares of both firms were higher on the news.

CVS Health Corp. (CVS $67) reported Q3 earnings-per-share (EPS) of $1.26, or $1.50 ex-items, versus the FactSet estimate of $1.48, as revenues rose 3.5% year-over-year (y/y) to $46.2 billion, roughly in line with forecasts. The company issued Q4 EPS guidance that matched expectations and narrowed its full-year profit outlook. Shares were lower as analysts expressed disappointment regarding its profit margin and same-store sales performance out of its retail unit, which both declined y/y.
 
Michael Kors Holdings Ltd. (KORS $55) posted fiscal Q2 profits of $1.32 per share, or $1.33 ex-items, compared to the forecasted $0.83, with revenues growing 5.4% y/y to $1.2 billion, topping the expected $1.1 billion. Q2 same-store sales declined 2.5% y/y, versus the anticipated 4.5% decrease. The luxury retailer raised its full-year outlook, and shares jumped over 15%.

Economic front quiet today

Treasuries finished higher amid a dormant economic calendar, as the yield on the 2-year note was flat at 1.61%, while the yields on the 10-year note and the 30-year bond dipped by 1 basis point to 2.32% and 2.80%, respectively.

The yield curve flattened and the U.S. dollar was little changed last week as the markets assessed the likelihood of a December rate hike by the Fed and President Trump's pick of Fed Governor Jay Powell as the next Chairman of the Central Bank. Also, global economic data continues to paint a positive picture and tax reform remains a source of uncertainty in the wake of last week's House bill.
Schwab's Chief Fixed Income Strategist Kathy Jones and Vice President of Trading and Derivatives, Randy Frederick discuss in the video, Should a Change in Fed Leadership Matter to Investors?, while Schwab's Vice President of Legislative and Regulatory Affairs, Michael T. Townsend offers his latest commentary, House Tax Reform Bill: What Investors Need to Know.

The week's relatively light economic calendar will get moving tomorrow with the release of the JOLTS Job Openings report, with the measure of unmet demand for labor forecasted to show 6.1 million jobs were available to be filled during September, matching that seen in August, while in the final hour of trading consumer credit will be reported, with consumer borrowing for September expected to have increased to $17.8 billion from the $13.1 billion registered in August.

As noted in the latest Schwab Market Perspective: Stocks Aren't so Spooky, global and domestic economic growth, along with a solid earnings picture and a potential tax reform tailwind, suggest investors should remain at their target equity allocations. Pullbacks are possible but a recession doesn’t appear to be in the cards in the near term, which historically has meant the risk of a pullback turning into a bear market is low.

Europe dips as week begins, Asia mixed

European equity markets dipped as the global markets appeared cautious ahead of a host of key economic data this week in Asia, and amid remaining global political and monetary policy uncertainties. The corruption crackdown in Saudi Arabia also garnered some attention. Global sentiment has jumped to lead the recent rally in the stock markets and Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders and Randy Frederick note in the video, Tracking Sentiment: Are Investors Too Optimistic About Stocks?, that there seems to be no end in sight to the bull market in equities, but that doesn’t mean there’s nothing to worry about. Stocks mostly shrugged off stronger-than-expected German factory orders and Markit's eurozone manufacturing and services sector activity report. In other economic news, U.K. new car registrations fell in October. The euro overcame losses and was little changed, while the British pound gained ground on the U.S. dollar. Bond yields in the region moved lower.

Stocks in Asia finished mixed following the extended weekly winning streak in the U.S., bolstered by a flood of upbeat economic reports, while the markets were likely cautious ahead of a busy week of data for the region and as President Trump began his tour of Asia. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to deliver its monetary policy decision, while Japan will report its machine orders figures and China will release its trade data. Stocks in Japan and Hong Kong finished flat, while mainland Chinese equities advanced modestly. Meanwhile, markets in Australia and South Korea dipped, but securities in India ticked slightly higher.

In addition to the aforementioned RBA policy meeting, the international economic calendar will include retail sales from the U.K., the Eurozone and Italy, as well as industrial production from Germany.

Wednesday, April 19, 2017

Inside Bank Earnings

Financial Review

Inside Bank Earnings


DOW – 118 = 20,404
SPX – 4 = 2338
NAS + 13 = 5863
RUT + 5 = 1367
10 Y + .02 = 2.20%
OIL – 1.83 = 50.58
GOLD – 8.90 = 1281.30

Energy stocks were under pressure Wednesday as crude-oil prices settled at a two-and-a-half week low and its biggest one-day loss in 6 weeks. Gasoline inventories posted a surprise increase, a counter-seasonal build of 1.5 million barrels in the latest week, along with an increase in U.S. production. The energy sector was the worst performer among the S&P 500 index’s 11 sectors.

Shares of International Business Machines were largely responsible for a decline in the Dow industrials. IBM lost about 5%, after posting its 20th consecutive quarter of declining revenue. IBM has an outsize impact because the Dow is price-weighted, meaning the most expensive stocks (rather than the largest companies) have the biggest pull.

Monday’s rally was on low volume, a sign of weakness. Yesterday’s selloff saw volume increase. In the U.S. Treasury market, bond yields rose after a rally on Tuesday sent yields to five-month lows.

The Federal Reserve publishes the Beige Book two weeks prior to FOMC monetary policy meetings. The Beige Book gathers anecdotal reports from the 12 Fed districts; not hard economic data, rather observations and remarks.

Today’s  Beige Book found “a larger number of firms mentioned high turnover rates and more difficulty retaining workers.” Tight labor markets are broadening out wage gains but price pressures remain modest. A couple of districts said that worker shortages and increased labor costs were restraining growth in manufacturing, transportation and construction but overall inflation was modest, the report said.

