Morning in Arizona

Morning in Arizona
Rainbows over Canyonlands - Dave Stoker

The Headline Animator

Showing posts with label Irma. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Irma. Show all posts

Monday, September 11, 2017

No Reason Not To

Financial Review

No Reason Not To


DOW + 259 = 22,057
SPX + 26 = 2488
NAS + 72 = 6432
RUT + 15 = 1414
10 Y + .06 = 2.13%
OIL + .02 = 48.09
GOLD – 19.00 = 1328.00

Top Cryptocurrencies

Name Symbol Price USD Market Cap Vol. Total Vol. % Price BTC Chg. % 1D Chg. % 7D
  Bitcoin BTC 4,339.6 $71.17B $1.53B 40.05% 1 +3.28% 3.77%
  Ethereum ETH 311.45 $29.12B $534.46M 14.03% 0.0710035 +4.79% 7.09%
  Bitcoin Cash BCH 573.89 $9.17B $225.31M 5.91% 0.127718 +3.42% 10.61%
  Ripple XRP 0.22044 $8.37B $111.56M 2.93% 0.00005035 +3.08% 8.32%
  Litecoin LTC 71.350 $3.67B $350.88M 9.21% 0.0159996 +4.48% 8.86%
  Dash DASH 328.60 $2.46B $16.92M 0.44% 0.0751645 +3.25% 8.89%
  NEM XEM 0.26571 $2.34B $3.70M 0.10% 0.00006013 +2.18% -2.35%
  Monero XMR 115.67 $1.74B $26.69M 0.70% 0.026558 +2.91% 11.34%
  IOTA MIOTA 0.62399 $1.73B $41.99M 1.10% 0.00014365 +10.80% 14.52%
  Ethereum Classic ETC 15.9316 $1.46B $123.91M 3.25% 0.0035291 +4.86% -0.42%

The S&P 500 climbed to a record high close. North Korea did not test nuclear weapons over the weekend. Hurricane Irma did not destroy Florida. So, there is that.

Irma caused severe flooding in many Florida cities and left more than 6 million homes and businesses without power, but damage appeared to be less than expected. Shares of U.S. and European insurers jumped.

Shares of Florida insurers Heritage Insurance Holdings, HCI Group and Universal Insurance Holdings all rose about 15 percent, while property and casualty insurer United Insurance Holdings gained 10 percent. Shares of larger insurers Travelers and Chubb rose about 3 percent.

Shares of reinsurers Swiss Re and Scor rose more than 3 percent. Aspen Insurance Holdings shares rose 9.8 percent while Everest Re and XL Group were up more than 5 percent. Preliminary industry losses were estimated at $15 billion to $50 billion in the United States, and $5 billion to $15 billion in the Caribbean. Irma was bad but not as bad as first feared.

Irma roiled the markets for orange juice and cotton. Prices rose steeply last week on concern crops in Florida, the nation’s biggest citrus grower, would be destroyed while cotton areas in Georgia and South Carolina faced strong winds and flooding.

With the damage being assessed, orange juice dropped as much as 5.8 percent today after reaching a four-month high last week. Cotton dropped by the exchange limit of 3 cents. Irma may have damaged 10 percent to 20 percent of Florida’s orange crop. The storm’s swerve toward the state’s west coast was enough to save the crop from “potentially catastrophic” damage.

There’s a modern question that emerges when a massive storm makes its way towards a highly populated area: Is this the right moment to talk about climate change? Let’s settle that debate with a simple answer: Yes. It’s the right time to discuss climate change and how we’re going to adapt to it because we’re witnessing, firsthand, what could be the new normal.

And because, for the most part, we completely ignore the threats posed by climate change when there isn’t a big storm approaching. And the talk should include not just how to stop climate change – because we may be too late, but we can certainly adapt. Look at the destruction in Barbuda compared to Naples Florida – the difference – building codes.

And just a quick thought about the non-stop hurricane coverage – is it smart to have reporters standing out in hurricane force winds telling us they are standing in hurricane force winds? Do we really need that? The tradition of television crews standing in the middle of a dangerous storm goes back decades, reflecting the hunger to be on the scene for a nationally significant event.

