Morning in Arizona

Morning in Arizona
Rainbows over Canyonlands - Dave Stoker

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Showing posts with label Jeff Flake. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jeff Flake. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 24, 2017

Debasement

Financial Review

Debasement


DOW + 167 = 23,441 (Record)
SPX + 4 = 2569
NAS + 11 = 6598
RUT + 2 = 1500
10 Y + .03 = 2.41%
OIL + .55 = 52.45
GOLD – 5.70 = 1277.30

Cryptocurrency

  • Number of Currencies: 877
  • Total Market Cap: $162,434,872,389
  • 24H Volume: $4,775,232,645

Top Cryptocurrencies

  Name Symbol Price USD Market Cap Vol. Total Vol. % Price BTC Chg. % 1D Chg. % 7D
  Bitcoin BTC 5,389.1 $90.68B $2.49B 52.05% 1 -2.19% -1.58%
  Ethereum ETH 289.97 $27.88B $585.60M 12.26% 0.0539363 -2.14% -6.42%
  Ripple XRP 0.19920 $7.81B $197.42M 4.13% 0.00003745 -1.98% -12.17%
  Bitcoin Cash BCH 317.26 $5.38B $247.20M 5.18% 0.0593921 -1.59% -12.37%
  Litecoin LTC 54.230 $2.93B $168.61M 3.53% 0.0101183 -2.48% -6.49%
  Dash DASH 288.40 $2.23B $57.30M 1.20% 0.0540349 -0.60% -1.56%
  NEM XEM 0.20618 $1.87B $5.12M 0.11% 0.00003837 -2.73% -3.50%
  NEO NEO 28.700 $1.46B $66.91M 1.40% 0.00539108 -3.89% -4.28%
  BitConnect BCC 190.311 $1.38B $12.04M 0.25% 0.0350855 -0.41% -0.58%
  Monero XMR 86.84 $1.34B $37.51M 0.79% 0.0162163 -1.84% -3.26%

Another record high close for the Dow Industrial Average.

Caterpillar and 3M delivered results that topped estimates, while General Motors and Fiat Chrysler also rallied on earnings. Japanese equities built on recent gains, with the Nikkei climbing for a record-breaking 16th consecutive session.

Caterpillar’s earnings announcement reinforced the view that the international economic expansion is the most synchronized since the start of the decade. Cat projected 2017 sales of $44 billion, marking a third straight increase in annual revenue forecasts. But what stood out was the breadth of demand for its products.

Sales surged 27 percent in North America as the U.S. oil and gas industry cranked up, while China’s growing construction market helped sales in the Asia Pacific region balloon 31 percent. Dealers’ replenishing of inventories boosted sales in Europe, Africa and the Middle East by 22 percent and “stabilizing economic conditions” in Latin America lifted sales by 24 percent. Caterpillar earnings were more than 50 percent higher than what analysts were expecting. Shares popped by 6.7% today.

3M’s third-quarter earnings beat the highest analyst estimate, and the company increased its projected profit for the year. United Technologies also raised its profit forecast amid strength in demand for jet engines. Orders for business equipment in the US have also been increasing in recent months, which probably helped boost third-quarter growth.

AT&T’s quarterly results missed Wall Street estimates as the US No. 2 wireless carrier lost video subscribers to traditional and online TV competitors and fewer of its existing customers upgraded their devices ahead of Apple’s launch of the iPhone X. AT&T, which owns satellite television service DirecTV, said it lost 89,000 US video subscribers in the quarter

BlackRock downgraded US credit to neutral from overweight, citing “increased vulnerability to downside risk.” Credit spreads have tightened around the globe. The extra premium investors demand to own riskier corporate debt over U.S. government bonds is at the narrow end of a 17-year range. Tight spreads leave little safety cushion against rising interest rates or an increase in default risk.

BlackRock says the market is running at “relatively hot levels, versus a more neutral stance in U.S. equities compared with recent history.” That could make for a crowded exit should sentiment sour. Credit quality has been eroding in pockets of the debt market.

Tax legislation is coming soon, depending on who you listen to. House Freedom Caucus Chairman Mark Meadows said he’s been promised that the House Ways and Means Committee will release its plan about seven days after this Thursday’s scheduled vote on a budget resolution. That would mean a bill text would be published on or before Friday, Nov. 3.