Selling prices rose only slightly.  The information suggested somewhat softer readings in non-auto consumer spending and an expansion in the manufacturing sector. Home building accelerated and energy-related businesses reported “improved conditions.” Uncertainty about tax-and-spending policies was one factor mentioned in several districts as a restraint on activity.

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer today said there’s been a “benign” foreign market reaction to the central bank’s two rate hikes in four months. Fischer said: “The main reason for the positive market reaction is that foreign output expansions appear more entrenched, and downside risks to those economies noticeably smaller than in recent years.” He pointed out that European unemployment has fallen and China’s economy also is on a more solid footing.

He says there’s a chance foreign economies kick into gear enough that U.S. and foreign business conditions become aligned, as they did during the tightening cycles that began in 1999 and 2004. “A gradual and ongoing removal of accommodation seems likely both to maximize the prospects of a continued expansion in the U.S. economy and to mitigate the risk of undesirable spillovers abroad.”

Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren says the Fed should start shrinking its balance sheet relatively soon but do it so slowly that it doesn’t disturb the central bank’s plans to continue to gradually raise short-term interest rates. The Fed amassed $4.5 trillion in Treasury and mortgage-related assets in the wake of the financial crisis to push down long-term rates. Officials believe the balance sheet is still boosting economic conditions.

With the economy on more solid footing, the central bank wants to allow the balance sheet to shrink to a more neutral size. Rosengren suggested the Fed should initially retire a small percentage of maturing securities and then very gradually shrink the volume of the securities being reinvested. This confirms that asset purchases are now part of the Fed’s playbook and may be used again in the future; and that this Fed believes in gradualism; no sudden movements to spook the markets.

Earnings season rolls on.

eBay net income rose to $1.04 billion, or 94 cents per share in the first quarter, from $482 million, or 41 cents per share, a year earlier, but they lowered guidance, forecasting current-quarter profit largely below expectations, sending its shares down as much as 4.5 percent in extended trading.

Ebay said it expects current-quarter adjusted profit of 43-45 cents per share. Analysts on average were expecting 47 cents per share. EBay has been facing relentless competition from much larger rival Amazon. To lure more shoppers and better compete with Amazon as well as traditional retailers, the company has made several changes to its platform.

Qualcomm, the largest maker of chips used in smartphones, reported 9.6 percent fall in quarterly revenue, hurt by an arbitration decision to pay Canada’s BlackBerry for previously received royalties. Net income attributable to the company fell to $749 million, or 50 cents per share, in the second quarter ended March 26, from $1.16 billion, or 78 cents per share, a year earlier.

No. 3 U.S. railroad CSX Corp reported a better-than-expected quarterly net profit driven by rising freight volumes across most of the markets it covers and said it plans to cut costs and boost profitability moving forward. CSX posted first-quarter net profit of $362 million or 39 cents a share, up from $356 million or 37 cents per share a year earlier. Revenue increased 10 percent.

American Express posted a better-than-expected first-quarter profit, helped in part by higher spending by card members. AmEx’s net income attributable to shareholders fell to $1.21 billion, or $1.34 per share, in quarter ended March 31 from $1.39 billion, or $1.45 per share, a year earlier which included certain subsequently discontinued co-brand partnerships – also known as Costco.

AmEx faces cut-throat competition, particularly for premium customers, as card issuers offer ever richer levels of rewards to acquire and keep customers. The company last month fattened up rewards on its Platinum charge cards to fortify its high-end market.

BlackRock, the world’s biggest asset manager, reported double-digit profit gains as investors plowed money into lower-cost index funds, but the company’s share price slipped as revenue fell short of analysts’ expectations.

BlackRock’s assets grew 22 percent from a year ago to $5.4 trillion, fees for managing those assets and lending out the securities grew by a smaller 12 percent. Investors poured $82.2 billion into its index funds and iShares exchange-traded funds during the first quarter, while its pricier active funds posted $1.8 billion in withdrawals.

Blackrock CEO Larry Fink made the media rounds this morning and he certainly sounded happy about the quarterly results, but he was less sanguine about the economy overall. Fink said there are indications that the U.S. economy is slowing as businesses weigh whether the Trump administration will be able to pass tax reform and an infrastructure program quickly.

Morgan Stanley, the sixth-largest U.S. bank, generated $1.7 billion in revenue from bond trading in the first quarter, the most in two years. The figure matched what Morgan Stanley had produced before cutting 25 percent of the business’s staff, showing that the bank can do more with less. The bank also delivered more from bond trading than arch rival Goldman Sachs, a rare feat.

Overall, the bank easily beat expectations, reporting a first-quarter profit of $1.8 billion, or $1 per share, up from $1.1 billion, or 55 cents per share, in the year-ago period, and topping estimates of 88 cents per share. Net revenue jumped 25 percent to $9.75 billion.

The major banks have now reported earnings. JPMorgan, Citi, Wells, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley all beat consensus estimates. You know that game. Banks themselves had steadily walked down analysts’ expectations for almost three weeks leading up to the start of earnings releases, so it shouldn’t have come as a surprise that they magically beat forecasts.

A constant theme has been more trading and fewer loans. Citigroup handily beat earnings per share estimates but the bank’s net interest margin fell 3% to 2.74%, even though the Fed raised rates and net interest margin was supposed to be expanding.

Higher net credit losses at Citi were a weak spot, with consumer banking net credit losses globally up 17% year over year, and up a surprising 33% in North America alone. JPMorgan Chase had a similar EPS beat, topping analysts’ estimates by 8.5%, and had better than expected trading revenue too. But loan growth slowed across all categories.

Wells Fargo beat earnings estimates. While bank officials talked up Wells’ 18 straight quarters of at least $5 billion in revenues and the bank’s ‘highest in the industry’ return on equity and return on assets, it revealed that loan growth fell across the board.