But the news value of dangerous stand-ups — in which a correspondent is seen in the field talking to the camera — is increasingly being questioned. Even with all the photos of flooding and damage, many of the most indelible images from Harvey and Irma will be those of people helping people.

Now that Q2 earnings season has wound down, markets are increasingly more susceptible to forces that tend to be less directly connected to corporate results and guidance. And for now, the market is playing a game of “risk-on” and risk-off”.

A broader perspective shows a weak dollar aiding an already strong economy, and the Federal Reserve continuing to juice the works with low rates, even as they plan to slowly unwind their balance sheet.

And since Irma did not flatten Florida, the Fed may feel inclined to raise rates before the end of the year, but just sticking to the slow, incremental increases – meaning we are still in historically low interest rate environment.

Notwithstanding all the discussion of balance sheet reduction and tapering, the developed market central banks in aggregate are still very much in expansionary mode, with the G4 balance sheets still growing by more than $1 trillion per year on an annualized pace.

The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was 0.56 percent higher at 91.8. The index had hit a more than 2-1/2-year low on Friday. A monthly survey of 73 economists conducted by Bloomberg News from Sept. 1 to Sept. 7 found that the median third-quarter growth estimate rose to 2.6 percent from 2.5 percent in the prior poll.

So, strong earnings, weak dollar offering an edge to US businesses, ultra-low rates; toss in stable and low energy prices – and there really is no reason why the stock market should not be strong. It’s been 14 months since the S&P 500 has seen a 5% sell-off and 19 months since a full-blown 10% correction.

Your next phone will probably cost about $1,000. It doesn’t matter whether you go Apple or Android. Tomorrow, Apple will introduce its latest top-of-the-line iPhone, and even the cheapest model is expected to cost about $1,000. A few days later, Samsung’s Galaxy Note 8 goes on sale for a comparable amount.

The iPhone is expected to be made from glass and stainless steel, while the Note has an exceptionally large, bright screen with a metal-and-glass case. New features for the iPhone will include upgraded cameras and the ability to unlock your phone with a 3D scan of your face. All that stuff has pushed up prices. Look for trade-in deals on old phones. You could also go the installment payment route.

And look for giveaways from the carriers. Free Netflix from T-Mobile. Verizon is offering free accessories and discounted tablets to customers who choose monthly payment plans and has introduced a reward program that offers such gifts as Starbucks cards or Apple Music discounts to customers who pay their bills on time.

Sprint offers a buy-one-get-one-free plan to people on monthly leasing plans who want last year’s iPhone. AT&T is matching that deal if customers also sign up for DirecTV. Bottom line – The phone makers and carriers are going to greater lengths to disguise the rising costs of their phones, which are about to cross a big psychological threshold.

The same day Amazon completed its acquisition of Whole Foods, it marked down items by as much as 43 percent. Those deep price cuts did more than bring a surge of publicity to the chain: It boosted customer traffic by 25 percent. The location data from Foursquare, culled from shoppers’ mobile devices, was compared with the same period a week earlier.

More than two dozen lawsuits have been filed in the United States against Equifax after the credit reporting company said thieves may have stolen personal information for 143 million Americans in one of the largest hackings ever. Don’t brush this data breach off.  We all have credit information maintained by Equifax. Take this seriously.

You should probably assume your data at Equifax has been compromised. So, there are some things you should do. Immediately obtain a credit report from one of the three credit bureaus (Trans Union, Experian, Equifax) and review it carefully to see if you have already fallen victim to abuse or ID theft. Resolve to obtain another credit report from a different bureau in 2 months and again in January 2018 (from the third bureau).

Consider accept any offer from Equifax to provide a year or two of credit monitoring but do not pay Equifax for costlier services if they try to up-sell you. Also, be aware that if you accept the free credit monitoring, you may not be able to sue Equifax.

Place alerts on your credit card accounts so that you are getting routine email updates about credit card balances and transactions. Read the updates as they come in and follow up if something doesn’t seem quite right. And you can go to the FTC website – consumer.ftc.gov to freeze your credit record and put an alert on your credit record.

Do an initial fraud alert with one of the other agencies which will be good for 90 days and they will alert the other two. If someone is trying to open a credit line in your name, the company opening the line must contact you before opening it.

