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Rainbows over Canyonlands - Dave Stoker

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Showing posts with label Supreme Court. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Supreme Court. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 29, 2017

Wild Ride

Financial Review

Wild Ride


DOW + 103 = 23,940 (Record)
SPX – 0.97 = 2626
NAS – 88 = 6824
RUT + 29 = 1542
10 Y + .04 = 2.38%
OIL – .72 = 57.39
GOLD – 10.00 = 1284.40

Cryptocurrency

Top Cryptocurrencies

  Name Symbol Price USD Market Cap 24H Volume Total Vol. % Price BTC Chg. % 1D Chg. % 7D

Bitcoin BTC 10,440.0 $176.94B $12.43B 48.17% 1 +6.76% +28.76%

Ethereum ETH 447.67 $44.05B $2.91B 11.27% 0.0445032 +6.04% +21.31%

Bitcoin Cash BCH 1,389.00 $24.35B $2.55B 9.88% 0.140411 +3.95% +4.72%

Ripple XRP 0.24450 $10.06B $559.05M 2.17% 0.00002528 +4.44% +9.00%

Dash DASH 701.27 $5.64B $460.44M 1.78% 0.0708762 +6.09% +27.36%

Bitcoin Gold BTG 298.72 $5.34B $277.71M 1.08% 0.0310805 +6.27% +28.06%

Litecoin LTC 91.090 $4.96B $827.06M 3.20% 0.00890424 +5.06% +27.98%

IOTA MIOTA 1.37200 $3.83B $309.61M 1.20% 0.00013365 +8.28% +54.35%

Monero XMR 184.21 $2.91B $191.79M 0.74% 0.0183086 +11.31% +15.15%

Cardano ADA 0.114583 $2.87B $207.27M 0.80% 0.00001074 +3.15% +291.80%

The Dow Industrials hit another record high, even as the Nasdaq suffered a sharp drop.

The U.S. economy’s growth rate last quarter was revised upward to the fastest in three years on stronger investment from businesses and government agencies than previously estimated. Third quarter GDP grew at a 3.3% annualized rate (est. 3.2%), revised from 3%.

The performance, achieved despite two devastating hurricanes, marked the fastest expansion in gross domestic product since a 5.2 percent annual spurt in the third quarter of 2014. Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, continues to be the main driver of growth, though revisions showed it was slightly weaker than previously estimated on purchases of both durable and nondurable goods.

The biggest improvement came in business investment, which made a 1.2 percentage-point contribution to growth. In addition to greater spending on transportation equipment, the data also reflected more software spending. Nonresidential structures were revised to a bigger decline. While the first look at third-quarter gross domestic income showed a pickup, the prior quarter was revised downward by 0.6 percentage point, reflecting a smaller gain in wages and salaries.

Price data in the GDP report showed inflation remains behind the Fed’s 2 percent goal. Excluding food and energy, the central bank’s preferred price index tied to personal spending rose at a 1.4 percent annualized rate last quarter. Gross domestic income, adjusted for inflation, rose 2.5 percent after a downwardly revised 2.3 percent gain in the prior three months; second-quarter wages and salaries were revised downward by $26.5 billion.

The GDP report is the second of three estimates for the quarter; the third is due in December.

The pending home sales index, which measures signed contracts to buy existing homes, rose 3.5 percent for the month, but is still 0.6 percent lower than October 2016. That is the highest level since June. Sales were strongest in the South, jumping 7.4 percent for the month and 2 percent compared with a year ago. That was likely due to pent-up demand after two major hurricanes.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen delivered her final testimony before the Joint Economic Committee on Capitol Hill. Yellen said the country’s economic expansion had broadened and strengthened, and that she expected the growth to continue. Yellen was careful to say that the economy could be doing better. She noted that the pace of economic growth remained slow by historical standards.

The two major determinants of growth, the number of workers and the productivity of the average worker, are rising slowly. She said, “Congress might consider policies that encourage business investment and capital formation, improve the nation’s infrastructure, raise the quality of our educational system, and support innovation and the adoption of new technologies.”

She did not offer an opinion on tax policy but warned that debt-to-GDP ratios – around 75% – were high, though not excessive.  She added, “It’s the type of thing that should keep people awake at night.” In response to a question, Yellen added, “The equity of the tax code is important and should be taken into account.”

She also said changes in fiscal policy could affect how quickly the Fed raises rates. Fed officials have drawn a careful distinction between tax cuts that increase economic capacity — for example, by encouraging business investment — and tax cuts that provide a short-term sugar high, such as cuts in personal income taxes that would likely increase spending.

The Fed estimates that the economy is already growing at something close to the maximum sustainable pace. A short-term stimulus, therefore, would likely raise inflation. In turn, the Fed could seek to offset faster inflation by raising interest rates more quickly.

Also, today, at the ASU Economic Forecast Luncheon in Phoenix, San Francisco Fed President John Williams delivered an upbeat assessment of the economy, and falling unemployment is expected to put pressure on inflation… eventually, Williams anticipates the Fed will keep raising interest rates gradually.

Williams said, “The next time you see a headline about stubbornly low inflation, you can smile to yourself, knowing that the mystery isn’t all that mysterious after all. With the economy doing so well this year and based on the historical pattern, I expect to see a rise in inflation in 2018.” In a Q&A session, Williams said the Fed does not have plans to issue digital currency, but the central bank is interested in the underlying technology and is actively researching it.