Wells had some negative publicity in the quarter – Side bar here: We learned today that the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, America’s chief federal banking regulator admits it failed to act on numerous “red flags” at Wells Fargo that could have stopped the fake account scandal years earlier.

One particularly alarming red flag that went unheeded: In January 2010, the regulator was aware of “700 cases of whistle-blower complaints” about Wells Fargo’s sales tactics. The regulator did nothing.

Mortgage lending was down at the nation’s biggest housing lender.  Auto lending originations were down 5.5% from the previous quarter and down a whopping 29% from last year’s Q1. At the same time, Wells’ employee count was up by 3700, even after closing almost 30 branches in the first quarter and after cutting 5300 heads because of the bank’s account opening scandal.

Under the fluff, here are the trends coming out of the banks’ earnings reports. Consumer and commercial loan demand is falling. Mortgage originations are going in the wrong direction. Auto loans are being pared back by banks themselves because of “heightened credit underwriting standards,” in response to early signs of rising delinquencies, according to Wells Fargo. Net interest margins haven’t expanded with rising rates.

And if the banks and the markets are slipping, it might not be too long before the economy starts slipping again.

Wednesday, December 28, 2016

The Wall

Financial Review

The Wall

Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)

DOW – 111 = 19,833
SPX – 18 = 2249
NAS – 48 = 5438
RUT – 16 = 1360
10 Y – .05 – 2.51%
OIL – .21 = 53.69
GOLD + 4.20 = 1142.50

The Dow Industrial Average is flirting with 20,000 but today it hit a wall. Stocks fell the most in two weeks in light holiday trading. Trading has been thin across the globe during the last week of the year, with volumes in crude oil, equities and currencies all below average. We have 2 trading days left in the year.

A jump in consumer spending in the final stretch of December significantly offset a slow start to the holiday shopping season, and is likely to help many retailers beat sales forecasts. The December spending boost contrasts with a muted November, when early holiday promotions and expectations among consumers that deals would always be available took a toll.

Spending over the Thanksgiving weekend in November fell 3.5 percent from a year ago, despite a strong jump in online sales, according to the National Retail Federation. Brick-and-mortar sales in the week ending Dec. 24 rose 6.5 percent year-over-year after having fallen for the rest of the month, according to data from analytics firm RetailNext.

Strong demand for furniture, home furnishings and men’s apparel from the start of November through Christmas Eve pushed U.S. retail sales up 4 percent, higher than the previously expected 3.8 percent, according to data from MasterCard’s holiday spending report. Official government data and results from retailers will not be available until next month.

Contracts to buy previously owned U.S. homes fell in November to their lowest level in nearly a year. The National Association of Realtors said its pending home sales index, based on contracts signed in November, dropped 2.5 percent to 107.3. The biggest slowdown was in the West, where pending contracts dropped by 6.7%. The NAR blamed the slowdown on higher mortgage rates and tight inventory.

The White House is getting ready to announce a package of sanctions and diplomatic censure to punish Russia for its attempts to meddle in the 2016 presidential election. The Washington Post reports several punitive measures were on the table, including “economic sanctions and diplomatic censure.” Other methods may include covert cyber-operations. An announcement describing the public portions of the response could come as early as this week.

Lloyds Banking Group is planning to establish a subsidiary in Germany or the Netherlands if the U.K. leaves the European Union without retaining access to its single market. The EU is in the process of tightening rules for subsidiaries of non-EU banks.

Britain looks likely to lose its financial passport in Brexit negotiations due to start next year. London’s 328-year old insurance market, Lloyd’s of London, is also planning to move some of its operations to the continent in reaction to the UK’s Brexit vote.

Barclays is refusing to settle with the US Department of Justice over allegations it deliberately sold mortgage bonds to investors that it knew were backed by loans “made to borrowers who were not creditworthy and which were supported by house appraisals it knew were inflated”.

By refusing to settle, Barclays is borrowing a page from the Deutsche Bank Playbook; Deutsche also refused to pay a $14 billion settlement for similar wrongdoing, and then eventually settled for $7.2 billion, but only about $3.1 billion of that is actual cash; the rest is loan forgiveness and credit relief.

If Barclays took the settlement as offered it would mean a hit to capital reserve ratios. So, Barclays is likely holding out for a better deal, but it could be a risky play – this is not their first offense.

Airbus is delaying the delivery of 12 double-decker A380 aircraft to Emirates Airline. This comes after the company warned this year that it would scale back production of the super jumbo because of weak demand. Meanwhile, Delta announced it has canceled a $4 billion order for 18 Boeing 787 Dreamliners that was inherited as part of its merger with Northwest Airlines.

Qualcomm is facing an $865 million fine in South Korea. Qualcomm said the Korea Fair Trade Commission issued the penalty after finding it had violated the country’s competition law. The country’s antitrust regulator has accused the chipset designer of imposing unfair licensing fees on mobile device makers using its patents.

The company has faced similar hurdles in China and Europe, but South Korea is an important market: Samsung is Qualcomm’s second-biggest customer. The fine is the largest ever levied in South Korea.

Toshiba shares tumbled 20% overnight,  hitting the Tokyo exchange’s daily downward limit, wiping out about $5 billion in market capitalization over the past 2 days after the company said it could face a multi-billion-dollar charge on the nuclear power unit it acquired last year from Chicago Bridge & Iron. Toshiba executives declined to provide further details about the write-down, adding that the sum would be finalized by mid-February.

Japan’s Takata could be close to settlement with the US Department of Justice over its massive exploding-airbag recall. The Wall Street Journal reports Takata is expected to pay up to $1 billion to resolve allegations of criminal wrongdoing in handling its faulty airbags. At least 184 people have been injured in the United States in incidents involving potentially deadly Takata air bags. Worldwide, approximately 100 million vehicles have been recalled.