If you aren’t needing credit for a while you may consider adding freezes to all three agencies. Add security passwords and three factor authentication to all your credit cards, bank accounts, and broker accounts. And file your taxes early, especially if you expect a refund.

Also send a nastygram to Equifax. There’s no excuse for this data breach. NO EXCUSE. We’ve entrusted our personal information to these kinds of private concerns, and if they abuse that trust by getting hacked, then they are to blame. And for investors in Equifax, sorry. Equifax lost about 7% today, wiping out about $3.5 billion in market cap.

China vowed to end fossil-fuel car sales. The world’s largest auto market is working on a timetable to end sales of vehicles powered by gasoline and diesel. The country’s industry ministry didn’t set a deadline for a complete changeover, but said it plans to strictly enforce rules that require hybrids to make up at least 8% of automakers’ output next year, and at least 12% by 2020. The UK and France have pledged to be fully electric by 2040.

The move leaves the US as the last major stronghold for cars powered by gasoline and other fossil fuels. China’s auto market is the largest in the world, with more than 23 million cars sold in 2016, greater than the 17 million sold last year in the US.

China already dominates the electric vehicle (EV) market, making more than 40% of EVs worldwide. China’s plan to go fully electric will upend the transportation and petroleum industries worldwide.

Thursday, September 07, 2017

One-Two Punch

Financial Review

One-Two Punch


DOW – 22 = 21,784
SPX – 0.44 = 2465
NAS + 4 = 6397
RUT – 3 = 1398
10 Y – .05 = 2.06%
OIL – .07 = 49.09
GOLD + 15.10 = 1349.60

Top Cryptocurrencies

Name Symbol Price USD Market Cap Vol. Total Vol. % Price BTC Chg. % 1D Chg. % 7D
  Bitcoin BTC 4,604.6 $76.07B $1.76B 31.71% 1 -0.20% -2.52%
  Ethereum ETH 331.97 $30.95B $641.90M 11.54% 0.0708804 -0.74% -15.14%
  Bitcoin Cash BCH 660.01 $10.69B $1.02B 18.42% 0.139625 -0.89% 9.42%
  Ripple XRP 0.22644 $8.56B $89.89M 1.62% 0.00004833 -0.03% -10.85%
  Litecoin LTC 80.660 $4.15B $448.41M 8.06% 0.0170024 +0.54% 8.40%
  NEM XEM 0.28998 $2.63B $4.16M 0.07% 0.00006329 -0.15% -11.52%
  Dash DASH 343.55 $2.59B $22.70M 0.41% 0.0742512 -1.03% -9.55%
  Monero XMR 122.59 $1.83B $62.20M 1.12% 0.026256 +0.09% -12.89%
  IOTA MIOTA 0.62553 $1.74B $27.26M 0.49% 0.00013528 -3.45% -27.00%
  Ethereum Classic ETC 18.3265 $1.69B $150.91M 2.71% 0.00384088 -0.66% 8.22%

Hurricane Irma has been ripping up the Caribbean. With Category 5 winds of around 175 mph, the storm lashed several small islands in the northeast Caribbean, including Barbuda, St. Martin and the British Virgin Islands, tearing down trees, flattening homes and causing widespread damage.

The eye of the hurricane did not directly hit Puerto Rico, passing north early this morning, but doing serious damage and knocking out power for about two-thirds of the island. Because of budget problems, the power may be out for months in some areas.

Trump approved emergency declarations for Florida, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, mobilizing federal disaster relief efforts. Irma’s eye was forecast to pass over the Turks and Caicos Islands, a British territory, and the Bahamas before moving towards Cuba’s keys. One of the big concerns, in addition to the wind, is a storm surge that could be 20 feet high.

The exact path is uncertain but Miami is a likely target. There is a massive evacuation effort underway in Florida. Irma will likely hit Florida as a very powerful Category 4 storm on Sunday morning, marking the first time the mainland has been hit by two Category 4 hurricanes in the same season – and this is back-to-back with Harvey.

And something else – Hurricane Jose is gaining strength out in the Atlantic, while Hurricane Katia has formed over the southwest Gulf of Mexico.