Yesterday, Bitcoin hit $10,000. This morning it hit $11,000 – but by the end of the day it was back around $9,290. Wild ride doesn’t begin to describe it. Trading volume was a whopping $9.75 billion over the last 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap, compared to $2.26 billion for digital currency Ethereum. The heaviest selling came amid reports of service outages and delays on some of the largest online exchanges. If it looks like a bubble, and walks like a bubble, and charts like a bubble….

If bitcoin is a bit too crazy for you, starting in 2018, investors can dump their money into deeply unBogle-like, totally non-passive Vanguard exchange-traded vehicles with flavors like volatility, momentum, value, and, for some reason, low liquidity. That’s right, actively managed ETFs.

Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other key producers, including Russia, meet on Nov. 30 to discuss whether to continue to limit production to drain global inventories to help push up prices. They cut production by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in January and agreed to hold down output until March. The market had expected OPEC to extend the limits by another six to nine months, but this is now less certain.

The Supreme Court heard arguments today on whether police need a warrant for cellphone location data in a case that could reshape digital privacy protections. The defendant in the case was convicted of participating in a series of robberies, based in part on records provided by his cellular carrier showing his movements over several months. The defense lawyer said prosecutors had violated the Fourth Amendment, which bars unreasonable searches, by failing to get a warrant for the information.

The court’s decision in the case, Carpenter v. United States, will apply the Fourth Amendment, drafted in the 18th century, to a world in which people’s movements are continually recorded by devices in their pockets and cars, by toll plazas and by transit systems. A ruling in Mr. Carpenter’s favor could revise a fundamental Fourth Amendment principle: that people have no reasonable expectation of privacy when they voluntarily turn over information to a third party, like a phone company.

Recent Supreme Court decisions have expressed uneasiness with allowing the government to have unfettered access to vast amounts of digital data. By the end of arguments, at least five justices seemed prepared to limit the government’s power to obtain records from cellphone companies showing their customers’ locations over long periods of time. But there was no consensus about a rationale for a decision or about how far the court was prepared to go to reshape longstanding constitutional doctrines that allow the government to obtain business records held by third parties.

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency has advised Wells Fargo’s board of directors that it is weighing a formal enforcement action against the bank over improprieties in its auto-insurance and mortgage operations. In a letter this month, the OCC said Wells had willingly hurt customers in the two businesses and had until Nov. 24 to respond. The OCC letter said Wells repeatedly failed to fix problems in a broad span of areas, not just auto insurance and mortgage-lending.

Nokia is reportedly in talks to buy Juniper Networks.  The offer would value Juniper at around $16 billion.

A scheduling glitch that allowed American Airlines pilots to take vacation at the same time has left thousands of flights during the busy holiday travel period next month without pilots assigned to them. Pilots loaded up their schedules with flights in early December, but many opted to take days off around the holidays, after the system allowed it.

American Airlines is now offering pilots 150 percent of hourly pay to work those dates. It was unclear how much the scheduling problem will cost American Airlines. Whoops.

Monday, October 16, 2017

Boring Record Highs

Financial Review

Boring Record Highs


DOW + 85 = 22,956
SPX + 4 = 2557 (Record)
NAS + 18 = 6624 (Record)
RUT + 0.02 = 1502
10 Y + .03 = 2.31%
OIL + .42 = 51.87
GOLD – 8.80 = 1295.50

Cryptocurrency

  • Number of Currencies: 879
  • Total Market Cap: $172,368,733,175
  • 24H Volume: $5,079,040,463

Top Cryptocurrencies



Name Symbol Price USD Market Cap Vol. Total Vol. % Price BTC Chg. % 1D Chg. % 7D
Bitcoin BTC 5,630.4 $93.83B $2.02B 39.87% 1 -2.33% +17.30%
Ethereum ETH 328.70 $31.21B $653.51M 12.87% 0.0580434 -1.70% +10.33%
Ripple XRP 0.25810 $9.99B $992.48M 19.54% 0.00004592 +0.47% +4.45%
Bitcoin Cash BCH 310.19 $5.19B $111.39M 2.19% 0.0549922 -1.29% -5.04%
Litecoin LTC 62.630 $3.34B $196.10M 3.86% 0.0110818 -3.23% +24.30%
Dash DASH 302.36 $2.31B $38.49M 0.76% 0.0536745 +0.12% +5.98%
NEM XEM 0.22402 $2.04B $14.73M 0.29% 0.00004015 +0.88% +11.51%
Monero XMR 94.51 $1.44B $32.29M 0.64% 0.0167811 -1.26% +9.31%
NEO NEO 28.205 $1.41B $31.54M 0.62% 0.00498581 -0.87% -3.03%
BitConnect BCC 195.007 $1.40B $14.05M 0.28% 0.0345448 +1.17% +21.68%

This year, the S&P 500 index has hit records on almost four dozen different occasions, with the single biggest drop from the latest record amounting to less than 3 percent. More than $3.2 trillion of market value has been added to U.S. equities, and volatility is at an all-time low. With the S&P already up, 14 percent so far this year, investors are looking to justify the relatively high valuation of stocks through the earnings.