Kate Spade might be for sale. The Wall Street Journal reports the handbag and accessory retailer is working with investment bankers about a possible sale of the company; share price jumped nearly 20% on the report. Kate Spade reported lower-than-expected quarterly same-store sales last month and said pricing competition would likely dampen earnings during the holiday shopping quarter.

GNC, the chain of nutrition stores, has temporarily shuttered all 4,464 of its U.S. locations, as it rolls out its revamped pricing strategy. The one-day closures come two months after the retailer admitted that inconsistent prices on its website and in stores, as well as discrepancies over what it charged loyalty members versus casual buyers, were making its locations confusing to shoppers.

While GNC expects its new, simplified pricing structure will bring more shoppers into its stores, there will be repercussions — at least in the short term. When the company raised prices on its website to better align with what shoppers pay in stores, the changes sparked a 30 percent quarterly decline in same-store sales.

Germany is considering fining social networks such as Facebook up to €500,000-euro for each day the platform leaves a “fake news” story up without deleting it. The law would force the social networks to create offices focused on responding to takedown demands and would make the networks responsible for compensation if a post by individual users were found to slander someone.

Can Amazon Echo testify against you? In what may be the first case of its kind, Amazon has denied investigators voice data from an Echo owned by an Arkansas man who has been charged with murder, despite a police warrant. The tech giant refused to hand over the audio data on two separate occasions, although it did share suspect’s account information and purchase history.

Amazon’s Echo (and its main competitor, the Google Home) works by passively recording everything you say. When the Echo hears “Alexa” (or whatever your activation phrase is), it begins to actively record. That snippet of speech is then sent to Amazon’s cloud servers, where your recorded message is run through a speech-recognition neural network and a response is sent back to you, whether that’s playing a song or giving you the weather forecast.

Police in Arkansas think the Echo may have recorded audio of a murder, although that kind of audio probably did not end up in Amazon’s cloud memory.

Come the new year, millions of the lowest-wage workers across the country will get a raise. Some of those raises will be very minor — a cost of living adjustment amounting to an extra nickel or dime an hour. But in several places the jump will be between $1 and $2 an hour. The biggest minimum wage raises, percentage wise, will be in Arizona (up 24% to $10), Maine (up 20% to $9) and three Silicon Valley cities (up 20% to $12). All told, the minimum wage is set to rise in 21 states, at least 22 cities, four counties and one region.

Americans spent $2.1 trillion in 2013 on diagnosis and treatment of health problems, which amounts to more than 17 percent of the total U.S. economy. And spending on health care for 2015 is estimated to top $3.2 trillion; that means Americans pay more for health care than any other country.

A new study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association reveals what patients and their insurers are spending that money on, breaking it down by 155 diseases, patient age and category, such as pharmaceuticals or hospitalizations.

About half of all health-care spending in the US goes to treat a small group of diseases, and diabetes is leading the pack, costing $101 billion in diagnosis and treatment in 2013. Heart disease, the second-largest source of expenses, cost a total of $88 billion that year. Medical spending increases with age — except for newborns. About 38 percent of personal health spending was for people over age 65.

More and more Americans are retiring outside of the United States, according to the Social Security Administration. The number increased 17 percent from 2010 to 2015, and about 400,000 American retirees are now living outside the country. The countries they have chosen most often: Canada, Japan, Mexico, Germany and the United Kingdom.

Thursday, October 27, 2016

Meh

Financial Review

Meh


DOW – 26 = 18,169
SPX – 6 = 2133
NAS – 34 = 5215
10 Y + .05 = 1.84%
OIL + .44 = 49.62
GOLD + 2.10 = 1240.00

This has been a tough month for global bonds and the selloff continued today. Treasuries tumbled and the dollar rose to a seven-month high amid increasing wagers the Federal Reserve will boost borrowing costs in December. Tomorrow we’ll get the first read on third quarter GDP, and it is expected to show a notable improvement after a sluggish first half. Traders sent bonds toward their worst month since 2014.

A few days ago we told you that Qualcomm was in talks with NXP Semiconductor; today they announced a deal. Qualcomm will acquire NXP for about $38 billion, or $47 billion including debt. Qualcomm will pay $110 a share in cash for each NXP share outstanding, which represents an 11% premium to Wednesday’s closing price.

Qualcomm has been a leader in chips for smartphones, a market which is starting to cool off. NXP, based in the Netherlands, became the world’s biggest maker of automotive electronics after it bought U.S.-based Freescale Semiconductor for about $12 billion last December. NXP provides chips for the Internet of Things, which includes everything from refrigerators to cars. By 2020, some 21 billion IoT devices will be in use worldwide, up from fewer than 5 billion last year.

This is the busy time for earnings reports; 60 S&P 500 companies report today; one-third of S&P companies are reporting this week.

After the closing bell, Alphabet (the parent company of Google) reported revenue rose 20% to $22.4 billion from $18.6 billion a year earlier. Net income rose to $5.06 billion, or $7.25 per Class A and B share and Class C capital stock, from $3.98 billion, or $5.73 per share, a year earlier. Beating estimates on the top and bottom lines.

Google’s Other Revenue, which includes the company’s increasingly important cloud business, jumped 38.8 percent after rising 33 percent in the second quarter. Alphabet’s Other Bets generated revenue of $197 million, but reported an operating loss of $865 million. Other Bets includes broadband business Google Fiber, home automation products Nest, self-driving cars as well as X, the company’s research facility that works on “moon shot” ventures. Alphabet also announced it would repurchase about $7 billion of its Class C stock. Shares moved a little higher in after-hours trade.

