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Showing posts with label Puerto Rico. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Puerto Rico. Show all posts

Thursday, October 12, 2017

Face Mask Shortage

Financial Review

Face Mask Shortage


DOW – 31 = 22,841
SPX – 4 = 2550
NAS – 12 = 6591
RUT – 1 = 1505
10 Y – .02 = 2.32%
OIL – .64 = 50.66
GOLD + 2.00 = 1294.10

Cryptocurrency

  • Number of Currencies: 877
  • Total Market Cap: $164,996,772,967
  • 24H Volume: $5,136,518,497

Top Cryptocurrencies

  Name Symbol Price USD Market Cap Vol. Total Vol. % Price BTC Chg. % 1D Chg. % 7D
  Bitcoin BTC 5,422.1 $90.30B $2.77B 53.86% 1 +12.38% +25.32%
  Ethereum ETH 302.78 $28.93B $525.92M 10.24% 0.0562321 -0.20% +2.84%
  Ripple XRP 0.24670 $9.65B $243.79M 4.75% 0.00004618 -6.02% +5.83%
  Bitcoin Cash BCH 310.66 $5.25B $261.82M 5.10% 0.0581277 -0.71% -12.08%
  Litecoin LTC 58.950 $3.17B $334.89M 6.52% 0.0109966 +16.11% +15.25%
  Dash DASH 293.87 $2.23B $42.68M 0.83% 0.0540024 -1.40% -4.04%
  NEM XEM 0.20478 $1.85B $4.40M 0.09% 0.00003806 -4.80% -2.78%
  NEO NEO 28.353 $1.38B $59.75M 1.16% 0.0050969 -5.80% -15.13%
  BitConnect BCC 187.652 $1.34B $15.57M 0.30% 0.0346751 +12.59% +34.78%
  Monero XMR 87.00 $1.32B $32.67M 0.64% 0.0160682 -0.55% -4.89%

For the past 7 years, Republicans have been trying to repeal Obamacare. This year they tried repeal and replace, skinny repeal, and basic repeal – all failed. Now Trump has signed an executive order directing federal agencies to look for ways to expand the use of association health plans, groups of small businesses that pool together to buy health insurance, and to broaden the definition of short-term insurance, which is exempt from the Affordable Care Act’s rules.

The ultimate impact will depend on any new regulations written because of the order, but overall, the Trump administration could make cheaper plans with skimpier benefits more available. The clear intent of the executive order is to create a parallel insurance market exempt from many of the consumer protections in the Affordable Care Act.

An association health plan is a way for a group of small businesses to pool together to buy insurance, giving them more purchasing power and access to cheaper premiums. The most famous examples have been farm bureaus, which allowed independent farming businesses to band together and get insurance. National associations could skirt state mandates, and pick plans with cheaper premiums.

The problem with those plans is that they provide almost no coverage. Think of them as don’t get sick plans. Small businesses left in Obamacare’s marketplace would face higher costs and fewer options as the market became less attractive to insurers. The individuals likely to flee the Obamacare markets for association plans would probably be younger and healthier, leaving behind an older, sicker pool for the remaining ACA market.

That has the makings of a death spiral, with ever-increasing premiums and insurers deciding to leave the market altogether. This has the potential to siphon off healthy people with skinnier benefits and cheaper premiums, leaving behind a sicker pool of people under ACA plans.

We have an actual example in Tennessee, where a Farm Bureau association has been operating through a state loophole; some 23,000 people are in the association – they don’t have to be farmers. Those 23,000-people buying the skimpier health plan are presumably younger and healthier.

Segmenting those people out of the Obamacare marketplace raises premiums for everyone else left behind. The Society of Actuaries estimated in 2016 that Tennessee’s marketplace has the sickest enrollees in the entire country. The state also has some of the highest Obamacare premiums in the entire country, too. The basic rule of insurance is the law of large numbers – the bigger the insured pool, the more evenly risk and cost is spread.

Trump’s executive order also looks to expand what’s called short-term limited duration insurance. These short-term policies typically have higher out-of-pocket costs and cover fewer services than traditional insurance. They were designed for people who, for example, expect to be out of work, and therefore without insurance, for a limited period.

That kind of coverage is totally free from the health care law’s insurance regulations: the mandate to cover essential health benefits, the prohibition on charging sick people more than healthy people or denying people coverage based on their medical history, and so on.

Trump has technically asked federal agencies to consider issuing new regulations that achieve the executive order’s goals. That’s all. Federal rule-making takes some time, months upon months. Don’t expect any changes before the end of the year. We don’t know if the changes would be compliant with the individual mandate. Expect challenges to the order. So, for now at least, the effect of the order is to sow confusion and uncertainty in the health insurance market for insurance companies and customers.