The S&P 500 hasn’t experienced a decline of at least 3% since Nov. 7, 2016. That 237-day span registers as the second-longest period without a single-session drop of that magnitude since the 241 days from Jan. 26, 1995 to Jan. 9, 1996 – so, if we make it to next Wednesday without breaking down – this will officially become the most boring stock market of all time. The VIX index is reflecting that complacency, hovering around levels last seen in 1993. Just a reminder – the absence of risk doesn’t mean the elimination of risk.

Asian shares rallied to a decade high after figures showed China’s producer prices beat market expectations to rise 6.9 percent in September from a year earlier, suggesting the Chinese economy is growing much faster than expected. Upbeat data from China came before the Communist Party Congress on Wednesday and third-quarter economic data on Thursday. Japan’s Nikkei climbed to a level not seen since 1996.

Wide-ranging comments from Trump on tax cuts and health-care reforms following a luncheon meeting with Senator Majority Leader Mitch McConnell did not move the market. However, both issues are critical for the market as lower taxes are as crucial to supporting a continued rally in stocks. The House is on recess this week, and when it returns, it will have just 28 days left on its calendar to tackle issues including taxes and funding the government.

Trump also told reporters he is looking at reforming the welfare system. The White House began circulating a draft order in late September, calling on agencies to review regulations and propose new rules that conform to a broad set of principles, streamline or eliminate duplicative services, set metrics to measure accountability and create greater cooperation with state and local governments.

Trump’s proposed fiscal 2018 budget called for a massive reduction in funding for social safety nets, such as food stamps, Social Security disability insurance benefits, and the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program. The problem is that there’s very little welfare left to reform. The Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program has a budget of $16 billion, which is unchanged since 1996; even though inflation has reduced its actual value by a third since then.

In 1979, more than 80 percent of families living below the federal poverty line received welfare benefits under the old Aid to Families with Dependent Children program. By 2015, that figure had fallen to just 23 percent. That doesn’t mean poverty has been reduced significantly, just that the states have made it much tougher to get welfare assistance.

Iraqi government forces captured the major Kurdish-held oil city of Kirkuk. The military action was in response to a Kurdish election 3 weeks ago, that called for Kurdish independence. Baghdad refuses to recognize Kurdish control of the area. Iraq is the second-largest producer within the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, pumping most of its 4.47 million barrels a day from fields in the south and shipping it from the Persian Gulf port of Basra.

Kirkuk’s oil fields and deposits inside the adjacent Kurdish region were exporting about 600,000 barrels a day through a Kurdish-controlled pipeline to Turkey. Best estimate is that Iraq taking control in Kirkuk could cut shipments by 450,000 barrels daily until the federal government repairs its own disused pipeline to Turkey or reaches a revenue-sharing deal with the Kurds. Crude oil climbed to a 2-week high intra-day.

The Spanish government has given Catalan leaders until Thursday to drop their push for independence, signaling to could act to strip the Catalonia region of its autonomy if they do not comply. The move came after Catalan President Carles Puigdemont ignored an ultimatum from Madrid to provide a clear answer on whether the region has declared independence.

That lack of response, seen as an act of defiance, has opened the door for the central government to take over control of the region. Meanwhile, Monday night in Spain, 2 Catalan leaders were arrested for investigation of acts of sedition.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said that the central bank expects to continue to raise interest rates gradually as solid growth, a strong labor market and a healthy global economy lift prices even as she recognized that inflation has been surprisingly low. Yellen said: “The biggest surprise in the U.S. economy this year has been inflation,” or more specifically the lack of inflation, which according to the Fed’s preferred gauge is running at 1.3%, for the core rate.

Still, it looks more and more that the Fed will raise rates at their December policy meeting. The Fed voted last month to begin unwinding their balance sheet, and Yellen reiterated on Sunday that they do not intend to use that process as an active monetary policy tool.

Here’s a thought – maybe the Fed could keep buying debt for just one more month – they could buy all of Puerto Rico’s debt, probably pick it up for about 30 cents on the dollar, and then just let it fade away on their balance sheet. Just a thought.

After the closing bell, Netflix report earnings of 37 cents per share, topping estimates of 32 cents. Revenue of $2.98 billion just barely beat estimates. But for Netflix, the key number is new subscribers. The company now has about 109.3 million subscribers globally.

Netflix said it added 850,000 subscribers in the U.S., ahead of the 810,000 estimates for the quarter. It boomed internationally, signing up 4.45 million subscribers versus the 3.69 million estimates. The subscription additions were up 49 percent year over year.

It’s official: Nordstrom’s quest to go private is over — at least for now. This morning, the family members who own the department store chain suspended their attempt to sell the company to a private equity firm through the end of the year. The family struggled to raise enough debt to finance the deal. The news sent Nordstrom’s shares down more than 6%, and then the declines rippled throughout the rest of the retailers.

Food services company Aramark said it would buy Avendra LLC, majority owned by Marriott International, and uniform and linen supplier AmeriPride Services for a total of $2.35 billion.

Reuters reports T-Mobile and Sprint plan to announce a merger agreement without any immediate asset sales, as they seek to preserve as much of their spectrum holdings and cost synergies as they can before regulators ask for concessions. The companies are expected to make a merger announcement within the next month.