For years, Amazon.com would disappoint on earnings or more likely, losses. Then in the first quarter, Amazon posted strong earnings, and that set the bar high. Today Amazon did not clear that bar. The company posted EPS of $0.30, short of expectations for $0.82. Revenue came in at $32.7 billion, in line with estimates for $32.6.  Amazon Web Services (“AWS”) continues to be an important driver for the company, with third quarter revenue for the segment coming in at $3.2 billion, up 54%. Amazon issued fourth quarter guidance at the low range of estimates. Amazon is down almost 5% in after-hours trade.

Ford Motor’s net income fell 56% in the third quarter as safety-recall expenses and softer sales in the U.S. market cut profits. Ford reported net income of nearly $1 billion for the quarter, down from $2.2 billion recorded in the same year-ago period. Operating profit equaled 26 cents a share, beating estimates of 20 cents.

Volkswagen made €2.3-billion-euro in net profit in the third quarter after a massive loss a year ago over its emissions cheating scandal. VW also raised its full-year guidance for group revenue despite setting aside an additional €400-million-euro relating to Diesel-gate.

Deutsche Bank reported a third-quarter profit on lower than estimated litigation and restructuring costs, but set aside an additional €501-million-euro as it works to settle a mortgage probe with the Department of Justice. Net income came in at €256-million-euro compared with a €6-billion-euro loss in the year-earlier period.

The Deutsche Bank earnings call was one of the more interesting of this quarter. CEO John Cryan admitted that the bank is struggling, saying: “…we know that when our name is in the headlines for the wrong reasons, the phone doesn’t ring as frequently…. So, expect some revenue attrition.”

Samsung’s mobile division profit and global market share both went up in smoke in the third quarter as the damage from the company’s recalls and cancellation of its flagship Galaxy Note 7 began to take shape. Samsung’s revenue slid 7% on year to $42 billion and operating income tumbled 30% to $4.6 billion. Those were the bright points in Samsung’s report, believe it or not — Samsung’s mobile division reported operating income dropped a staggering 96% from the same quarter last year.

Nokia’s quarterly profit fell less than expected, boosted by resilient broadband demand and a patent licensing payment from Samsung.

Twitter reported slower revenue growth – even as revenue increased 8% and beat estimates. The company earned 13 cents per share, beating the average estimate of 9 cents. Twitter said it will cut 9 percent of its global workforce to keep costs down. After the report, Twitter announced it was shutting down Vine, the 6 second video looping app. We should all be thankful.

Aetna said revenue and profit rose in its latest quarter, topping estimates.

F5 Networks jumped nearly 10 percent and was the biggest gainer on the S&P, after its quarterly revenue beat estimates.

Belgium reached a deal with the country’s southern region of Wallonia to approve a trade agreement between the European Union and Canada, ending a deadlock that delayed the accord’s signature. The approval removes the last major obstacle for the EU and Canada to move ahead with one of the world’s most ambitious and far-reaching trade pacts. Wallonia’s stance had tied the hands of the Belgian federal government, which had been in favor of the agreement but needed the endorsement of regional authorities. The other 27 EU nations support the deal.

The UK economy grew in the three months after the Brexit vote. Britain appears to be shrugging off Brexit worries: its GDP grew 0.5% in the third quarter—analysts expected 0.3%—but it was down from 0.7% in the second quarter.

The number of people who applied for unemployment benefits last week fell by 3,000 to 258,000. Initial claims have been below the key 300,000 threshold for 86 straight weeks. The last time that happened was in 1970.

The National Association of Realtors’ pending home sales index hit 110.0, thanks to surging demand in the West and South. The index is now 2.4% higher than it was a year ago.

Orders for long-lasting goods made in the U.S. fell slightly in September, a weak performance owing largely to lower demand for military hardware and computers. Excluding defense spending, durable-goods orders rose 0.7%. Customers ordered more heavy machinery, new autos and commercial planes. Orders for autos climbed 1.2% and bookings for commercial aircraft accelerated by 12.5%.

Although the level of overall demand was decent enough, orders for core capital goods that are viewed as a key measure of business investment sank by the largest amount since February; down 1.2% last month and down 4.1% over the past year.

United Parcel Service said it ordered 14 Boeing 747-8 cargo jets, a deal worth $5.3 billion at list prices that potentially breathes new life into an aircraft Boeing had warned it might cancel. The UPS order, which includes options for 14 more of the hump-backed planes, suggests the freight company expects an upturn in air cargo after years of anemic growth.

 IPO news… A Shanghai-based logistics company tied to China’s online-shopping industry has raised $1.4 billion in the largest U.S. initial public offering so far this year. ZTO Express, which delivers parcels for businesses including Chinese e-commerce giants Alibaba and JD.com, priced its 72 million shares at $19.50 each, giving it a market value of more than $12 billion. The company trades under the ticker symbol “ZTO.” And the first day hit with a thud, down about 15%.

Apple unveiled its updated MacBook Pro today with a fingerprint reader and faster ports; it’s thinner, lighter, faster, brighter, etc. The Mac line accounted for about 11 percent of Apple sales in the just-finished fiscal year. Also, they came out with their big idea for TV and it’s an app. Try to curb your enthusiasm. The app will get you shows and movies from all your TV apps that you’re signed into and will show them on all your devices. And that’s all well and good but nothing seems earth shattering.

Exxon Mobil and accounting firm PwC must turn over documents related to the oil major’s representations of the impact of climate change on its business and assets, according to a New York Supreme Court ruling. New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman’s office asked the court in August to compel PwC to hand over the filings, but Exxon refused, citing accountant-client privilege.