Ways and Means Chairman Kevin Brady said only that the timing for a bill “is very shortly.” But the House decided to vote on the Senate’s version of the budget. And Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch said his own panel needs to produce a plan in the next two to three weeks. Whenever the tax legislation is rolled out, it might be a bumpy ride.

Republican Senator Bob Corker has expressed concern about the impact of the tax plan on the deficit and this morning Corker slammed Trump, saying: “When his term is over I think the debasing of our nation, the constant non-truth-telling, just the name-calling, the debasement of our nation will be what he will be remembered most for, and that’s regretful.”

Trump responded with a tweet calling Corker — who is chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee and isn’t seeking re-election — a “lightweight” who “couldn’t get elected dog catcher” in his home state.

In a separate interview, Corker said the president should stay out of the tax debate. It’s silly to expect any Republican politician to abandon long-held policy positions just because he thinks the Republican president is unfit for office. Still, let’s put Corker in the “undecided” category, at least for now.

Then, this afternoon, Arizona Republican Senator Jeff Flake announced he won’t seek re-election and then delivered a blistering attack on Trump on the Senate floor saying: “We must stop pretending that the conduct of some in our executive branch are normal. They are not normal. Reckless, outrageous and undignified behavior has become excused as telling it like it is when it is actually reckless, outrageous and undignified…

It is often said that children are watching. Well, they are. And what are we doing to do about that? When the next generation asks us, why didn’t you do something? Why didn’t you speak up? What are we going to say? I rise to say, enough!” (Here’s the speech.)

Again, it’s not at all clear that this will matter when it comes to tax cuts, but let’s put Senator Flake in the “undecided” category, at least for now.

And while Corker and Flake might be in the undecided category, along with a few other Republican senators – the public is coming down against Trump’s tax plan. A new Reuters/Ipsos poll released today finds fewer than one-third of Americans support the tax plan. The poll found that more than two-thirds of registered voters said reducing the federal budget deficit is more important than cutting taxes for the wealthy or for corporations.

Among Republicans surveyed, 63 percent said deficit reduction should take priority over tax cuts for corporations, while 75 percent said deficit reduction should take priority over tax cuts for the wealthy. The poll also found that the more people know about the tax plan, the less they like it.

A decade from now, the American economy could look much the way it does today — only more so. More dominated by the service sector jobs and fewer manufacturing jobs. More polarized in both earnings and geography. More tilted toward jobs that require at least a bachelor’s degree. That, at least, is the future foreseen by experts at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which released its projections of what the United States employment picture will look like in 2026. (The estimates are based on long-term trends, not the short-term strength or weakness of the economy.)

The projections reflect some familiar patterns. Jobs in health care and clean energy will continue to grow rapidly. Manufacturing jobs will shrink, as will occupations involving data entry or other tasks that are increasingly being done by machines or algorithms. Overall job growth will continue to be slow, partly because of the aging of the baby boom generation; by 2026, even the youngest boomers will be approaching retirement.

The BLS thinks the fastest growing jobs will be solar photovoltaic installers, wind turbine service technicians, home health aides, personal care aides, and physician assistants. The report suggests that the polarization that has increasingly defined the United States economy will only increase over the next decade.

High-paying jobs in health care, computer science, and other fields heavy in math and science will grow quickly; so will low-paying jobs caring for older adults or waiting on tables. But continuing a decade-old trend, many job categories in the middle of the pay spectrum are growing slowly or disappearing.

For the first year, Americans are expected to spend more money online than in stores this holiday season. According to a survey from Deloitte, shoppers plan to spend 51% of their holiday shopping budget online, compared to 42% in stores. This is the first year that online sales are expected to exceed in-store sales. Deloitte’s survey looks at shoppers’ entire “holiday budget.” However, similar trends are expected to play out over Black Friday weekend.

So, what happens to all those stores that don’t have shoppers anymore? Well, many are closing. And one of the most iconic retail stores, Lord & Taylor announced it would sell its flagship building on Fifth Avenue in Manhattan to a company called WeWorks, a 7-year old office space start up. Lord & Taylor will rent a small portion of the building, but the rest will be used for offices.

Across the United States, retailers are rethinking the uses of their physical spaces, as more shopping moves online, and consumers prefer to spend less time in stores. Many struggling malls have converted their stores into rock-climbing gyms, movie theaters and community colleges. Other shopping centers stand mostly empty.