Today Trump lashed out at hurricane-devastated Puerto Rico, insisting in tweets that the federal government can’t keep sending help “forever”. In a series of tweets, Trump added, “electric and all infrastructure was disaster before hurricanes.” He blamed Puerto Rico for its looming financial crisis and “a total lack of accountability.”

At the same time, the House passed, on a sweeping 353-69 vote, a $36.5 billion disaster aid package that includes assistance for Puerto Rico’s financially-strapped government. House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., said the government needs to ensure that Puerto Rico can “begin to stand on its own two feet” and said the U.S. has “got to do more to help Puerto Rico rebuild its own economy.”

About 85 percent of Puerto Rico residents still lack electricity and the government says it hopes to have electricity restored completely by March. More than one-third of the population does not have access to potable water. At least 4 deaths are reported linked to infections from dirty water. Though officials say 45 people have died in Puerto Rico in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria, anecdotal reports suggest that number is much higher.

A recent Vox investigation tallied over 500 deaths that could be linked to the hurricane, in addition to another 69 people who are still missing following the storm. We don’t know an exact number – but it will be more than 45 and it will grow in coming weeks.

There is a face mask shortage in San Francisco. This morning, the air quality in the Bay Area was worse than in Beijing, which is notorious for having some of the unhealthiest air in the world. In what is being called one of the worst firestorms in California history, smoke heavy with soot continues to blow across the state.

In San Francisco, more than an hour’s drive south from the epicenter of the blazes in Santa Rosa, many people are wearing face masks to shield themselves from the pollution that hangs like a curtain in the hazy air. Local hardware stores have sold out of face masks. The forecast for the next few days in the region is that the air quality is going to get worse.

The death toll from California’s wildfires continues to increase, with a total of 29, matching California’s deadliest blaze, the 1933 Griffith Park blaze in Los Angeles. The number is expected to climb. Officials say there are around 8,000 firefighters currently fighting the flames with more help pouring in from neighboring states every day.

Dangerous winds have been whipping up off and on, not only in Napa but in Sonoma County, too. Despite the threat, officials are sending targeted search teams into burned areas to find hundreds of people still unaccounted for. Some 3,500 homes and businesses have been destroyed by the blazes.

As the wildfires raged for a fourth day, they have continued to grow and cross county lines, as 45 miles per hour winds whipped the flames and negated almost all efforts to contain the fires. A total count of 22 fires on Wednesday changed to 21 today because two large fires had merged together.

JPMorgan Chase easily beat Wall Street’s third-quarter profit expectations, with loan growth and higher interest rates more than offsetting weakness in its markets-related unit. Overall, JPMorgan’s profit rose 7.1 percent in the third quarter compared with the year-ago period, to $6.73 billion, or $1.76 per share. Analysts had expected earnings of $1.65 per share.

Citigroup reported third-quarter earnings of $1.42 per share, a nearly 8% beat. Wall Street estimated earnings of $1.32 per share. Revenues grew 2% year-over-year to $18.2 billion, beating estimates of $17.8 billion. The bottom line benefited from the $355 million gain on the sale of its fixed-income analytics business, which added $0.13 in earnings per share. EPS was down 2%, excluding this item. Fixed-income trading took a 16% hit year-over-year.

Both JPMorgan and Citigroup say that they boosted their reserves for consumer-loan losses by the most in more than four years. Both lenders set aside money last quarter because they expected write-offs for credit-card lending to climb in periods ahead, with Citigroup saying the increase is coming faster than it had anticipated.

AT&T, the No. 2 U.S. wireless carrier, which owns satellite television service DirecTV, said that it lost 90,000 U.S. video subscribers in the quarter due to intense competition in traditional pay TV markets and the impact of the recent hurricanes.

AT&T said it added roughly 300,000 subscribers to DirecTV Now, its cheaper option for customers who want to stream television over the internet. That means the company lost 390,000 subscribers to its satellite and U-verse services, which are considered higher-value customers.

Rising energy costs led prices at the wholesale level to climb 0.4% in September. The producer price index, which measures inflation pressures before they reach the consumer, has risen 2.6% over the past 12 months. September’s burst of inflation is likely the result of oil refineries shuttering along the Gulf of Mexico due to Hurricane Harvey toward the end of August. As a result, gasoline prices surged 10.9% in September.

Initial jobless claims fell by 15,000 to 243,000 in the first week of October to mark the lowest level in six weeks.

Equifax has taken one of its customer help website pages offline as its security team considers reports of another potential cyber breach at the credit reporting company, which recently disclosed a hack that compromised the sensitive information of more than 145 million people.