The Supreme Court agreed to resolve a privacy dispute between the Justice Department and Microsoft over whether prosecutors should get access to emails stored on company servers overseas. The justices will hear the Trump administration’s appeal of a lower court’s ruling last year preventing federal prosecutors from obtaining emails stored in Microsoft computer servers in Dublin, Ireland in a drug trafficking investigation.

The Microsoft dispute is the second that the justices have agreed to hear in their current term that touches upon digital privacy rights. The other case concerns whether police officers need a warrant to access information on the past locations of cell phone users that is held by wireless carriers. Rulings in both cases are due by the end of June.

The Supreme Court also agreed to decide whether American Express is violating federal antitrust law by forbidding merchants that accept its credit cards from encouraging customers to use rival cards that charge lower fees. The justices will hear an appeal by 11 states led by Ohio that had sued American Express of a 2016 lower court ruling that endorsed the legality of the company’s “anti-steering” provisions in contracts with merchants.

Merchants annually pay more than $50 billion in so-called swipe fees to process credit card transactions, and these fees can be passed along to customers through higher prices. American Express charges merchants higher fees relative to the other credit card networks.

Thursday, September 28, 2017

A Stickler for Math

Financial Review

A Stickler for Math


DOW + 40 = 22,381
SPX + 3 = 2510 (record)
NAS + 0.19 = 6453
RUT + 3 = 1488 (record)
10 Y un = 2.31%
OIL – .56 = 51.58
GOLD + 4.30 = 1287.70

Cryptocurrency

  • Number of Currencies: 872
  • Total Market Cap: $137,946,002,185
  • 24H Volume: $4,334,119,332

Top Cryptocurrencies

  Name Symbol Price USD Market Cap Vol. Total Vol. % Price BTC Chg. % 1D Chg. % 7D
  Bitcoin BTC 4,092.0 $67.23B $1.69B 38.97% 1 -2.27% 9.86%
  Ethereum ETH 286.29 $26.77B $548.51M 12.66% 0.0693121 -5.36% 6.77%
  Ripple XRP 0.19261 $7.23B $117.41M 2.71% 0.00004632 -4.42% 8.64%
  Bitcoin Cash BCH 444.00 $7.16B $302.02M 6.97% 0.105858 -3.06% 1.37%
  Litecoin LTC 51.840 $2.71B $217.43M 5.02% 0.0125488 -5.50% 7.38%
  Dash DASH 330.82 $2.45B $48.11M 1.11% 0.0792086 -3.59% -6.56%
  NEM XEM 0.22060 $2.00B $4.78M 0.11% 0.00005451 -7.43% 3.17%
  IOTA MIOTA 0.56939 $1.54B $25.69M 0.59% 0.00013607 -4.33% 10.18%
  Monero XMR 93.30 $1.40B $42.46M 0.98% 0.0227271 -4.97% 5.19%
  NEO NEO 27.000 $1.33B $99.73M 2.30% 0.00653991 -10.00% 50.08%

The S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 hit record high closes. The S&P is up 1.5 percent this month, on track for its sixth consecutive monthly gain. September is normally the worst month for stocks.

The Commerce Department released its third and final estimate of second quarter Gross Domestic Product. Second quarter GDP was revised to 3.1%, up from the earlier estimate of 3%. Growth last quarter was the quickest since the first quarter of 2015 and followed a 1.2 percent pace in the January-March period.

With GDP accelerating in the second quarter, the economy grew 2.1 percent in the first half of 2017. Hurricane damage is expected to put a dent in third quarter GDP, but give a little boost to fourth quarter numbers. Estimates for the growth rate in the July-September period are just above 2.2 percent.

Details of the Republican tax plan have yet to be filled in, so we can’t say yet who would pay what. The 9-page proposal released yesterday specifies three income tax brackets — 12%, 25%, and 35% — but it doesn’t say what income levels they would apply to.

It says the $4,050 exemption that taxpayers currently get for each dependent child would be abolished, to be replaced with an unspecified increase in the per-child credit. It says tax-writing committees would provide families “additional tax relief” that they are not prepared to describe yet.

And because Senate rules will require the plan to fit within a budget resolution that will most likely allow only $1.5 trillion in revenue losses over a decade, lawmakers will have to trim its proposed tax cuts — or add new tax increases — to meet that specification before it can become law.

While there is a lot we don’t know, we can identify a group of taxpayers likely to face tax increases from this proposal: people with moderate to upper-moderate incomes who take itemized deductions, like those for mortgage interest and state and local taxes paid.

Some of these deductions would be eliminated. And while Republicans like to misleadingly claim that their plan would “double the standard deduction,” these itemizing taxpayers would lose the ability to take the personal exemption for themselves or their spouses, subjecting an additional $8,100 of their income to tax.

While these taxpayers would lose key tax benefits, rich taxpayers would come out ahead. The rich would benefit from a new preferential rate for business income — while high-income workers could pay tax at rates as high as 35%, business owners would have tax on their profits capped at 25%.

Today, Chief economic adviser Gary Cohn told reporters that a typical four-person American family bringing in $100,000 a year would save $1,000 under the Republicans’ proposed tax reform effort, which they could use to pay for a new car or a kitchen. Or not.

Cohn didn’t explain the math behind the $1,000 in savings but the rest of the math is wrong. In actuality, the average American family makes $74,000 a year before taxes, or about $30,000 less than that, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The median American family income is roughly half of Cohn’s estimate, or only about $55,000.