And it's not just shopping malls that are being re-purposed. In some regions of the country, shuttered manufacturing plants are being reopened for use as warehouses to fulfill the orders Americans are placing online.

Thursday, August 17, 2017

Toxic

Financial Review

Toxic


DOW – 274 = 21,750
SPX – 38 = 2430
NAS – 123 = 6221
RUT – 24 = 1358
10 Y – .03 = 2.20%
OIL + .23 = 47.01
GOLD + 4.70 = 1288.50
BITCOIN – 0.70% = 4286.30 USD
ETHEREUM + 2.42% = 297.73

All 30 companies in the Dow Industrials finished in negative territory.

Cisco Systems fell 4% after the networking-equipment company late Wednesday reported earnings that missed forecasts and lowered its guidance for next quarter, and Walmart fell 1.6% after its results, which included lower-than-expected sales from its Sam’s Club division.

All 11 of the S&P 500’s sectors closed lower on the session, which has only happened two other times this year.

And the Nasdaq was the biggest percentage loser – down 1.9%. The last time all three major benchmarks finished down 1% or more was May 17.

The Dow is now 1.7% off its closing record, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq off 2.1% and 3.1% their respective closing highs. Meanwhile, the small-cap oriented Russell 2000 index fell 1.8% to finish at just below 1,359, its first close below its 200-day moving average in 14 months.

The latest deadly use of a vehicle to carry out mass violence occurred Thursday in the Spanish city of Barcelona, where a van mowed down pedestrians on a busy avenue popular with tourists. Many things about the event remain unclear, but it appears that a dozen people have died and about 100 are injured.

ISIS has claimed responsibility and 2 suspects are in custody. Increasingly, cars, trucks, and vans have become weapons of terrorists, from a white supremacist’s deadly attack on protesters in Charlottesville, Va. last weekend to several other vehicle attacks in European cities in recent months.

Airline stocks were among the bigger losers Thursday, with American, Alaska Air and Delta among the 10 worst performers in the S&P 500. The big carriers tend to get hit when people worry about terrorism and the possible impact on global travel.

An exchange traded fund that owns leading companies in Spain also fell after the attack. The iShares MSCI Spain ETF (EWP) was down more than 2%, led by drops in Banco Santander and Telefonica.

Stocks were already having a bad day because of lingering concerns over President Trump’s rift with business leaders. Yesterday, Trump’s Manufacturing Council and the Strategy & Policy Council quit. Today comes word the President’s Advisory Council on Infrastructure, which was still being formed, will not move forward.

The moves marked a most unusual repudiation by American business leaders. The bar for a chief executive of a public corporation to repudiate a United States president is extraordinarily high. Corporate leaders aren’t given their power, prestige, responsibility and nine-figure pay packages to use the corner office as their personal soapbox.

Such a public breakup between a president and business leaders left corporate historians at a loss for precedent; apparently this kind of thing has never happened.

So far, there have been no resignations among White House staff or the administration’s cabinet. However, a rumor this morning that Gary Cohn would resign seemed to spook Wall Street.   Gary Cohn is Trump’s chief economic adviser. Cohn is the former president of Goldman Sachs. Cohn is a calming influence in the administration.

He is also a point man on Trump’s push for tax reform, where his deal making skills will come in handy with Congress. Cohn is now under pressure to quit after the president on Tuesday doubled down on blaming both sides in a white-supremacist rally in Virginia that turned violent and trying to claim that there were many fine people on both sides.

Just a reminder, there are videos of the rally in Charlottesville of protesters carrying torches and Nazi flags and chanting “Jews will not replace us” and “blood and soil”. Temple Beth Israel in Charlottesville was patrolled by armed militia with semi-automatic rifles, and worshippers said it was like they were under siege.

There are several reports today that Cohn was deeply offended by Trump’s remarks. Several former colleagues have urged him to resign before his reputation takes an unrecoverable hit. Many of his former clients abandoned the president’s CEO advisory councils earlier this week because of Trump’s remarks.

Cohn is also considered the front-runner to replace Janet Yellen a chair of the Federal Reserve, when her term expires in February. So, Cohn has a decision to make. Does he try to stick it out or does he cut bait now.

If Cohn leaves, there would be a definite lack of economic talent left in the administration. But it’s not just Cohn, the big issue spooking Wall Street is that if Cohn leaves, it could spark a mass exodus.

