Morning in Arizona

Morning in Arizona
Rainbows over Canyonlands - Dave Stoker

The Headline Animator

Showing posts with label repeal. Show all posts
Showing posts with label repeal. Show all posts

Thursday, October 12, 2017

Face Mask Shortage

Financial Review

Face Mask Shortage


DOW – 31 = 22,841
SPX – 4 = 2550
NAS – 12 = 6591
RUT – 1 = 1505
10 Y – .02 = 2.32%
OIL – .64 = 50.66
GOLD + 2.00 = 1294.10

Cryptocurrency

  • Number of Currencies: 877
  • Total Market Cap: $164,996,772,967
  • 24H Volume: $5,136,518,497

Top Cryptocurrencies

  Name Symbol Price USD Market Cap Vol. Total Vol. % Price BTC Chg. % 1D Chg. % 7D
  Bitcoin BTC 5,422.1 $90.30B $2.77B 53.86% 1 +12.38% +25.32%
  Ethereum ETH 302.78 $28.93B $525.92M 10.24% 0.0562321 -0.20% +2.84%
  Ripple XRP 0.24670 $9.65B $243.79M 4.75% 0.00004618 -6.02% +5.83%
  Bitcoin Cash BCH 310.66 $5.25B $261.82M 5.10% 0.0581277 -0.71% -12.08%
  Litecoin LTC 58.950 $3.17B $334.89M 6.52% 0.0109966 +16.11% +15.25%
  Dash DASH 293.87 $2.23B $42.68M 0.83% 0.0540024 -1.40% -4.04%
  NEM XEM 0.20478 $1.85B $4.40M 0.09% 0.00003806 -4.80% -2.78%
  NEO NEO 28.353 $1.38B $59.75M 1.16% 0.0050969 -5.80% -15.13%
  BitConnect BCC 187.652 $1.34B $15.57M 0.30% 0.0346751 +12.59% +34.78%
  Monero XMR 87.00 $1.32B $32.67M 0.64% 0.0160682 -0.55% -4.89%

For the past 7 years, Republicans have been trying to repeal Obamacare. This year they tried repeal and replace, skinny repeal, and basic repeal – all failed. Now Trump has signed an executive order directing federal agencies to look for ways to expand the use of association health plans, groups of small businesses that pool together to buy health insurance, and to broaden the definition of short-term insurance, which is exempt from the Affordable Care Act’s rules.

The ultimate impact will depend on any new regulations written because of the order, but overall, the Trump administration could make cheaper plans with skimpier benefits more available. The clear intent of the executive order is to create a parallel insurance market exempt from many of the consumer protections in the Affordable Care Act.

An association health plan is a way for a group of small businesses to pool together to buy insurance, giving them more purchasing power and access to cheaper premiums. The most famous examples have been farm bureaus, which allowed independent farming businesses to band together and get insurance. National associations could skirt state mandates, and pick plans with cheaper premiums.

The problem with those plans is that they provide almost no coverage. Think of them as don’t get sick plans. Small businesses left in Obamacare’s marketplace would face higher costs and fewer options as the market became less attractive to insurers. The individuals likely to flee the Obamacare markets for association plans would probably be younger and healthier, leaving behind an older, sicker pool for the remaining ACA market.

That has the makings of a death spiral, with ever-increasing premiums and insurers deciding to leave the market altogether. This has the potential to siphon off healthy people with skinnier benefits and cheaper premiums, leaving behind a sicker pool of people under ACA plans.

We have an actual example in Tennessee, where a Farm Bureau association has been operating through a state loophole; some 23,000 people are in the association – they don’t have to be farmers. Those 23,000-people buying the skimpier health plan are presumably younger and healthier.

Segmenting those people out of the Obamacare marketplace raises premiums for everyone else left behind. The Society of Actuaries estimated in 2016 that Tennessee’s marketplace has the sickest enrollees in the entire country. The state also has some of the highest Obamacare premiums in the entire country, too. The basic rule of insurance is the law of large numbers – the bigger the insured pool, the more evenly risk and cost is spread.

Trump’s executive order also looks to expand what’s called short-term limited duration insurance. These short-term policies typically have higher out-of-pocket costs and cover fewer services than traditional insurance. They were designed for people who, for example, expect to be out of work, and therefore without insurance, for a limited period.