Not only are Obamacare premiums on the rise for 2017, deductibles will also be getting more expensive, according to an analysis by insurance comparison site HealthPocket. Deductibles for individuals enrolled in the lowest-priced Obamacare health plans will average more than $6,000 next year, the first time that threshold has been cracked in the three years that Affordable Care Act marketplaces have been operating.

The latest National Weather Service forecast predicts wide variation in temperature and precipitation this winter across the U.S., capping off a year of record-breaking heat. Residents of the southern part of the U.S. from Los Angeles to Atlanta should expect above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation, while people in northern states from Washington to the Midwest should expect below-average temperatures and above-average precipitation. For Arizona, expect warm and dry, with no end in sight for the drought.

Friday, October 21, 2016

Wallonia World

Financial Review

Wallonia World


DOW – 16 = 18,145
SPX – 0.18 = 2141
NAS + 15 = 5257
10 Y – .01 = 1.74
OIL + .57 = 51.00
GOLD + .50 = 1266.70

The Dow and S&P 500 ended well off their lows of the session, while the Nasdaq rallied and all three indexes ended a string of back-to-back weekly declines. For the week, the Dow advanced 0.04%, the S&P gained 0.38% and the Nasdaq picked up 0.83%.

And we are seeing higher oil prices even as the dollar continues to strengthen, back to the highest level since February; the Dollar Index topped 98. A higher dollar should affect commodity prices as well as US exports. The US is likely to embark on raising interest rates in December while others such as England and the EU are still discussing easing monetary policies. The CME FedWatch Page now puts the odds of a rate hike in December at slightly over 74%.

There are no economic reports on today’s calendar but we do have speeches from a couple of Federal Reserve officials; Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo is kind of the Fed’s point person on regulation; he spoke today at the Columbia Law School and said the Fed may introduce new more measures to test big banks’ capital and liquidity levels are strong enough to safeguard the financial system.

San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams called for gradual rate hikes “sooner than later,” saying that waiting too long to do so could end up forcing sharp rate hikes that could choke economic growth. Williams is not a voting member of the FOMC this year. For Williams, raising rates soon and gradually has the best chance of keeping the economy growing without letting inflation get out of control, a circumstance that would require aggressive rate increases that could tip the economy into recession.

Last week Fed Chair Janet Yellen suggested that running a “high pressure economy” may be the best way to reverse damage from the financial crisis. That phrase was taken to mean a willingness to overshoot on the Fed’s inflation and employment goals for some time.

British American Tobacco has offered to acquire the 58% in Reynolds American it doesn’t already own for $47 billion in cash and shares. BAT’s proposal is worth $56.50 a share, or 20% above Reynold’s closing price of $47.17 yesterday. The deal would bring together Newport, Kent and Pall Mall cigarettes under one umbrella and create the world’s largest publicly traded tobacco company.

Qualcomm might finally put its cash to work. CNBC reports they have agreed in a handshake deal that Qualcomm will pay $110 a share for NXP Semiconductors, in a deal that would be close to $40 billion. Qualcomm has about $30 billion in cash, most of which is overseas, so acquiring a foreign company is attractive. NXP works on chips for cars, security and the internet of things, all emerging business for Qualcomm, which specializes in wireless technology like mobile phones.

AT&T and Time Warner are reportedly discussing a merger. The two sides held informal talks to discuss potential business opportunities, including a merger. Time Warner has a stock market value of nearly $73 billion. AT&T is much larger, with a market value of $231 billion. There seems to be a theme for wireless carriers to diversify by acquiring companies that offer content. And if you are experiencing a little déjà vu right now, it means you are probably old enough to remember the last time that Time Warner was one-half of a massive merger, a catastrophically ill-fated marriage to AOL 16 years ago.

At the time, AOL was an Internet juggernaut at the peak of the dot-com bubble, with a market cap of $224 billion and an aggressive appetite for growth. The deal made a certain sort of sense: Buying Time Warner would give AOL access to the old media company’s deep well of movies, TV programming and news, while Time Warner would be vaulted into the future of online distribution. “Synergy” was the buzzword. The deal went wrong; very, very wrong. AOL Time Warner had to write off $99 billion in goodwill. Just sayin.

Yesterday we told you the Wall Street Journal was planning major revisions to the newspaper, including combining sections. Today, word the paper is telling all news employees worldwide they are eligible for an “enhanced voluntary severance benefit” – that’s the first step; the next step is “involuntary layoffs”.

The earnings season is picking up pace as investors gauge the strength of corporations amid uneven economic growth. More than 80 percent of the S&P 500 Index’s companies that have released third-quarter results so far beat expectations, but it might not be enough to avoid another quarter of declining earnings.

Schlumberger reported earnings that beat estimates, but 82 percent lower than a year ago. The oilfield services company’s revenue fell slightly short of analyst forecasts. Schlumberger said there were early signs of recovery in most parts of the world, following a two-year slump in oil prices that put the brakes on global drilling activity.

McDonald’s reported third-quarter results that beat estimates. Global same-restaurant sales increased 3.5%, and same-restaurant sales in the U.S. grew 1.3%.

General Electric posted worse-than-expected revenue growth in its latest quarter. GE’s power, aviation and renewable energy segments drove industrial revenue growth, as transportation and oil and gas continued to post declines. GE said it would increase its stock-buyback program by $4 billion.

Two weeks ago, Honeywell lowered its sales and profit outlooks and preannounced the third-quarter results, saying an unexpectedly weak September and lackluster performance in the aerospace segment hurt profit. This morning, they reported results that matched the lowered expectations. For the fourth quarter, Honeywell expects sales to fall 7% to 9% due to weakness in the business jets, defense and space areas.

SAP SE climbed as it boosted its earnings and sales estimates.

Daimler AG fell amid a lower revenue forecast.

Ericsson AB slid after posting a loss.