The move came after an independent security analyst found part of Equifax’s website was under the control of attackers trying to trick visitors into installing fraudulent Adobe Flash updates that could infect computers with malware. So, people who were afraid their data had been stolen, went to the site and infected their computers with malware.

Wednesday, October 04, 2017

Wipe Out

Financial Review

Wipe Out


DOW + 19 = 22,661 (Record)
SPX + 3 = 2537 (Record)
NAS + 2 = 6534 (Record)
RUT – 4 = 1507
10 y un= 2.33%
OIL – .52 = 49.90
GOLD + 3.50 = 1275.60

Cryptocurrency

  • Number of Currencies: 882
  • Total Market Cap: $141,383,357,373
  • 24H Volume: $2,829,934,428

Top Cryptocurrencies

  Name Symbol Price USD Market Cap Vol. Total Vol. % Price BTC Chg. % 1D Chg. % 7D
  Bitcoin BTC 4,160.0 $69.41B $1.16B 40.99% 1 -1.33% -0.63%
  Ethereum ETH 288.28 $27.52B $275.44M 9.73% 0.0695521 -1.07% -4.57%
  Ripple XRP 0.21870 $8.49B $307.66M 10.87% 0.00005313 +2.28% +10.83%
  Bitcoin Cash BCH 350.26 $5.88B $304.62M 10.76% 0.0846327 -1.57% -22.15%
  Litecoin LTC 50.560 $2.70B $80.31M 2.84% 0.0121508 -1.31% -9.12%
  Dash DASH 295.00 $2.27B $42.78M 1.51% 0.0717433 -2.26% -12.56%
  NEM XEM 0.21516 $1.88B $3.00M 0.11% 0.00005023 +1.30% -13.41%
  NEO NEO 29.589 $1.48B $60.65M 2.14% 0.00710292 -5.17% -2.88%
  IOTA MIOTA 0.52500 $1.47B $8.71M 0.31% 0.00012679 -3.62% -3.07%
  Monero XMR 88.00 $1.35B $26.69M 0.94% 0.0213148 -2.18% -10.66%

The Institute for Supply Management’s index of service-oriented companies  jumped to a 12-year high of 59.8% in September from 55.3%. The last time the index was higher was in August 2005. Numbers over 50% are viewed as positive for the economy and anything over 55% is considered exceptional.

ADP reports private-sector employment slowed in September as firms added 135,000 jobs. The ADP data, produced in conjunction with Moody’s Analytics, may be more important than usual this month as it should be much less affected by hurricanes than the government data.

Workers are included in ADP payrolls even if they are not paid due to bad weather. Still, Moody’s Analytics’ Chief Economist Mark Zandi said hurricanes Harvey and Irma cut job gains by 50,000-60,000 jobs, mainly by forcing smaller “mom-and-pop” retailers to close.

Friday’s Nonfarm Payroll report will be a little crazy, with estimates all over the place due to the hurricanes. The number I’m hearing is 100,000 jobs, which would be very weak, but not enough to change the Fed’s outlook since it will be just a one-month blip in the data. This could provide a nice setup for dollar bulls. We have strong economic data but a weak jobs number could offer a minor, fleeting dip.

In a bizarre moment on Tuesday, Trump told Fox News that he was “gonna have to wipe out” Puerto Rico’s debt. Trump said: “We are going to work something out. We have to look at their whole debt structure. You know they owe a lot of money to your friends on Wall Street. We’re gonna have to wipe that out. That’s gonna have to be — you know, you can say goodbye to that. I don’t know if it’s Goldman Sachs but whoever it is, you can wave goodbye to that.”

It isn’t clear how Puerto Rico’s debt could just be made to disappear outside bankruptcy court. Still, to “wipe out” $74 billion in municipal debt, billions of which are guaranteed by the island’s constitution, would shake investor faith in a market long considered one of the safest of havens.

Lower-rated municipal borrowers would almost certainly see their borrowing costs rise to account for the added risk. The debt is widely held, by hedge funds, pensions and residents of the territory. Many of the hedge funds could be considered vulture investors who swooped in after Puerto Rico was already in trouble, buying up debt for pennies on the dollar and hoping to force payment at full par. But the biggest chunk of Puerto Rico’s debt is pension obligations.

The commonwealth’s budget is under the control of a federally appointed oversight board mandated as part of the bankruptcy legislation. Created by Congress to wield broad sway over the territory’s finances, the panel approves the island’s budget and is meant to help make unpalatable decisions such as closing schools and cracking down on tax evasion.