That kind of coverage is totally free from the health care law’s insurance regulations: the mandate to cover essential health benefits, the prohibition on charging sick people more than healthy people or denying people coverage based on their medical history, and so on.

Trump has technically asked federal agencies to consider issuing new regulations that achieve the executive order’s goals. That’s all. Federal rule-making takes some time, months upon months. Don’t expect any changes before the end of the year. We don’t know if the changes would be compliant with the individual mandate. Expect challenges to the order. So, for now at least, the effect of the order is to sow confusion and uncertainty in the health insurance market for insurance companies and customers.

Today Trump lashed out at hurricane-devastated Puerto Rico, insisting in tweets that the federal government can’t keep sending help “forever”. In a series of tweets, Trump added, “electric and all infrastructure was disaster before hurricanes.” He blamed Puerto Rico for its looming financial crisis and “a total lack of accountability.”

At the same time, the House passed, on a sweeping 353-69 vote, a $36.5 billion disaster aid package that includes assistance for Puerto Rico’s financially-strapped government. House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., said the government needs to ensure that Puerto Rico can “begin to stand on its own two feet” and said the U.S. has “got to do more to help Puerto Rico rebuild its own economy.”

About 85 percent of Puerto Rico residents still lack electricity and the government says it hopes to have electricity restored completely by March. More than one-third of the population does not have access to potable water. At least 4 deaths are reported linked to infections from dirty water. Though officials say 45 people have died in Puerto Rico in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria, anecdotal reports suggest that number is much higher.

A recent Vox investigation tallied over 500 deaths that could be linked to the hurricane, in addition to another 69 people who are still missing following the storm. We don’t know an exact number – but it will be more than 45 and it will grow in coming weeks.

There is a face mask shortage in San Francisco. This morning, the air quality in the Bay Area was worse than in Beijing, which is notorious for having some of the unhealthiest air in the world. In what is being called one of the worst firestorms in California history, smoke heavy with soot continues to blow across the state.

In San Francisco, more than an hour’s drive south from the epicenter of the blazes in Santa Rosa, many people are wearing face masks to shield themselves from the pollution that hangs like a curtain in the hazy air. Local hardware stores have sold out of face masks. The forecast for the next few days in the region is that the air quality is going to get worse.

The death toll from California’s wildfires continues to increase, with a total of 29, matching California’s deadliest blaze, the 1933 Griffith Park blaze in Los Angeles. The number is expected to climb. Officials say there are around 8,000 firefighters currently fighting the flames with more help pouring in from neighboring states every day.

Dangerous winds have been whipping up off and on, not only in Napa but in Sonoma County, too. Despite the threat, officials are sending targeted search teams into burned areas to find hundreds of people still unaccounted for. Some 3,500 homes and businesses have been destroyed by the blazes.

As the wildfires raged for a fourth day, they have continued to grow and cross county lines, as 45 miles per hour winds whipped the flames and negated almost all efforts to contain the fires. A total count of 22 fires on Wednesday changed to 21 today because two large fires had merged together.

JPMorgan Chase easily beat Wall Street’s third-quarter profit expectations, with loan growth and higher interest rates more than offsetting weakness in its markets-related unit. Overall, JPMorgan’s profit rose 7.1 percent in the third quarter compared with the year-ago period, to $6.73 billion, or $1.76 per share. Analysts had expected earnings of $1.65 per share.

Citigroup reported third-quarter earnings of $1.42 per share, a nearly 8% beat. Wall Street estimated earnings of $1.32 per share. Revenues grew 2% year-over-year to $18.2 billion, beating estimates of $17.8 billion. The bottom line benefited from the $355 million gain on the sale of its fixed-income analytics business, which added $0.13 in earnings per share. EPS was down 2%, excluding this item. Fixed-income trading took a 16% hit year-over-year.

Both JPMorgan and Citigroup say that they boosted their reserves for consumer-loan losses by the most in more than four years. Both lenders set aside money last quarter because they expected write-offs for credit-card lending to climb in periods ahead, with Citigroup saying the increase is coming faster than it had anticipated.