The Senate today overwhelmingly backed a $15.3 billion aid package for victims of Harvey, nearly doubling Trump’s emergency request. The Senate added a temporary extension of the federal flood insurance program, which otherwise would have expired at the end of the month. The 80-17 vote sends the massive package to the House for a Friday vote.

The must-do legislation would provide money to government agencies through Dec. 8, eliminating the threat of a government shutdown when the new fiscal year starts next month. The aid money comes as Harvey recovery efforts are draining federal disaster aid coffers.

This is just a down payment. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott estimated that Texas will ultimately need between $150 billion and $180 billion in federal aid to rebuild in the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey.

We don’t yet know the costs of Hurricane Irma.

Harvey is likely to cost the insurance industry as much as $10 billion-$15 billion. European reinsurers like Swiss Re and Munich Re have the most exposure to Harvey-hit areas. One bit of good news for insurers: the firms are sitting on enough excess capital that the hurricane impact is likely to dent their earnings, not their balance sheets, even if the price tag hits $20 billion.

Insurers also rely on catastrophe bonds which are essentially securities designed to protect insurers from payouts for natural disasters by passing on the risk to investors. The catastrophe bond market was largely spared from Hurricane Harvey. That’s because most of the policies backing the bonds aren’t tied to flooding. Hurricane Irma won’t be so forgiving. Barclays estimates Irma will inflict as much as $130 billion on insurers in a worst-case scenario.

A California geophysicist says the sheer weight of the torrential rains brought by Harvey has caused Houston to sink by 2 centimeters. Chris Milliner, a postdoctoral fellow at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory at the California Institute of Technology, says water weighs about a ton per cubic meter and the flooding was so widespread that it “flexed Earth’s crust.”

The Energy Information Administration said weekly crude stocks increased 4.6 million barrels last week, topping analysts’ forecast for a 4.0-million-barrel build. The impact of Hurricane Harvey is clearly visible in the report. The data scrambles the recent trend of declining crude inventories and further rises are likely in the weeks ahead. As refineries try to ramp back up production the big drop in refinery utilization “almost assures” crude stockpiles will continue to rise in coming weeks.

Make no mistake, natural disasters have a huge impact on financial markets. We know the oil and petrochemical industry was slammed in the Houston area, and cruise lines (which use Miami as a hub) are disrupted. Even if you aren’t planning a cruise, Irma will likely affect your grocery bill.

Florida is the biggest producer of oranges in the country, but it’s also a key producer of tomatoes, grapefruits, watermelons and sugar cane; broccoli, potatoes, beans—and even timber—are also produced in the state.

Cotton markets are also nervous because Harvey did an as yet uncalculated amount of damage in Texas, which is the country’s top grower of cotton. And if Irma affects Georgia, the country’s number three producer of cotton, the U.S. cotton industry will be dealt a serious blow.

The aftermath of hurricanes, or any natural disaster are difficult to predict. The after-effects ripple out through the economy in a variety of ways. One sector that should benefit from the destruction of Hurricane Harvey – automakers. The storm flooded 1 million vehicles and the rush is on in states near and far to acquire and ship new ones into the city.

While Harvey dragged on auto sales in August, the stocks of carmakers have rallied on expectations that post-storm replacement demand could boost deliveries this fall and into early 2018.

Comcast shares dropped about 6% today. Comcast expects to lose up to 150,000 video subscribers in the third quarter due to competition and the impact of recent hurricanes.

Walt Disney’s chief executive, Bob Iger, said the company’s earnings per share for the current fiscal year ending Oct. 1 will be roughly in line with a year ago, when it earned $5.72 per share. Analysts had been expecting the company to earn $5.88 this year. Disney shares were down about 5%.

The European Central Bank wrapped up its policy meeting today, reaffirming its ultra-easy stance. The bank kept its growth and inflation outlooks unchanged. Then ECB head Mario Draghi announced the central bank was looking at how to wind down its 60 billion-euro-a-month buying program. No timeline yet.

The Euro surged. European stocks saw their day’s gains halved. The Euro Index is already up about 9% since the start of the year. Against the dollar, the euro has surged to as high as $1.20 in recent days from $1.03 in early January – about a 15% gain.