In addition to the existing debt, damages from Hurricanes Irma and Maria are expected to run about $35 billion, or a per capita cost of about $10,000 per citizen of Puerto Rico. The power grid is destroyed and it might be 6 months or more to have electric service restored; the tourism industry is in dire straits and the economy is a mess. Puerto Rico doesn’t have money to repair the hurricane damage, much less to pay off its earlier debt.

After Trump’s remarks, a shudder went through the $3.8 trillion muni bond market and Puerto Rican bondholders freaked. Puerto Rico’s beaten-down benchmark bonds plummeted from an already unprecedented 44 cents on the dollar to as little as 30 cents.

If Puerto Rico’s $74 billion in debt can just be wiped away, what does that mean for the rest of the muni bond market. That doomsday scenario, of course, is contingent upon Trump’s being able to cancel all the commonwealth’s debt, amassed over decades and enabled by a yield-hungry Wall Street.

There’s no indication he has a plan to do so. Administration officials, as they’ve done throughout his presidency, quickly walked his comments back. Soon after, Trump’s budget head Mick Mulvaney told CNN not to take the president “word for word”.

On Monday, Catalonian politicians will try to hold a parliamentary session to evaluate the October 1 vote to secede from Spain. Then they are expected to declare their independence. What happens after that remains a mystery. Spain and the EU say the independence vote was illegal. Spain’s High Court launched an investigation against top Catalan police and organizers on suspicion of inciting rebellion against the state, just hours after the Spanish king charged that the Barcelona separatists were acting “outside the law and outside democracy.”

As the king addressed the nation, trade unions in Catalonia led a powerful general strike that shut down businesses, highways and schools in a mass protest against police violence. Protesters took to the streets. Stay tuned.

Richard Smith, the recently-former CEO of Equifax testified before the Senate Judiciary subcommittee today. Smith said the Equifax data breach happened because of a breakdown in communication at the company. They knew their software was vulnerable and needed to be fixed but the tech guy never patched the glitch.

Smith didn’t say who the tech guy was but said he has since been fired. Senator Al Franken gave the unknown tech guy a name – Gus; saying, “Why is the security of 145 million people all in the hands of one guy? Why is it all up to Gus?”

If Smith knows Gus’s real name, he kept it to himself. But Gus may not be entirely at fault. Smith said it’s possible “this one guy” didn’t know all of Equifax’s various business portals were using the faulty software. Later security scans didn’t detect the vulnerability either. Equifax made more missteps after it publicly disclosed the hack Sept. 7.

A customer service representative – let’s call this one Sam – tasked with responding to customers’ Tweets sent out incorrect links to the website the company created to help consumers sign up for credit monitoring. Instead, that person was tweeting out links to a phishing website with a similar name. Sam, the customer service representative is no longer with the company.

Richard Smith resigned with a multi-million-dollar golden parachute and still refuses to accept responsibility. The hearing drew a silent protester dressed like the Monopoly man character, (you know – Rich Uncle Pennybags in top hat, monocle) who sat in the audience behind Smith but in the range of the video camera. She was there to protest forced arbitration.

Equifax’s initial offer of free credit monitoring after the hack would have made consumers accept arbitration to settle disputes with the company, something Smith has said was a mistake and has since been removed.

Google held a splashy press event in San Francisco today. They showed off the second generation of various Google devises, including: two new versions of its Pixel smartphone; a new premium laptop; a cheaper, smaller model of its Home speaker and a larger version designed for music. All the products go head-on with recent offerings from Apple and Amazon. Those two rivals are aggressively shipping devices with built-in features, like voice-assistance and augmented reality, that could upend how people access information — Google’s main business.

Google’s latest device refresh is all about making sure it can claim a lead in that next era of computing, and keep its services front-and-center in people’s lives – and that means a sharp focus on its artificial intelligence software. Google owns Android, the software behind most smartphones, but it has long struggled with ways to tame its many hardware partners and make them competitive with Apple’s iPhones.

Apple tightly controls hardware and software, and has lured consumers with mobile payments, its voice-based Siri assistant and initial forays into augmented reality, technology that splices the digital and physical worlds. Amazon, meanwhile, has emerged as a viable contender in the smart home market with its assistant, Alexa, and a seemingly unending suite of Echo gadgets.

Samsung, which makes Android phones has tried to push its own, new voice assistant – Bixby – which is still light years behind Google assistant. My pick for the coolest gadget unveiled go to Google Pixel Buds – wireless headphones or earbuds, which can be paired with Google Assistant and can provide live translation of up to 40 languages.

The International Energy Agency reports solar power grew faster than any other source of fuel for the first time in 2016. The IEA says 165 gigawatts of renewables were completed last year, which was two-thirds of the net expansion in electricity supply. Solar powered by photovoltaics, or PVs, grew by 50 percent, with almost half of new plants built in China. Solar PV capacity growth will be higher than any other renewable technology through 2022.