AT&T, the No. 2 U.S. wireless carrier, which owns satellite television service DirecTV, said that it lost 90,000 U.S. video subscribers in the quarter due to intense competition in traditional pay TV markets and the impact of the recent hurricanes.

AT&T said it added roughly 300,000 subscribers to DirecTV Now, its cheaper option for customers who want to stream television over the internet. That means the company lost 390,000 subscribers to its satellite and U-verse services, which are considered higher-value customers.

Rising energy costs led prices at the wholesale level to climb 0.4% in September. The producer price index, which measures inflation pressures before they reach the consumer, has risen 2.6% over the past 12 months. September’s burst of inflation is likely the result of oil refineries shuttering along the Gulf of Mexico due to Hurricane Harvey toward the end of August. As a result, gasoline prices surged 10.9% in September.

Initial jobless claims fell by 15,000 to 243,000 in the first week of October to mark the lowest level in six weeks.

Equifax has taken one of its customer help website pages offline as its security team considers reports of another potential cyber breach at the credit reporting company, which recently disclosed a hack that compromised the sensitive information of more than 145 million people.

The move came after an independent security analyst found part of Equifax’s website was under the control of attackers trying to trick visitors into installing fraudulent Adobe Flash updates that could infect computers with malware. So, people who were afraid their data had been stolen, went to the site and infected their computers with malware.

Wednesday, July 19, 2017

Quads

Financial Review

Quads


DOW + 66 = 21,640
SPX + 13 = 2473
NAS + 40 = 6385
RUT + 14 = 1441
10 Y + .01 = 2.27%
OIL + .69 = 47.09
GOLD – 1.00 = 1242.00
BITCOIN + 1.75% = 2334.63 USD
ETHEREUM – 2.36% = 209.06

The Dow Industrials, S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 all closed at record highs today. This is the first time all 4 indexes closed at a record high on the same day since March 1st.

ETFs have seen net new inflows of $250 billion thus far this year, and more than half of that inflow has gone to just 20 ETFs, or about 1% of the ETF universe. The most popular ETF this year, in terms of flows, has been the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), which has taken in $18.5 billion.

Two other iShares equity products—the iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF (IEFA) a market-cap-weighted index of developed-market stocks in Europe, Australasia and the Far East, and excludes the US and Canada, and the iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG), —rounded out the top three.

According to a Bank of America Merrill Lynch survey of 207 investors with a total of $586 billion under management, money managers are a net 20 percent underweight U.S. stocks. That’s despite the major averages setting new records on an almost weekly basis.

There are a few takeaways here, all supportive of equities. One is that the survey suggests there is lots of money that could be put to work in stocks. Another is that there aren’t a lot of natural sellers left, since anybody who wanted to sell has already done so. And finally, the most successful investors say that the time to buy is when everyone else is selling.

Investors will focus on quarterly earnings to see if high valuations are justified in the face of mixed economic data, tepid inflation and policy gridlock in Washington.

Analysts estimate an 8.7 percent rise in second-quarter earnings and a 4.6 percent increase in revenue for the S&P 500 companies from a year earlier. The S&P tech sector has been the best performing sector this year despite concerns about stretched valuations as investors look for growth sectors immune to policy uncertainties.

The exception is IBM, down 4.2 percent today to a one-year low after the company’s quarterly revenue came in below expectations – that’s 21 consecutive quarters of declining revenue for Big Blue. The stock was the biggest drag on the Dow and the S&P 500.

Wall Street has a new bond trading king. Morgan Stanley rose 2.1 percent after the Wall Street bank reported better-than-expected profit and bond trading revenue declines that were modest compared with arch-rival Goldman Sachs. Goldman was down 0.5 percent.

While revenue from fixed income fell during a quiet second quarter, Morgan Stanley still reported fixed income sales and trading revenue of $1.2 billion – and while that is down 4 percent from last year, it was better than the stunning 40 percent drop reported Tuesday by rival Goldman Sachs over the same period.

Morgan Stanley has bested Goldman in fixed income revenue for two quarters now, with $2.9 billion of fixed income trading revenue in the first half of the year versus Goldman’s $2.8 billion.

CSX fell 6.5 percent after the third-largest U.S. railroad operator’s forecast missed expectations. Other railroad companies such as Union Pacific fell 2 percent, while Kansas City Southern edged down 0.7 percent.

