Morning in Arizona

Morning in Arizona
Rainbows over Canyonlands - Dave Stoker

The Headline Animator

Showing posts with label Rex Tillerson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rex Tillerson. Show all posts

Thursday, November 30, 2017

24K Magic

Financial Review

24K Magic


DOW + 331 = 24,272 (Record)
SPX + 21 = 2647 (Record)
NAS + 49 = 6873
RUT + 1 = 1544 (Record)
10 Y + .04 = 2.42%
OIL + .08 = 57.38
GOLD – 8.80 = 1275.60

Cryptocurrency

Top Cryptocurrencies

  Name Symbol Price USD Market Cap Volume (24h) Total Vol. % Price BTC Chg. % 1D Chg. % 7D

Bitcoin BTC 9,621.2 $165.88B $8.02B 50.52% 1 -2.89% +22.45%

Ethereum ETH 422.70 $41.83B $1.76B 11.10% 0.0444209 -2.24% +5.17%

Bitcoin Cash BCH 1,276.60 $22.52B $1.10B 6.94% 0.136491 -2.71% -19.01%

Ripple XRP 0.23100 $9.46B $243.48M 1.53% 0.00002497 -2.53% -0.01%

Dash DASH 752.00 $6.05B $489.20M 3.08% 0.079939 -0.84% +38.02%

Bitcoin Gold BTG 277.95 $4.88B $139.16M 0.88% 0.0298825 -2.98% -4.96%

Litecoin LTC 84.410 $4.65B $461.73M 2.91% 0.00876616 -1.75% +15.77%

IOTA MIOTA 1.27000 $3.58B $166.62M 1.05% 0.00013133 -3.13% +64.12%

Cardano ADA 0.115385 $3.02B $120.63M 0.76% 0.00001187 -0.94% +321.83%

Monero XMR 166.19 $2.68B $116.47M 0.73% 0.0176935 -5.17% +7.76%  

Record highs for the Dow, the S&P, and the Russell. The Nasdaq recovered nicely from a nearly 1.5% decline yesterday, but not enough for a record.

Well, it’s easy to see that the promise of a tax cut has been a big boost to Wall Street. Some estimates claim a corporate tax cut could boost S&P 500 earnings by 6%. The Senate convened at 10:30 a.m. this morning to continue discussing the bill after it passed a procedural vote on Wednesday. Republicans are using special procedures that shield the measure from a Democratic filibuster.

Debate on the legislation is limited to 20 hours. When the debate ends, it will be time for a vote-a-rama, a marathon of amendment votes. Eventually, the Senate would vote to pass the tax bill. But before then, the contents of that bill are expected to change. Republicans have been discussing significant revisions to their bill as party leaders try to secure the votes they need for passage.

The congressional Joint Committee on Taxation said Wednesday afternoon that the Senate tax bill would add $1 trillion to federal budget deficits over the next decade, even after accounting for additional economic growth, a major blow to Republicans’ contention that the $1.5 trillion tax cuts in the bill will pay for themselves through growth.

The committee, which serves as the scorekeeper for growth and revenue estimates in tax bills, estimated that the Senate bill would boost economic growth by 0.8 percent over a decade. Republicans have said they expect substantially stronger growth than that to result from the tax cuts.

Throughout the tax debate over the last month, Republican leaders have frequently cited other analyses by the committee to make their case for the bill. The committee said economic growth generated by the tax cut will offset losses by about $458 billion over the next decade. Over that same period, an additional $51 billion will be needed to pay interest on the additional debt the government will borrow to pay for the tax cuts.

The Joint Committee on Taxation calculates the budgetary effects of changes in economic growth are projected to reduce the deficit by $407 billion during the budget window, with the net deficit increasing by $1 trillion. That’s consistent with the findings of the Penn-Wharton model, which projects the Senate tax bill would increase growth by less than 0.1 percent a year, due largely to the drag from increased debt.

Congressional Republicans and the Trump administration have yet to produce an analysis supporting their claims that the $1.5 trillion tax cut would not add to federal budget deficits. Instead, they cite a ballpark estimate of the additional economic growth the tax plan will unleash, which, they say, should be enough to make the cuts pay for themselves.

While there are still many unresolved details to the Tax Plan, at its core it is legislation that will change major areas of American life, plus everything from education to health care. Corporate taxes, along with those on wealthy Americans, would be slashed on the presumption that when people in penthouses get relief, the benefits flow down to basement tenements.

Elements in both the House and Senate bills could constrain the ability of state and local governments to levy their own taxes, pressuring them to limit spending on health care, education, public transportation and social services.

The Congressional Budget Office warned the tax cut package could trigger rules mandating cuts to Medicare. Some 13 million people could lose health care via the elimination of a key plank of Obamacare.

Insurance premiums are also expected to rise by 10 percent. The House bill includes provisions that would end the deductibility of tuition waivers for graduate students and repeal the deduction for interest paid on student loans. Both chambers’ bills would tax investment earnings from university endowments.

Economists and tax experts are overwhelmingly skeptical that the bills in the House and Senate can generate meaningful job growth and economic expansion. Many view the legislation not as a product of genuine deliberation, but as a transfer of wealth to corporations and affluent individuals — both generous purveyors of campaign contributions.