This marks the sixth consecutive year that clean energy has set records for installations. The IEA expects about 1,000 gigawatts of renewables will be installed in the next five years. China is the undisputed leader in renewables and solar, installing more than 2 times the gigawatt capacity of the US, and accounting for close to half of the global market.

On Monday, the US Supreme Court threw out an appeal in a trademark suit brought by Louis Vuitton against a California company that makes tote bags featuring cartoon drawings of … Louis Vuitton bags. (“Permissible parody,” the court ruled.)

Tuesday, October 03, 2017

Chugging Higher

Financial Review

Chugging Higher


DOW + 84 = 22,641 (Record)
SPX + 5 = 2534 (Record)
NAS + 15 = 6531 (Record)
RUT + 2 = 1511 (Record)
10 Y un = 2.33%
OIL – .22 = 50.36
GOLD + .60 = 1272.10

Cryptocurrency

  • Number of Currencies: 882
  • Total Market Cap: $145,958,421,271
  • 24H Volume: $2,700,484,118

Top Cryptocurrencies

Name Symbol Price USD Market Cap Vol. Total Vol. % Price BTC Chg. % 1D Chg. % 7D
Bitcoin BTC 4,303.1 $71.57B $1.25B 46.19% 1 -0.17% +9.72%
Ethereum ETH 293.54 $28.43B $323.58M 11.98% 0.0694896 +0.63% +3.64%
Ripple XRP 0.20458 $7.81B $47.54M 1.76% 0.00004726 +0.79% +7.14%
Bitcoin Cash BCH 401.20 $6.70B $122.68M 4.54% 0.093442 +0.20% -9.19%
Litecoin LTC 52.090 $2.78B $85.44M 3.16% 0.0121102 -0.12% -0.06%
Dash DASH 299.53 $2.28B $37.18M 1.38% 0.0695331 +1.10% -11.72%
NEM XEM 0.22378 $2.00B $3.40M 0.13% 0.00005162 +0.76% -3.36%
NEO NEO 33.450 $1.68B $71.82M 2.66% 0.00777794 +0.01% +19.01%
IOTA MIOTA 0.55687 $1.55B $14.12M 0.52% 0.0001292 -0.67% +7.25%
Monero XMR 92.91 $1.40B $43.06M 1.59% 0.0214919 -0.38% -1.47%

The S&P 500, the Dow, Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 indexes all posted record high closes for the second straight day. Enjoy it while you can.

The market has been slowly, steadily climbing. The more unusual factor is that it hasn’t been dropping. Even in a secular bull market we have pullbacks but dips as small as even 3% have been in incredibly short supply. If you’ve been waiting to buy the dips – sorry – there are no dips.

Historically speaking, on average, the domestic equity market corrects every 11 months—the last correction was in November 2015. Meanwhile, on average, the U.S. equity market dips three to four times per year. The last dip was in June 2016.

In addition to the nearly nonexistent downside, market volatility has also been hard to come by. Thus far this year, the S&P 500 SPX has only closed with a 1% move in either direction in eight sessions. That’s on track to be the fewest such moves since 1995, when there were 13. A larger move, such as a 4% swing in a day, hasn’t occurred in nearly six years.

Throughout 2017, Wall Street has been supported by signs of improving economic conditions, including better-than-expected earnings and strong data. Third-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies are expected to have risen 5.5 percent from a year earlier, according to Thomson Reuters research, after rising a stronger-than-expected 12.3 percent in the second quarter.

That might be enough to keep stocks rolling along, even though valuations are sky high. Just how long the market keeps chugging uphill is hard to say but it won’t last forever. And we are closer to the end of the bull market than the beginning. It’s easy to be lulled into complacency and that can be expensive.

Stay alert to telltale signs.

Major U.S. stock indexes have reached new highs again this week, but one very important part of the market is sending a very disturbing signal. The technology-stock-heavy Nasdaq 100, stuffed with names such as Apple, Amazon.com and Facebook, crossed the 6,000 level for the sixth time in a month on Monday, but again failed to hold on. It has closed above that mark just once, on Sept. 13.

Large speculators last week reduced their net long positions in mini futures tracking the gauge to the lowest level since May 2016. And one more thing – don’t forget the Fed. This month the Federal Reserve transitions to a more restrictive monetary policy program known as quantitative tightening under which it starts shrinking its $4.47 trillion balance sheet.

Making his first appearance in Puerto Rico since Hurricane Maria’s landfall, Trump offered a hearty round of congratulations to federal relief efforts, giving them and him a grade of A+.