And I don’t think I can remodel my kitchen or buy a new car for $1,000. Cohn also claimed, “The wealthy are not getting a tax cut under our plan.” That’s simply not true. This is a huge tax cut for the top 1 percent. Math will be an important part of any tax plan, something the politicians haven’t figured out yet.

Puerto Rico is struggling to recover from what its governor called its “biggest catastrophe in modern history,” with Hurricane Maria’s devastation spiraling the country into a humanitarian crisis. After much criticism that the U.S. was not doing enough to help, Trump waived the Jones Act to speed up shipments to the island.

The Jones Act is a 1920 law that prohibits foreign boats from shuttling goods between US harbors. That will make it a bit easier to get food, water, and other products to Puerto Rican ports. But it will have little impact on what is a more pressing problem. Getting supplies from those ports to the people who need them.

Thousands of cargo containers bearing millions of emergency meals and other relief supplies have been piling up on San Juan’s docks since Saturday. Even with moves to ease shipping to the island, the docks have become choke points in the effort to aid storm survivors and may not reach those who need them for days. If nothing else, Maria is a cautionary tale about the vulnerabilities of the supply chain.

The Facebook group United Muslims of America was neither united, Muslim, nor American. Among their various tactics, Russians impersonated real American Muslims to stir chaos on Facebook and Instagram. (And let’s not leave out Twitter, since the Russians didn’t).

Twitter today disclosed to congressional investigators that more than 200 Russia-linked accounts had been used to spread propaganda and misinformation on the company’s platform. The company said that, over the coming months, it will be introducing new ways to detect malicious activity, although it did not provide specifics.

The European Union is once again asking Facebook, Google, Twitter, and other web companies to crack down on hate speech and speech inciting violence and terrorism — but this time, it’s taking things a step further. The European Commission has issued guidelines for web companies to follow, and it’s warning the companies that, if they don’t comply, the Commission may pass legislation. And that legislation, of course, could lead to some huge fines.

The Supremes are back on the bench. The Supreme Court kicked off their new term with the justices hearing three consolidated cases with far-reaching implications for wage-earners. The cases—Epic Systems Corp. v. LewisErnst & Young LLP v. Morris, and National Labor Relations Board v. Murphy Oil USA, Inc.—are all about whether employers have the right to compel workers go through onerous individual arbitration proceedings in order to bring labor law claims.

If the justices answer that question in the affirmative, then the affected workers will—as a practical matter—find it nearly impossible to win back pay in cases involving wage law violations. In the typical case involving wage law violations plaintiffs bring what’s called a collective action (similar, but not identical to, a class action) to recover back pay from a common employer.

Each worker’s claim might be worth only a few hundred or few thousand dollars, but when the defendant is a large firm with lots of similarly situated employees, the collective action might be worth millions. It’s much easier to find competent counsel to litigate a potentially more lucrative collective action.

To pre-empt this possibility, more firms are inserting individual arbitration clauses into employee contracts. In a series of opinions in recent years—including three authored between 2011 and 2013 by the late conservative Justice Antonin Scalia—the court has repeatedly ruled that consumers were barred from bringing class actions by arbitration clauses they had signed as a condition of receiving a product or service.

In the first three years after the court’s pro-arbitration ruling in AT&T Mobility v. Concepcion in 2011, the number of companies using arbitration clauses to preclude employee class actions jumped from 16.1% to 42.7%. Almost 25 million private-sector, nonunion employees are now subject to class waivers contained in arbitration clauses.

Though the three specific cases before the court all involve overtime claims under the Fair Labor Standards Act, the precedent that will be created appears likely also to impact class claims brought under the Equal Pay Act, the Family Medical Leave Act, the Age Discrimination in Employment Act, and Title VII of the Civil Rights Act.

Every time the price of a barrel of crude rises above $50, US shale drillers ramp up production to take advantage of the surge. Then, as supply increases, prices fall. We may be seeing the start of that trend again after oil rose from $46 to more than $52 only to ease back closer to $51 today. Government data released yesterday showed American drillers lifted output almost 9 percent during the past three weeks, the biggest three-week increase in half a decade.

Drug maker AbbVie climbed after it resolved a patent dispute over Amgen’s version of AbbVie’s drug Humira, which is the source of most of its revenue. Amgen agreed not to begin selling its version of the anti-inflammatory medicine in Europe until October 2018, and the U.S. version won’t go on the market until Jan. 31, 2023. The settlement would mean billions of dollars in additional sales for AbbVie, which reported $16 billion in Humira sales in 2016.

Abbott Laboratories jumped after the Food and Drug Administration approved its FreeStyle Libre Flash glucose monitoring system for adults with Type 1 diabetes. The product uses a sensor inserted below the skin to measure blood glucose. Analysts say Abbott could have a competitive edge because the FDA did not advise patients to take samples of their blood to confirm the system’s readings.

Drugstore chain Rite Aid dropped after its quarterly revenue fell short of Wall Street’s forecasts. The stock lost 26 cents, or 11.2 percent, to $2.03. Earlier this month the company agreed to sell almost half of its stores to rival Walgreens for $4.38 billion, but the slimmed-down deal was smaller than investors had hoped.