American Express’ profit fell less than expected in the second quarter, as higher spending by card members made up for increased costs from offering rewards. AmEx said card member spending was up 8 percent in the second quarter ended June 30. Revenue was flat and net income came in better than estimates. American Express dropped 1% in trading today.

T-Mobile beat revenue and profit estimates, and added more customers than expected in the most recent quarter. Shares gained 5%.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals jumped as much as 26 percent to an all-time high after the company reported positive results for its cystic fibrosis treatment. The stock was the biggest boost on the S&P and the Nasdaq.

Spices maker McCormick & Co has won the battle to buy Reckitt Benckiser’s North American food business, paying a higher than expected $4.2 billion. Reckitt said in April it was reviewing options for the unit, which includes French’s mustard and Frank’s RedHot sauce, to cut debt following its $16.6 billion purchase of baby formula maker Mead Johnson.

The Senate Republican plan to repeal and replace Obamacare could not muster enough support for a vote Monday. Yesterday, President Trump said he wanted to just repeal the Affordable Care Act, and come up with a replacement down the road. Today, the Congressional Budget Office released an estimate saying that just a repeal would result in 17 million more uninsured within a year, and 32 million more uninsured within 9 years.

Today, it is back to repeal and replace, and Trump wants the senators to stay in Washington until they get it done. Polling shows just 12% of Americans support the Senate healthcare bill.  Meanwhile, their counterparts in the House looked to reset matters with a fresh budget proposal.

The House Republicans’ spending plan aims to balance the federal budget within a decade, reducing the deficit by $6.5 trillion, partially by cutting billions of dollars from entitlement programs such as Medicare and Social Security. Like the proposal the White House released in May, the House proposal is a blueprint, not a bill set in stone. It also assumes the Senate health package will become law, an increasingly unlikely outcome.

But even if this budget is not passed as written, it puts House Republicans’ financial priorities on full display. The House budget proposes increasing the base national defense budget by $70 billion, from $551 billion in fiscal year 2017 to $621 billion in fiscal year 2018. That’s more than the $574 billion in base defense spending recently proposed by the White House.

Also included in the proposal is $75 billion to fight terrorism, as well as “significant funding” on resources for border security, which includes construction on a controversial border wall between the U.S. and Mexico.

The House budget proposes reducing spending on entitlement programs such as Medicare by $203 billion next year, instructing 11 House committees to find ways to reduce spending. These cuts would in part come from programs like Medicare, which could face $487 billion in cuts over the next decade, and Social Security, which faces $4 billion in cuts in that same time frame.

The proposal assumes that the Senate GOP health bill will become law, resulting in what the Congressional Budget Office estimates would be $834 billion in Medicaid cuts over the next decade.

The House proposal also recommends reducing funding for food stamp programs, noting that spending on such initiatives doubled between 2001 and the start of the financial crisis. Spending on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, increased from about $18 billion in 2001 to about $33 billion in 2009, according to the USDA.

The House proposal mandates that the chamber’s Ways and Means Committee pass a tax reform bill that does not increase the deficit, reduces overall tax rates and simplifies the tax code. The budget also stipulates that such a bill should repeal the alternative minimum tax and reduces the corporate tax rate. The budget instructs the committee to pass this reform through a process called reconciliation, which was primarily designed to pass budgetary laws.

This means that if a tax reform plan is passed by the House, it would only need majority support in the Senate, and won’t be subject to a filibuster. That gives the Senate’s Republican leadership additional wiggle room to pass the measure; with 52 Senators, the GOP can afford two defections.

However, the same strategy did not help avoid the internal party discord that derailed their efforts to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act.

Supreme Court rejected parts of Trump’s travel ban. The three-sentence order by the justices,  widened the definition of which citizens from six mostly Muslim countries covered by the travel ban are still eligible to travel in the US. And that will include grandparents, cousins and other relatives of a person in the US.

The court plans to hear arguments on the travel ban on Oct. 10; the latest scuffle centered on the rules that will apply in the interim.

Crude closed above $47 a barrel for only the second time since early June as US inventories fell by 4.73 million barrels last week as measured by data from the Energy Information Administration. Gasoline supplies shrank 4.44 million barrels, the most since March.