It didn’t take long until he offered a strange comparison on hurricanes, saying: “Every death is a horror, but if you look at a real catastrophe like Katrina, and you look at the tremendous hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of people that died, and you look at what happened here and what is your death count? Sixteen people, versus in the thousands,” Trump said. “You can be very proud. Sixteen versus literally thousands of people.”

That’s kind of like saying the wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald was great because it wasn’t nearly as bad as the sinking of the Titanic. The American citizens of Puerto Rico might argue that Maria is just as real a catastrophe as Katrina. And while the official death count is 16, it hasn’t been updated in at least 5 days the unofficial count is growing rapidly. Most of the island is still blacked out. Clean water and sanitation is still a huge problem. The recovery is just beginning.

Automakers posted higher new vehicle sales in September as consumers in hurricane-hit parts of the country replaced flood-damaged cars. Up to 500,000 to 1 million cars were damaged or destroyed during Harvey and another 200,000 cars during Irma. GM’s sales jumped nearly 12 percent versus September 2016 as a 43 percent increase in sales of crossovers and a 10 percent rise for pickup trucks offset an 11 percent decline for passenger cars.

Ford sales rose 8.7 percent in September, with sales to consumers up 4.4 percent and lower-margin fleet sales up 25.1 percent. F-Series pickup truck sales soared 21.4 percent. Side note: today Ford offered up plans to cut $14 billion in costs, using part of that money to go deeper into electric cars, and allocate more money to SUVs and trucks rather than cars.

Fiat Chrysler reported a 10 percent decline in sales, driven by a 41 percent drop in lower-margin fleet sales. The company is cutting back on fleet sales. Fiat’s sales to consumers rose 0.3 percent. Since Harvey made landfall, GM stock has risen 24 percent, Ford is up 16 percent and Fiat Chrysler has rocketed 44 percent.

If you plan to buy a used car — and that goes for anywhere in the country –  there are steps you should take to make sure you don’t drive away in a car that was flooded. Cars have a record — known as a “vehicle history report.” Most states require that the report include a flood or salvage title disclosure for flood-damaged cars. Using the vehicle identification number, located on the driver’s side dashboard, you can check the car’s history. Cars are basically rolling computers and even after the water dries, problems can crop up.

Former Equifax CEO Richard Smith — who retired last week — was on Capitol Hill today to testify about the company’s massive data breach, which potentially put the personal data of as many as 145 million consumers in the hands of criminals. Just yesterday, the number of consumers potentially affected in the breach was revised upward.

For three hours, Republicans and Democrats on a House Energy and Commerce subcommittee blasted Equifax for allowing its trove of consumer data to be hacked and then bungling the rollout of measures to help consumers deal with the breach. There was unanimous agreement that Equifax was a colossal, stupid failure. Ah, bipartisanship at last.

It is recommended that all consumers should assume their information was compromised and take steps to protect their credit – first, by monitoring their credit report or better yet, freeze your credit. The basic benefit of freezing your credit report is that if a scammer attempts to take out a loan or establish credit using your personal information, the lender will be unable to check your credit score or history and generally won’t approve the application.

Yet to do so costs anywhere from $2 to $10. Only eight states require that credit be offered free of charge, which means about 158 million consumers between ages 18 and 65 would face a hefty tab – to the tune of over $4 billion.

In some states, you’ll also pay a fee to unfreeze your report when you need a lender to approve a valid application. Equifax is offering all consumers free credit-monitoring for a year, with a signup deadline now set for Jan. 31, 2018. The service includes free freezes. The problem with that is it still leaves fees at the other two major credit-reporting firms, TransUnion and Experian.

Now you might think the hack is bad for business but Equifax has picked up a new customer – the IRS. The Internal Revenue Service will pay Equifax $7.25 million to verify taxpayers’ identities and help prevent fraud under a no-bid contract issued last week. According to a report in Politico the credit agency will “verify taxpayer identity” and “assist in ongoing identity verifications and validations” at the IRS.

Yahoo said last December that data from more than 1 billion user accounts was compromised in August 2013. Today Yahoo, now part of Verizon, said that an investigation showed all 3 billion of its user accounts were affected in a 2013 data theft, tripling its earlier estimate of the largest breach in history. However, the company said the investigation indicated that the stolen information did not include passwords in clear text, payment card data, or bank account information.

The new rule of thumb – unless you are a complete Luddite – you have been hacked.

Wells Fargo’s chief executive Timothy Sloan testified before the Senate Banking Committee today and defended the bank against criticism from lawmakers that it has not done enough to reform itself since admitting last year it had opened millions of fake accounts customers didn’t want. In prepared testimony, Sloan apologized for the creation of unauthorized accounts and said the bank has hired back more than 1,000 workers who were wrongly fired or left under a cloud.