Ikea has purchased TaskRabbit, which is a gig-economy app that lets users pay a handyman to assemble their Ikea furniture. That’s the kind of can-do spirit that we need around here.

Monday, June 26, 2017

Scored

Financial Review

Scored


DOW + 14 = 21,409
SPX +0.77 = 2439
NAS – 18 = 6247
RUT + 1 = 1416
10 Y UN = 2.14%
OIL + .42 = 43.43
GOLD – 12.10 = 1245.50

Another quiet day on Wall Street. That is the new normal. The S&P 500 this year has been more likely to move less than 0.1 percent than to move more than 0.5 percent in a trading session. The index has closed at least 1 percent higher or lower a mere four times this year.

The CBOE volatility index has fallen to 23-year lows. And still the market keeps inching higher. The market is still hovering near record highs.

The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office has released its score of the Better Care Reconciliation Act, this is the Senate version of legislation to repeal and replace Obamacare. The Senate Republican health care bill would leave 22 million fewer Americans with health insurance by 2026 than under Obamacare.

And while that is a slight improvement on 23 million that would lose insurance under the House version, it is still a dreadful number. Next year, 15 million more people would be uninsured compared with current law. Like the House bill, the Senate’s version would end enhanced funding for Medicaid expansion, though at a slower pace, while overhauling the entire Medicaid program.

It would eliminate the mandates that require nearly all Americans to have coverage and companies with more than 50 workers to provide health benefits. And it would jettison Obamacare’s taxes on the wealthy, insurers and others, while allowing insurers to charge more to older policyholders.

However, the Senate bill would maintain much of Obamacare’s subsidy structure to help people pay for individual coverage, but make it less generous, particularly for older enrollees. And it would keep more of Obamacare’s insurance regulations than the House legislation. The Senate version also provides funds to stabilize the Obamacare market over the next few years, including money for a key set of subsidies for insurers.

The legislation is wildly unpopular. Before the budget office released its report this afternoon, the American Medical Association officially announced its opposition to the bill, and the National Governors Association urged the Senate to slow down. The AARP slammed the Senate GOP bill, calling efforts to repeal and replace ObamaCare “harmful” and denouncing what it calls an “Age Tax” affecting the nation’s senior citizens.

The GOP plan allows insurance companies to charge older adults up to five times more than younger people, while under ObamaCare older Americans can only be charged three times as much as younger people. The lobbying group for seniors accused Senate GOP leaders of crafting legislation in “secrecy” that “would hit millions of Americans with higher costs and result in less coverage for them.”

Here are a few other key findings from the CBO:
Premiums would increase in 2018 and 2019 compared to the current baseline, but decline thereafter: According to the CBO, premiums would increase 30% more than the current projection in 2018 and 10% higher than the current baseline in 2019. From 2020 and beyond, the change in the risk pool with older and poorer Americans likely priced out would bring these premiums down.

Deductibles and out of pocket costs would increase substantially: The benchmark plan on the individual insurance market would have an actuarial value of 58%, meaning insurance was obligated to cover 58% of the total costs. That is down from the current 70% benchmark value. According to the CBO, that opens the door for higher deductibles and out-of-pocket costs.

Earlier today, Republicans released changes to their healthcare bill, adding a measure that would penalize people who let their insurance coverage lapse. The revised bill would impose a six-month waiting period for anyone who lets their health insurance lapse for over 63 days and then wants to re-enroll in a plan in the individual market.

The legislation would decrease federal deficits by a total of $321 billion over a decade; more than the $119 million in savings in the House bill, between 2017 and 2026. The savings are made possible by cutting $862 billion in spending over that time-frame while also reducing tax revenue by $541 billion. It represents a big tax cut for wealthy taxpayers, but even bigger spending cuts, mainly to Medicaid.

That means the legislation can continue under the budget reconciliation process, which only requires 51 votes to pass. As of today, it does not have enough votes to pass. Five Republican senators have said they would not vote for the BCRA, several others have indicated they are leaning in the direction of a vote against and it doesn’t look like the CBO score will help turn those to support the bill.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is insisting on a vote this week before lawmakers leave town for the July 4th recess, but a vote could be delayed, especially if it looks like it will go down in flames. Look for tweaking, name calling, arm twisting and much more over the coming days or weeks.

The Supreme Court will allow most of the Trump administration’s travel ban to go forward before it hears a case on the matter in October. The ruling grants a stay of lower court rulings that had piled up against the administration. The court’s decision found that the lower courts’ preliminary injunctions, which fully halted the key provisions of the executive order, were too broad.

So, the court narrowed these injunctions, ruling that the travel ban “may not be enforced against foreign nationals who have a credible claim of a bona fide relationship with a person or entity in the United States.”

That would apply to people who have family members stateside, those who have been admitted to a college or hired by an employer. However, “all other foreign nationals are still subject to the provisions” of the order.

In practice, the court’s ruling means Trump’s travel ban won’t be able to affect the great majority of foreign nationals who were trying to get to the U.S. from the six countries. It was already extremely difficult to get a visa from these countries unless you had family ties or a specific invitation.

The court also set arguments on the merits of the case for the first day of its next term in early October. The government may now exclude citizens from six Muslim-majority countries from coming into the United States unless they have some meaningful connection with a “person or entity” in the country. The court’s order also allows the government to exclude refugees, even those who are already vetted and poised to resettle here, unless they have the required connections.