Dyn is one of a number of outfits that host the Domain Name System, or DNS, which functions as a switchboard for the internet. The DNS translates user-friendly web addresses into numerical addresses that allow computers to speak to one another. Without the DNS servers operated by internet service providers, the internet could not operate.

And today, the internet stopped operating, at least for a while, mainly along the east coast. Dyn was attacked, a distributed denial of service attack where hackers flood the servers that run a target’s site with too much internet traffic, until the site collapses. In this case, the attack was aimed at the Dyn infrastructure that supports internet connections.

The result is that millions of internet users temporarily lost access to some of the world’s most popular websites, including: Twitter, Spotify, Reddit, CNN, Etsy and PayPal. It was a big attack, but it is too early to determine who was behind the attacks, but they appear to be precisely calibrated and on a very large scale.

It’s not just Samsung products that are overheating — Apple now has a problem, but with counterfeits. Apple said it has been buying accessories on Amazon bearing the Apple name and found that a whopping 90 percent of those are counterfeit. Even more troubling, Apple said, the phony products “pose an immediate threat to consumer safety,” because they haven’t been put through the rigorous industry standard testing Apple uses. Apple filed a lawsuit in U.S. District Court in San Francisco against Mobile Star, the company selling many of the products Apple bought on Amazon.
 
Will Japan ever escape deflation?
 This should come as no surprise to anyone, but Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda says the Bank of Japan may once again push back its 2% inflation target, which currently sits somewhere in fiscal 2017. Kuroda started his job in early 2013 and began his turbo-charged asset-purchase policy that continues to this day; he originally hoped that inflation would hit 2% by late 2014 or 2015. Almost four years later, inflation has disappeared after an initial rise.

U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May marks her first 100 days in office today, a term that has thus far been completely dominated by the Brexit debate. Prime Minister May clashed with her European counterparts in her first EU summit, where she was only allowed to give a brief update on Brexit over dinner. Though British diplomats have been calling for preparatory talks, EU leaders have remained united that no negotiations will occur until Article 50 of the EU’s treaty, which begins the official process to leave the EU, is triggered.

Have you ever heard of Wallonia? It is not some fictional country from a Marx Brothers movie, rather it is a province in Belgium, and it is the unlikely cog in the wheel of a trade deal between Canada and The Euro Union.

The fate of the trade pact with Canada — the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement, or CETA — has become a symbol of how the European Union’s ability to act decisively on the world stage is losing out to parochial concerns and rising discontent with globalization. Belgium’s prime minister can only sign off on the trade pact if all provinces approve. Wallonia’s prime minister opposes the deal because he says the accord could undermine public services and industries like farming.

MetLife decided earlier this year to cut most of its U.S. life-insurance business. Now it is cutting ties with Snoopy. The 148-year-old company first used the Peanuts’ cartoon character in advertising 31 years ago as it tried to connect with U.S. consumers.

Snoopy, created by cartoonist Charles Schulz, now appears on everything from MetLife blimps to the company’s marketing and sales materials. But that need to reach consumers will shrink when MetLife spins off the bulk of its U.S. life-insurance business in the first half of 2017. Afterward MetLife will sell mostly to corporate clients in the U.S.

Thursday, October 20, 2016

Nasty

Financial Review

Nasty


DOW – 40 = 18,162
SPX – 2 = 2141
NAS – 4 = 5241
10 Y un 1.75%
OIL – 1.21 = 50.61
GOLD – 3.70 = 1266.20

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits increased by 13,000 to 260,000 for the week ended October 15. That marked 85 straight weeks of claims below the 300,000 threshold normally associated with a strong jobs market, the longest such period since 1970. Part of the increase in claims last week could be related to the effects of Hurricane Matthew, which could have left some people temporarily out of work.

The National Association of Realtors reports existing home sales rose 3.2 percent to an annual rate of 5.47 million units, the quickest pace since June. The increase in existing home sales was broad-based across four major regions tracked by the NAR, with gains reported in the Northeast, Midwest, South and West.

Inventories remained tight, with 2.04 million homes on the market. That was up 1.5 percent from the prior month, but 6.8 percent lower than in September 2015; enough to push the median price up 5.6 percent from a year ago to $234,200 last month. The institutional investors who bought up homes in recent years have continued to rent them out rather than putting them on the market. The association said first-time home buyers accounted for 34 percent of the purchases, the most since July 2012.

Ryan Marshall, CEO of the homebuilder Pulte Group, laid out the state of the US housing market in one succinct quote. “With US new home sales for 2016 on track to grow in excess of 10% over last year, we believe housing demand remains on a sustained path of recovery fueled by ongoing job creation, low unemployment, a supportive interest rate environment, and a limited inventory of homes.”

Arizona’s unemployment rate dropped to 5.5% in September from 5.8% in August. Arizona gained 32,700 jobs in September, which is better than average. The private sector gained 3,800 jobs, with education and health services and construction showing solid advances, and manufacturing and financial activities lost jobs. Government added 28,900 jobs. Arizona Nonfarm employment grew by 2.3% (61,800 jobs) year over the year in September. The Private Sector accounted for all of the September gains, adding 61,900 jobs (2.8%). Government employment declined by 100 jobs in the 12 months through September.

The European Central Bank kept interest rates on hold at historic lows this morning and ECB President Mario Draghi said the Bank was committed to pursuing substantial asset purchases aimed at spurring growth and inflation. With the Eurozone economy enjoying what Draghi called “a moderate but steady” recovery, he defended the stimulus effort, saying: “low rates work.” To keep the asset buying program running smoothly, Draghi said the ECB was investigating using options. He added that they did not discuss tapering but that QE would not last forever.