This year marks the 11th consecutive annual increase in bank ATM fees for customers using out-of-network machines, according to a new Bankrate.com report. Over the past decade, such fees have risen 55 percent. The average cost of such a transaction is now over $4.50.

ATM fees aren’t rising due to overwhelming demand. In fact, it’s the opposite. It keeps getting easier to avoid the fees, and people are transitioning away from cash. With fewer people making out-of-network ATM withdrawals, the cost of maintaining that network is being spread over fewer transactions.

Thursday, September 28, 2017

A Stickler for Math

Financial Review

A Stickler for Math


DOW + 40 = 22,381
SPX + 3 = 2510 (record)
NAS + 0.19 = 6453
RUT + 3 = 1488 (record)
10 Y un = 2.31%
OIL – .56 = 51.58
GOLD + 4.30 = 1287.70

Cryptocurrency

  • Number of Currencies: 872
  • Total Market Cap: $137,946,002,185
  • 24H Volume: $4,334,119,332

Top Cryptocurrencies

  Name Symbol Price USD Market Cap Vol. Total Vol. % Price BTC Chg. % 1D Chg. % 7D
  Bitcoin BTC 4,092.0 $67.23B $1.69B 38.97% 1 -2.27% 9.86%
  Ethereum ETH 286.29 $26.77B $548.51M 12.66% 0.0693121 -5.36% 6.77%
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The S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 hit record high closes. The S&P is up 1.5 percent this month, on track for its sixth consecutive monthly gain. September is normally the worst month for stocks.

The Commerce Department released its third and final estimate of second quarter Gross Domestic Product. Second quarter GDP was revised to 3.1%, up from the earlier estimate of 3%. Growth last quarter was the quickest since the first quarter of 2015 and followed a 1.2 percent pace in the January-March period.

With GDP accelerating in the second quarter, the economy grew 2.1 percent in the first half of 2017. Hurricane damage is expected to put a dent in third quarter GDP, but give a little boost to fourth quarter numbers. Estimates for the growth rate in the July-September period are just above 2.2 percent.

Details of the Republican tax plan have yet to be filled in, so we can’t say yet who would pay what. The 9-page proposal released yesterday specifies three income tax brackets — 12%, 25%, and 35% — but it doesn’t say what income levels they would apply to.

It says the $4,050 exemption that taxpayers currently get for each dependent child would be abolished, to be replaced with an unspecified increase in the per-child credit. It says tax-writing committees would provide families “additional tax relief” that they are not prepared to describe yet.

And because Senate rules will require the plan to fit within a budget resolution that will most likely allow only $1.5 trillion in revenue losses over a decade, lawmakers will have to trim its proposed tax cuts — or add new tax increases — to meet that specification before it can become law.

While there is a lot we don’t know, we can identify a group of taxpayers likely to face tax increases from this proposal: people with moderate to upper-moderate incomes who take itemized deductions, like those for mortgage interest and state and local taxes paid.

Some of these deductions would be eliminated. And while Republicans like to misleadingly claim that their plan would “double the standard deduction,” these itemizing taxpayers would lose the ability to take the personal exemption for themselves or their spouses, subjecting an additional $8,100 of their income to tax.

While these taxpayers would lose key tax benefits, rich taxpayers would come out ahead. The rich would benefit from a new preferential rate for business income — while high-income workers could pay tax at rates as high as 35%, business owners would have tax on their profits capped at 25%.

Today, Chief economic adviser Gary Cohn told reporters that a typical four-person American family bringing in $100,000 a year would save $1,000 under the Republicans’ proposed tax reform effort, which they could use to pay for a new car or a kitchen. Or not.

Cohn didn’t explain the math behind the $1,000 in savings but the rest of the math is wrong. In actuality, the average American family makes $74,000 a year before taxes, or about $30,000 less than that, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The median American family income is roughly half of Cohn’s estimate, or only about $55,000.

And I don’t think I can remodel my kitchen or buy a new car for $1,000. Cohn also claimed, “The wealthy are not getting a tax cut under our plan.” That’s simply not true. This is a huge tax cut for the top 1 percent. Math will be an important part of any tax plan, something the politicians haven’t figured out yet.

Puerto Rico is struggling to recover from what its governor called its “biggest catastrophe in modern history,” with Hurricane Maria’s devastation spiraling the country into a humanitarian crisis. After much criticism that the U.S. was not doing enough to help, Trump waived the Jones Act to speed up shipments to the island.