Nearly all the nation’s top military leaders unequivocally condemned racism in public messages Wednesday. Five of the country’s top uniformed leaders — of the Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps and National Guard — have all sent tweets critical of “racism,” “hatred” and “extremism.”

The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Joe Dunford was traveling and told reporters in Beijing, “I can absolutely and unambiguously tell you there is no place — no place — for racism and bigotry in the U.S. military or in the United States as a whole.”

Trump unloaded on two Republican senators, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Jeff Flake of Arizona. Graham had criticized Trump’s Charlottesville response, prompting Trump to accuse him of telling a “disgusting lie.” Graham said Trump suggested there was a “moral equivalency” between white supremacists and those who protested the rally. Trump has blamed “both sides” for the violence.

Trump called Flake “toxic” and all but endorsed Kelli Ward, who is challenging Flake in a primary. “Great to see that Dr. Kelli Ward is running against Flake,” Trump tweeted. Flake said Wednesday on Twitter, “We can’t claim to be the party of Lincoln if we equivocate in condemning white supremacy.”

It’s possible Trump will further comment when he visits Phoenix on Tuesday for a rally for his 2020 re-election campaign. Although Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton issued a statement that he was disappointed to learn of Trump’s visit so close to the violent events in Charlottesville.

The mayor called on Trump to delay the visit.  The statement said: “If President Trump is coming to Phoenix to announce a pardon for former Sheriff Joe Arpaio, then it will be clear that his true intent is to inflame emotions and further divide our nation.”

The Labor Department reports initial jobless claims in the period running from Aug. 6 to Aug. 12 declined by 12,000 to 232,000.

Philly Fed’s manufacturing index for August came in at 18.9, compared with a reading of 19.5 in the prior period.

The leading economic index rose 0.3% last month after a 0.6% increase in June, suggesting potentially faster growth in the final six months of 2017.

Industrial production rose in July for the second month in a row. Output climbed 0.2% last month, a touch below expectations. Production at utilities surged 1.6% as Americans cranked up the AC to deal with another sweltering summer.

Mining output also rose 0.5% — the fourth straight increase — reflecting in part frackers pulling more oil and natural gas out of the ground. Yet output among manufacturers slipped 0.1%, the third decline in five months. The drop-off largely stemmed from lower production among auto makers whose sales have cooled off.

Auto production sank 3.5%. Production of business equipment and construction output also declined.

Arizona’s unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.1% in July. The national unemployment rate declined from 4.4% in June to 4.3% in July. A year ago, the Arizona seasonally adjusted rate was 5.2% and the U.S. rate was 4.9%.

Arizona lost 20,900 Nonfarm jobs in July. The Private Sector lost 9,400 jobs and government lost 11,500. Arizona Nonfarm employment grew by 1.7% (45,000 jobs) over the year in July.

Walmart reported second-quarter earnings and revenue that topped Wall Street estimates, boosted by an increase in foot traffic and by strong online sales. Shares, however, are trading down by about 2%.

America’s largest brick-and-mortar retailer said US comparable-store sales rose 1.8% versus a year ago, making for the 12th straight quarter with positive results. Walmart said food categories delivered their strongest comparable-store sales performance in five years. Walmart raised its guidance slightly.

Alibaba reported yet another winning set of quarterly financials. Revenue was up 56% on-year hitting $7.4 billion, and operating profit more than doubled over the same period to hit $2.88 billion. While investors will likely be pleased, the Chinese government is not.

The Cyberspace Administration of China sent a warning to Alibaba, its music-streaming subsidiary Xiami, and three other companies. The letter accused Taobao, Alibaba’s e-commerce marketplace, of allowing some of its vendors to sell “tools that break computers’ IT systems,” “illegal controlled substances,” “illegal VPN tools,” and “internet accounts.”

It demanded that Alibaba immediately remove such vendors from its site, and called on it to launch a “self-investigation.” Alibaba is almost as valuable as Amazon and closing the gap fast.

Mylan has finalized a $465 million settlement resolving Justice Department claims it overcharged the government for its EpiPen emergency allergy treatment, which became the center of a firestorm over price increases.

The settlement resolved claims that Mylan avoided higher rebates to state Medicaid programs by misclassifying EpiPen as a generic product, even though it was marketed and priced as a brand-name product. Under the deal, Mylan did not admit wrongdoing. It will reclassify EpiPen and pay the rebate applicable to its new classification as of April 1, 2017.