SCOTUS agreed to consider whether employees who report misconduct at their companies are entitled to protections as “whistleblowers” if they report the alleged wrongdoing only internally, not to the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The announcement is welcome news for corporate defendants that have lamented the broad way in which the SEC and some federal courts have interpreted the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial overhaul, which is ambiguous about whether employees who only make internal corporate reports of securities fraud are protected under federal law.

The Supreme Court also agreed to consider whether the Constitution’s religion clauses allow a bakery to deny service to gay couples. In a separate ruling, the Supremes ruled that the Constitution requires states to list married same-sex couples on their children’s birth certificate. The decision marks a landmark victory for gay rights, confirming that the court’s decision in Obergefell v. Hodges protects all rights relating to marriage, not simply the recognition of marriage itself.

The Supreme Court ruled that taxpayer-funded grants for playgrounds available to nonprofits under a state program could not be denied to a school run by a church.

The Supreme Court declined to hear a Second Amendment challenge to a California law that places strict limits on carrying guns in public. The California case essentially bans carrying guns openly in public and allows carrying concealed weapons only if applicants can demonstrate good cause.

Orders for durable goods such as planes and computers fell in May for the second month in a row and registered the biggest drop in six months. Durable-goods orders slipped 1.1% last month following a similar decline in April. A key measure of business investment known as core capital-goods orders, meanwhile, fell 0.2% to mark the first decline of 2017. Businesses that were eagerly anticipating tax and regulatory relief may be taking a wait-and-see attitude.

Government websites in Ohio, Maryland and New York have been hacked with what appears to be pro-ISIS propaganda. It was not immediately clear who the group is — or whether it is genuinely affiliated with ISIS. The Ohio sites were back to normal this morning.

Twitter, Facebook, YouTube and Microsoft have formed the Global Internet Forum to Counter Terrorism. The group will share technical tools for combating extremist content, such as violent imagery and terrorist propaganda, and commission research to guide future resources. It’ll also work with academic and policy experts to learn more about terrorism.

Martin Shkreli, the former pharmaceutical executive is going to trial. In 2017, Shkreli sparked outrage in 2015 for increasing the price of Daraprim, a drug used by AIDS patients, by more than 5,000% from $13.50 to $750 a pill while he was CEO of Turing Pharmaceuticals. But the trial deals with charges of securities fraud, wire fraud and conspiracy for allegedly cheating investors out of more than $11 million between 2009 and 2014 in what federal prosecutors called a “Ponzi scheme.”

Wednesday, March 29, 2017

London Calling

Financial Review

London Calling


DOW – 42 = 20,659
SPX + 2 = 2361
NAS + 22 = 5897
RUT + 4 = 1371
10 Y – .02 = 2.39%
OIL + 1.23 = 49.60
GOLD + 2.10 = 1254.40

Brexit is Brexit. Prime Minister Theresa May formally began Britain’s divorce from the European Union today, declaring there was no turning back. With the simple hand-off of a letter in Brussels, the British government became the first to trigger Article 50 — the mechanism for nations to exit the European Union.

The UK now has two years to negotiate the terms of the exit before it comes into effect in late March 2019. Over the next 2 years, the Brits will negotiate with 27 other EU states on finance, trade, security and other complex issues.

As the BBC points out: “Unpicking 43 years of treaties and agreements covering thousands of different subjects was never going to be a straightforward task. It is further complicated by the fact that it has never been done before and negotiators will, to some extent, be making it up as they go along.

The post-Brexit trade deal is likely to be the most complex part of the negotiation because it needs the unanimous approval of more than 30 national and regional parliaments across Europe, some of whom may want to hold referendums.” The outcome of the negotiations will shape the future of Britain’s $2.6 trillion economy, the world’s fifth biggest, and determine whether London can keep its place as one of the top two global financial centers.

For the EU, already reeling from successive crises over debt and refugees, the loss of Britain is the biggest blow yet to 60 years of efforts to forge European unity in the wake of two world wars. Its leaders say they do not want to punish Britain.

But they are expected to take a hard stand, in hopes of discouraging other member states possibly considering a similar break away. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has rejected one of Theresa May’s key Brexit demands, insisting negotiations on Britain’s exit from the European Union cannot run in parallel with talks on the future UK-EU relationship.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister May is trying to hold the UK together. Nicola Sturgeon has pledged to press on with a fresh independence referendum after dismissing Theresa May’s promise of substantial new powers for Scotland after Brexit. The first minister said May’s decision to trigger article 50, was one of the most destructive acts by a British leader in modern history, threatening hundreds of thousands of jobs across the UK.

Donald Tusk, the president of the European council, warned after receiving May’s letter that there would be “no winners” from Brexit, and the next two years would be a matter of “damage control”.

Is right now as good as it gets for the US economy? San Francisco Fed President John Williams seems to be saying we’re getting pretty darn close. Williams said that the economy was “in a good place,” and that the Fed’s job has now changed from getting the economy back on track to keeping the economy on track.

It’s an important distinction. As the economy has recovered from the Great Recession of 2009 when the unemployment rate hit 10%, the Fed has moved from stabilizing the US economy and bringing it back to life, to now keeping an eye on making sure it doesn’t overheat as the rate of unemployment has dropped to 4.7%. And right now, we basically have a Goldilocks economy – not too hot, not too cold. Williams said he “would not rule out more than three increases total for this year.”