The Jones Act is a 1920 law that prohibits foreign boats from shuttling goods between US harbors. That will make it a bit easier to get food, water, and other products to Puerto Rican ports. But it will have little impact on what is a more pressing problem. Getting supplies from those ports to the people who need them.

Thousands of cargo containers bearing millions of emergency meals and other relief supplies have been piling up on San Juan’s docks since Saturday. Even with moves to ease shipping to the island, the docks have become choke points in the effort to aid storm survivors and may not reach those who need them for days. If nothing else, Maria is a cautionary tale about the vulnerabilities of the supply chain.

The Facebook group United Muslims of America was neither united, Muslim, nor American. Among their various tactics, Russians impersonated real American Muslims to stir chaos on Facebook and Instagram. (And let’s not leave out Twitter, since the Russians didn’t).

Twitter today disclosed to congressional investigators that more than 200 Russia-linked accounts had been used to spread propaganda and misinformation on the company’s platform. The company said that, over the coming months, it will be introducing new ways to detect malicious activity, although it did not provide specifics.

The European Union is once again asking Facebook, Google, Twitter, and other web companies to crack down on hate speech and speech inciting violence and terrorism — but this time, it’s taking things a step further. The European Commission has issued guidelines for web companies to follow, and it’s warning the companies that, if they don’t comply, the Commission may pass legislation. And that legislation, of course, could lead to some huge fines.

The Supremes are back on the bench. The Supreme Court kicked off their new term with the justices hearing three consolidated cases with far-reaching implications for wage-earners. The cases—Epic Systems Corp. v. LewisErnst & Young LLP v. Morris, and National Labor Relations Board v. Murphy Oil USA, Inc.—are all about whether employers have the right to compel workers go through onerous individual arbitration proceedings in order to bring labor law claims.

If the justices answer that question in the affirmative, then the affected workers will—as a practical matter—find it nearly impossible to win back pay in cases involving wage law violations. In the typical case involving wage law violations plaintiffs bring what’s called a collective action (similar, but not identical to, a class action) to recover back pay from a common employer.

Each worker’s claim might be worth only a few hundred or few thousand dollars, but when the defendant is a large firm with lots of similarly situated employees, the collective action might be worth millions. It’s much easier to find competent counsel to litigate a potentially more lucrative collective action.

To pre-empt this possibility, more firms are inserting individual arbitration clauses into employee contracts. In a series of opinions in recent years—including three authored between 2011 and 2013 by the late conservative Justice Antonin Scalia—the court has repeatedly ruled that consumers were barred from bringing class actions by arbitration clauses they had signed as a condition of receiving a product or service.

In the first three years after the court’s pro-arbitration ruling in AT&T Mobility v. Concepcion in 2011, the number of companies using arbitration clauses to preclude employee class actions jumped from 16.1% to 42.7%. Almost 25 million private-sector, nonunion employees are now subject to class waivers contained in arbitration clauses.

Though the three specific cases before the court all involve overtime claims under the Fair Labor Standards Act, the precedent that will be created appears likely also to impact class claims brought under the Equal Pay Act, the Family Medical Leave Act, the Age Discrimination in Employment Act, and Title VII of the Civil Rights Act.

Every time the price of a barrel of crude rises above $50, US shale drillers ramp up production to take advantage of the surge. Then, as supply increases, prices fall. We may be seeing the start of that trend again after oil rose from $46 to more than $52 only to ease back closer to $51 today. Government data released yesterday showed American drillers lifted output almost 9 percent during the past three weeks, the biggest three-week increase in half a decade.

Drug maker AbbVie climbed after it resolved a patent dispute over Amgen’s version of AbbVie’s drug Humira, which is the source of most of its revenue. Amgen agreed not to begin selling its version of the anti-inflammatory medicine in Europe until October 2018, and the U.S. version won’t go on the market until Jan. 31, 2023. The settlement would mean billions of dollars in additional sales for AbbVie, which reported $16 billion in Humira sales in 2016.

Abbott Laboratories jumped after the Food and Drug Administration approved its FreeStyle Libre Flash glucose monitoring system for adults with Type 1 diabetes. The product uses a sensor inserted below the skin to measure blood glucose. Analysts say Abbott could have a competitive edge because the FDA did not advise patients to take samples of their blood to confirm the system’s readings.

Drugstore chain Rite Aid dropped after its quarterly revenue fell short of Wall Street’s forecasts. The stock lost 26 cents, or 11.2 percent, to $2.03. Earlier this month the company agreed to sell almost half of its stores to rival Walgreens for $4.38 billion, but the slimmed-down deal was smaller than investors had hoped.

Ikea has purchased TaskRabbit, which is a gig-economy app that lets users pay a handyman to assemble their Ikea furniture. That’s the kind of can-do spirit that we need around here.