According to the Joint Committee on Taxation and the Congressional Budget Office, by 2027, people making $40,000 to $50,000 would pay a combined $5.3 billion more in taxes, while the group earning $1 million or more would get a $5.8 billion cut.

In a recent University of Chicago survey of 38 prominent economists across the ideological spectrum, only one said the proposed tax cuts would yield substantial economic growth. Unanimously, the economists said the tax cuts would add to the long-term federal debt burden, now estimated at more than $20 trillion.

Consumer spending slowed in October as the hurricane-related boost to motor vehicle purchases faded, while a sustained increase in underlying price pressures suggested that a recent disinflationary trend had probably run its course.

The Commerce Department said consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rose 0.3 percent last month after surging 0.9 percent in September. The jump in spending in September was the largest since August 2009 and was spurred by some drivers in Texas and Florida replacing automobiles destroyed when Hurricanes Harvey and Irma slammed the states.

Spending on long-lasting goods like autos fell 0.1 percent last month after accelerating 2.9 percent in September. Spending on nondurable goods such as prescription drugs and recreational items rose 0.2 percent. Outlays on services increased 0.3 percent.

The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index excluding food and energy, rose 0.2 percent in October after a similar gain in September. The so-called core PCE increased 1.4 percent in the 12 months through October.

The Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 238,000 for the week ended Nov. 25. Last week marked the 143rd consecutive week that claims remained below the 300,000 threshold, which is associated with a strong labor market. That is the longest such stretch since 1970, when the labor market was smaller. The labor market is near full employment, with the jobless rate at a 17-year low of 4.1 percent.

The White House is contemplating a scenario to replace Secretary of State Rex Tillerson with CIA Director Mike Pompeo within the next few months, according to multiple reports. There’s no decision yet on the timing of Tillerson’s departure, which has been expected for months. But multiple sources close to the White House and across government said Pompeo is the leading candidate to take over at the State Department.

Shares of the retail-pharmacy giant CVS and health insurer Aetna jumped in trading on Thursday after The Wall Street Journal reported that the two companies were nearing a deal. CVS was reported in late October to be in talks to buy Aetna in a deal worth about $66 billion. According to the latest report, CVS is nearing a majority-cash purchase of Aetna of $200 to $205 a share. Aetna’s stock gained 2% on the news. CVS rose by as much as 5%.

Aetna previously agreed to buy rival insurer Human for $34 billion, but the Department of Justice blocked that deal. A judge ruled in favor of the DOJ in January, saying a combination of the two companies would be anticompetitive.

For CVS, the acquisition is a way to fend off competition from Amazon, which has been speculated to be interested in the healthcare industry. It would allow the retailer to keep a greater share of each drug sale and to direct more Aetna clients into its stores.

OPEC members and other oil-producing countries agreed to extend production cuts until the end of 2018. Crude prices rose.

Kroger jumped more than 6 percent after the company forecast strong same-store sales for the four quarter and posted better-than-expected earnings.

Meanwhile, Costco shares climbed 3.9 percent after the company reported a 7.9 percent rises in same-store sales for November.

This weekend, for the several billionth or so time in Earth’s history, the Moon will be in the part of its orbit around Earth where it’s a little closer, 16,000 miles closer than usual, and it looks a teeny amount larger. Call it a Supermoon or whatever, you should look at the moon – this weekend, tonight, every night. It helps keep things in perspective.

Thursday, February 09, 2017

Hat Trick

Financial Review

Hat Trick


DOW + 118 = 20,172
SPX + 13 = 2307
NAS + 32 = 5715
RUT + 19 = 1378
10 Y + .05 = 2.40%
OIL + .71 = 53.05
GOLD – 12.40 = 1229.60

We have new record high closes for the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq. It’s a hat trick.

The chief executives of several airlines, as well as executives from air cargo companies, were invited to a breakfast meeting at the White House this morning. Trump called the air-traffic control system “outdated” and he told the execs: “We have an obsolete plane system, we have obsolete trains, we have obsolete airports, we have bad roads. And we’re going to change all that.”

Trump also said: “We’re going to be announcing something I would say over the two or three weeks that will be phenomenal in terms of tax and developing our aviation infrastructure.” He gave no indication of what the announcement might entail. Presumably the “phenomenal” tax and infrastructure plan does not apply solely to the airline industry, and Wall Street lapped it up. He went on to say: “Lowering the overall tax burden on American business is big league.”

The rally had stagnated in recent days as investors sought details about Trump’s policy agenda. Financials, which have soared since the election, were the best-performing group, up 1.4 percent after three sessions of declines, while energy shares gained 0.9 percent. Those sectors stand to benefit should lower taxes spur economic activity as interest rates and the demand for energy would presumably rise.

After 18 months of courtship and court cases, two massive deals that would have reshaped the U.S. health insurance industry have both been declared dead. Anthem’s $48 billion deal to buy Cigna was blocked by a federal judge late Wednesday, weeks after another judge halted Aetna’s bid for Humana. Reasons given: The mergers would have led to less competition and higher prices for Americans.

Applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S. unexpectedly declined last week to an almost three-month low. Jobless claims fell by 12,000 to 234,000 in the week ended Feb. 4. The latest results extend a trend of historically low claims, with applications staying below 300,000 in the longest streak since 1970. A shortage of skilled workers is prompting companies to hold on to existing employees while continuing to add more workers to help fulfill demand.

The Senate has confirmed Jeff Sessions as attorney general largely along party lines. The 52-47 vote capped weeks of divisive battles over Sessions, an early supporter of President Trump. Next up is Representative Tom Price, Trump’s pick for health secretary and a staunch advocate of repealing Obamacare. A vote come could come later tonight.

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson met his Canadian counterpart for the first time on Wednesday for talks that touched on NAFTA, the trade agreement President Trump has pledged to renegotiate. The top US diplomat also met with Mexico’s foreign minister to discuss collaboration on law enforcement, migration and security, and agreed to visit the country in the coming weeks.

A US court of appeals is reviewing arguments on whether to reinstate the Trump administration’s temporary ban on immigration, with the outcome likely to be appealed to the Supreme Court.

Meanwhile, Trump’s first executive order, signed January 25, entitled: “Border Security and Immigration Enforcement Improvements” resurrects some of the most controversial immigration enforcement programs of recent years, seeks to deputize state and local law enforcement as immigration officials across the country, and threatens major cuts to federal funding for cities that fail to fall in line with the administration’s vision.

Trump has called for the construction of new immigrant detention facilities along the U.S. border with Mexico – including through private contracts – as quickly as possible, and there have been requests for additional asylum officers at 2 for-profit Detention Centers in Arizona.

A Dallas federal judge has upheld the Labor Department’s fiduciary rule, dealing a setback to the financial industry’s attempts to kill the measure. But the legal move may not mean much for the regulation’s fate. Last Friday, President Trump issued a memorandum to study the rule’s impact and rescind or revise it if it isn’t consistent with his administration’s regulatory principles. A status report will be published on March 10.

Boeing won orders for 39 wide-body aircraft from Singapore Airlines; a deal worth about $14 billion, as Southeast Asia’s biggest long-distance carrier upgrades its fleet over the next decade with more fuel-efficient models to cut costs.  The airline agreed to buy 20 777-9s, which are set to debut at the decade’s end, and 19 787-10s, the longest Dreamliner model.

There’s a good chance you can’t get there from here. More than 2,700 flights were canceled and all public schools in New York City, Boston and Philadelphia will be closed today as the region braced for a winter storm that could dump a foot of snow or more.

President Trump has written a letter to China’s President Xi Jinping in his first direct communication with the leader of the world’s second-biggest economy since he took office. With currency wars threatening to raise their head again, China has managed to get the yuan exactly where it wants it.

The nation’s authorities have let the currency rise against the dollar, making it harder for the U.S. administration to accuse it of undervaluing the exchange rate, while at the same letting the yuan weaken against a trade-weighted basket of currencies.

Greece’s two-year bond yield climbed above 10 percent as negotiations to release further IMF funds remained deadlocked. The International Monetary Fund weighed in this week, publishing a long-awaited analysis of the challenges the Greek economy still faces. The report has been the focal point of heated disagreement between the fund and Europe in terms of what Greece needs to do to get back on track.

The fund has argued that, in addition to needed reforms, European governments must provide debt relief to Greece for the country’s economy to recover fully. Meanwhile, Astellon Capital, a hedge fund based in London, published analysis saying that some form of restructuring is essential for Italy, given the inability of the country’s economy to grow.

The Astellon report also notes that the E.C.B. and sickly Italian banks have been the main buyers of Italian government bonds over the past three years. Also, Mediobanca, the Italian investment bank published a report which highlights just how little Italy has benefited from being in the euro: Growth has been literally zero, and the economy’s competitiveness as an exporter has deteriorated.

Twitter reported fourth-quarter revenue was $717 million, missing the $740 million average analyst estimate. Sales growth of 1 percent slowed dramatically in the period from the 48 percent gain a year earlier. Twitter added 2 million new users, bringing the total number of people who log in monthly to 319 million. Twitter has had trouble persuading advertisers to spend more money on its social-media platform as fewer people join.

Coca-Cola offered up a flat earnings report. Excluding items, the company earned 37 cents per share, in line with estimates. Net operating revenue fell about 6 percent to $9.41 billion, the seventh straight drop, but slightly ahead of estimates. The company forecast 2017 adjusted earnings to fall 1-4 percent from 2016. Coca-Cola has been offloading much of its bottling business to cope with falling demand for carbonated beverages in North America. Coke said it was on track to complete re-franchising of its US bottling operations by the end of this year.

Whole Foods is shrinking its store count for the first time since the recession. After reporting disappointing earnings, the upscale grocer says it will close 9 stores; including one in Prescott.

With about 70 percent of the S&P 500 having reported results, fourth-quarter earnings are on track to have climbed 8.5 percent, which would be the best performance since the third quarter of 2014, according to Thomson Reuters.