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren argued today that four hikes in 2017 may be needed to guard against economic overheating. Rosengren said, “The economy is in a much better spot. We’re basically where we want to be, and we don’t want to grow so much faster than potential at this point that we end up getting to an unsustainable unemployment rate that would be reflected either in inflation or in higher asset prices.”

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans filled out the trio of Fedspeakers today, saying the fundamentals of the US economy are good and calling for another one or two increases in short-term interest rates this year. Evans cast doubt on the Trump administration’s stated intention to boost the growth rate to a 3% to 4% range. The Chicago Fed president said sustainable growth at that level would require “some truly astounding turnarounds in demographic and technological trends,” and the odds of this occurring “seem to be pretty low.”

Contract signings for home sales boomed in February to the second-highest level in a decade. The National Association of Realtors reported pending home sales rose 5.5% in February after falling 2.8% in January. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed. The NAR said the rising stock market and steady hiring helped, as did fears from home buyers of rising interest rates.

Well, that didn’t take long. Yesterday, President Trump signed an executive order, repealing the Clean Power Act. Already, the lawsuits are flying. The Northern Cheyenne Tribe, located in southern Montana, said the administration lifted a moratorium on coal leases on public land without first consulting with tribal leaders about the impact the coal-leasing program has on the tribe, its members and lands.

In a separate lawsuit filed on yesterday by environmental group Earthjustice, a coalition of conservation groups challenged the administration’s moratorium decision, arguing that it imperils public health for the benefit of coal companies.

And the idea of a clean environment has even attracted some strange bedfellows. Exxon Mobil has written to the Trump administration urging it to keep the US in the 2015 Paris climate agreement. Calling the accord “an effective framework,” Exxon cited several reasons to stay in the pact, including the opportunity to support greater use of natural gas, since it creates lower carbon emissions than coal when used for power generation.

Also, the CEO of ConocoPhillips, is saying that the U.S. should stay in the Paris Climate Agreement. For ConocoPhillips and Exxon – as well the non-US oil and gas heavyweights; BP, Royal Dutch Shell, Eni, Total, and Statoil—backing the Paris Agreement is not just riding the trend of increasingly environmentally-conscious businesses.

Those companies with operations all over the world stand to benefit from the Paris Agreement because the nations’ efforts to cut carbon emissions will lead to transitioning from coal-fired plants to gas-fired plants. And natural gas is quite a substantial portion of all those majors’ businesses, investments and profits.

Meanwhile, the White House and House Republicans have quietly begun new talks on repealing Obamacare.  The New York Times writes, Trump’s chief strategist Stephen Bannon has been meeting with members of two Republican factions that sank the bill last week, the Freedom Caucus and the Tuesday Group. Trump told senators at a White House reception Tuesday night that “we are all going to make a deal on health care.”

Following last week’s vote in the Senate, the US House has voted 215-205 to repeal Obama-era regulations governing consumer privacy protection at Internet service providers. If passed into law, the repeal will again allow ISPs to sell consumer information, including browsing history, without customer consent.

A New York law that barred retailers from charging customers more when they use credit cards instead of cash hit a legal roadblock Wednesday when the Supreme Court sent the law back to a lower court for more review. The justices agreed with merchants in New York state that the law curtailed their free speech by mandating what they say to their customers about the credit card fees.

The lower court had upheld the New York law as a pricing regulation only and not as a matter of free speech. The Supreme Court has a standing belief that money is speech, and therefore protected. Maybe now we’ll find out if credit cards are protected speech.

The evolution of stock picking has taken a toll on jobs and fees at BlackRock, as the world’s biggest money manager said it will increasingly rely on data-mining technology to make investment decisions. Over forty staff will be laid off, including some portfolio managers. The revamp marks BlackRock’s biggest attempt to rejuvenate its actively managed equities business as investors shift to ETFs.

Last year, Samsung received dozens of complaints about the Galaxy Note 7 overheating, and in some cases exploding, the company recalled the phones. But replacement phones continued to catch fire, and the company had to recall the devices a second time before killing the product altogether. Samsung lost billions in revenue.

Today, Samsung unveiled the new Galaxy S8, with a big version and a bigger version; they will arrive in stores next month with a starting price of $750. Perhaps the most curious bit of news, though, isn’t about the phones so much as it is an accessory that supports them: the DeX. Short for “desktop extension,” it’s a little dock that effectively turns the Galaxy S8 or S8 Plus into a desktop computer.

Amazon closed today at $874, a new record high. Amazon’s stock price has rocketed 50% in the past 12 months, adding to the net-worth of its largest shareholder, founder Jeff Bezos. The Amazon founder is now worth $75.6 billion, per Bloomberg, surpassing Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffet ($75.5 billion) and Amancio Ortega, chairman of Inditex fashion group ($74.1 billion). Bill Gates is still the richest man in the world with a net-worth of $86 billion.

Marijuana will be legal for all Canadians over the age of 18 by July 1, 2018. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party will officially announce the plan on April 10. The legislation is expected to easily pass through Parliament, as it holds support from major political parties both to the right, and left of Trudeau’s Liberals. As well, a majority of Canadians support legalizing marijuana.