Wells Fargo is being investigated on suspicion of identity theft. California prosecutors are looking into whether Wells Fargo’s creation of millions of fraudulent accounts constitutes identity theft. The California Attorney General’s Office has authorized a seizure warrant against the bank that seeks customer records and other documents, saying there is probable cause to believe the bank committed felonies. Federal prosecutors are also looking into the matter.

After the Senate Banking Committee held a hearing last month with the Wells Fargo CEO John Stumpf, who has since retired, it followed up with a letter containing 58 additional questions for the bank. Among them: What proportion of the harmed customers are old, members of ethnic minorities or military veterans?

Wells Fargo has not officially answered the question but former Wells employees are stepping up to provide answers; and they are describing predatory practices: Mexican immigrants who speak little English. Older adults with memory problems. College students opening their first bank accounts. Small-business owners with several lines of credit. In Arizona, the Salt River Pima-Maricopa Indian Community was targeted. And as new accounts were opened, there were fees, lots and lots of fees. One former employee described it as “lions hunting zebras.”

But wait, there’s more.  The bank is now out of good standing with a leading consumer watchdog group. Wells Fargo is no longer accredited by the Better Business Bureau, making it possibly the biggest business ever to fall into that category. The BBB website lists Wells Fargo as “not BBB accredited” and gives it a grade of “C-” on a scale of “A+” to “F.”

An adviser to the Court of Justice of the European Union has backed Intel’s appeal against a record $1.1 billion fine for antitrust violations and believes a lower court should review it. EU regulators imposed the penalty in 2009 for Intel’s attempts to stifle Advanced Micro Devices.

New Tesla vehicles will have full self-driving hardware built in. Eight surround cameras provide 360-degree visibility around the car at up to 250 meters of range, and the vehicles will also incorporate twelve updated ultrasonic sensors and forward-facing radar “capable of seeing through heavy rain, fog, dust and even the car ahead.”

Dow Jones is planning a substantial revamp at The Wall Street Journal as part of a review to better address costs in an effort to deal with an ongoing decline in print advertising. The “WSJ2020” plan will look to rebalance the news organization’s revenue streams as its customers' flock to digital formats and a revised version of the print newspaper will launch in the next few weeks with some sections consolidated. Dow Jones is owned by News Corp.

In a first of its kind, Sprint is set to issue $3.5 billion in five-year bonds that are backed by its wireless spectrum, which the telecom operator values at $16.4 billion. Investors seem to like the idea, with orders hitting $30 billion. The “air-wave bonds” are expected to yield 3.5%.

We have a couple of stories on big mergers – rumors really, but they are big, so here goes. Bloomberg reports Qualcomm is in the final stages of negotiations to buy NXP Semiconductors in what could be an all-cash deal for $110 to $120 per share. Qualcomm now has a market cap of around $99 billion, while NXP has a market cap of around $36 billion. The deal would be the largest in the history of the semiconductor industry.

Meanwhile, AT&T and Time Warner executives have held informal talks to discuss business strategies that could include a merger; neither side has hired an adviser. It’s also another indication that service providers are getting more and more interested in owning and investing in content. Verizon recently bought AOL and is in the process of acquiring Yahoo. AT&T merged with DirecTV last year.

Verizon Communications added far fewer wireless subscribers than expected in the third quarter. Operating revenue fell 6.5%. Smaller rivals such as T-Mobile and Sprint have rolled out aggressive promotions to win over Verizon’s subscriber base. As the company fends off competition in a maturing wireless market, it has acquired AOL and plans to buy Yahoo in a bid for a set of digital web properties and ad technology tools that will help it compete with internet giants Facebook and Google.

After the closing bell, Microsoft reported earnings of $0.76 on an adjusted basis. Analysts were expecting $0.68 per share. Revenue of $22.3 billion on an adjusted basis, 2.3% higher than the same period in 2015. Analysts were expecting $21.71 billion. Microsoft closed above $60, an all-time high, and the first all-time high since 1999.

Chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices reported a better-than-expected 23 percent increase in quarterly revenue, helped by higher demand for graphics chips used in gaming consoles.

American Airlines reported a slightly better-than-expected quarterly profit, helped by lower fuel costs. Still, net income fell to $737 million, or $1.40 per share, from $1.69 billion, or $2.49 per share, a year earlier.

Walgreens Boots Alliance shares slipped in early trading after the pharmacy chain missed fourth-quarter sales estimates. Walgreens now expects its acquisition of Rite Aid to close on Jan. 27, three months later than planned. Walgreens said in September it would likely have to divest between 500 and 1,000 stores to get regulatory clearance for the $9.4 billion deal.

Travelers was the top drag on the Dow, after the insurer posted a 22.8 percent drop in quarterly profit.

Union Pacific stock was down 6.7 percent after the company said weak demand for consumer goods had reduced the volume of its freight and coal shipments.

Canadian Pacific Railway reported another steep decline in revenue and lower-than-expected earnings on Wednesday as a delayed grain harvest and a slump in commodity prices hampered shipping volumes.

Earnings season always offers some entertaining justifications, and today it came from Dunkin Donuts. US same-store sales were higher than analysts had expected. However, revenue missed expectations. In response, Dunkin’ Brands CEO Nigel Travis cited several reasons for the weak performance, including “changes in gas prices, changes in food stamp regulations, and, of course, the overwhelming dampening effect of the presidential election.” Yeah, that’s it.

Of course the third and final presidential debate was last night and if you don’t think politics can affect business consider this. Within hours, dozens of sellers on Etsy had whipped up merchandise — T-shirts and buttons — bearing the slogans “nasty woman” and “bad hombres”; there is also a new perfume called “nasty woman” and Spotify reported that streams of Janet Jackson’s 1986 hit “Nasty” have increased 250%. Merriam Webster said “hombre” and “nasty” both topped its list of the most-searched words during the debate.