The productivity of American firms and workers rose somewhat faster in the second quarter than originally estimated, though the long-term trend remained weak. The government said productivity increased at a 1.5% annual pace in the spring, up from an initial 0.9% estimate.

Productivity rises when workers supply more goods and services in the same amount of time. The upward revision stemmed entirely from workers producing more goods and services. Output was revised up to show a 4% increase instead of 3.4%.

Amazon is headquartered in Seattle, where it is a major employer, on course to have 10 million square feet of office space, more than 15 percent of the city’s inventory. Now, the company is looking to build a second headquarter to rival the Seattle headquarters, at a cost of over $5 billion over the next 15 years.

Amazon’s Seattle office houses over 40,000, and many of the jobs for Amazon’s second home will be new hires. Look for municipalities to promise the sky and the stars to lure Amazon. It does not look like Phoenix would make the short list of sites for HQ2.

Late yesterday, Facebook said it had found evidence that fake accounts “likely operated out of Russia” purchased thousands of ads during the US presidential election designed to amplify divisive political messages. The announcement represents a sharp turnaround from the company’s previous remarks on its role in the spread of fake news during the election.

Facebook said the ads were part of elaborate “information operations” in which “organized actors,” including governments, used social media to deceive the public and distort political sentiment. Facebook conducted an examination of ads purchased over the past two years in response to mounting concern over “Russian interference in the electoral process” and Facebook’s role in spreading misinformation leading up to the election.

The company discovered roughly $100,000 in ad buys between June 2015 and May 2017 “associated with roughly 3,000 ads” and connected to nearly 500 affiliated fake accounts. The “vast majority” of ads related to the fake Russian accounts didn’t target a political candidate and instead focused on “amplifying divisive social and political messages across the ideological spectrum.” So, internet advertising really does work.

Equifax, which supplies credit information and other information services, said a cybersecurity incident could have potentially affected 143 million consumers in the US. Equifax said it discovered the breach on July 29.

Leaked data includes names, birth dates, social security numbers, addresses and potentially drivers' licenses. 209,000 U.S. credit card numbers were also obtained, in addition to “certain dispute documents with personal identifying information for approximately 182,000 U.S. consumers.” Equifax said it is now alerting customers whose information was included in the breach via mail, and is working with state and federal authorities.

Britain’s most iconoclastic sports car brand is finally caving to peer pressure. Jaguar Land Rover announced today that starting in 2020, all of its new vehicles will have a fully electric or hybrid option. In July, Volvo committed to electrifying all of its car by 2019; in August, Aston Martin said it will go completely hybrid by 2025.

Promptly following JLR’s announcement today, BMW promised to create 12 all-electric and 13 hybrid models by 2025. Volkswagen has announced plans to launch 30 all electric models by 2025.

So, the race to electric cars is on, and American carmakers are in the back of the pack.

Tuesday, September 05, 2017

Buckle Up

Financial Review

Buckle Up


DOW – 234 = 21,753
SPX – 18 = 2457
NAS – 59 = 6375
RUT – 13 = 1399
10 Y – .09 = 2.07%
OIL + 1.33 = 48.62
GOLD + 5.60 = 1340.40

Top Cryptocurrencies


Name Symbol Market Cap Vol. Total Vol. % Price USD Price BTC Chg. % 1D Chg. % 7D
Bitcoin BTC $74.02B $2.53B 34.53% $4,473.09 1 9.96% -2.61%
Ethereum ETH $30.80B $1.45B 19.87% $326.11 0.0723002 17.46% -13.15%
Bitcoin Cash BCH $9.22B $301.69M 4.12% $556.93 0.123474 16.29% 1.71%
Ripple XRP $8.50B $224.64M 3.07% $0.22 0.00004916 13.04% 0.95%
Litecoin LTC $3.92B $1.02B 13.97% $74.33 0.0164803 20.61% 18.46%
NEM XEM $2.67B $7.12M 0.10% $0.30 0.00006579 15.05% 3.75%
Dash DASH $2.53B $50.39M 0.69% $335.99 0.0744907 16.05% -7.81%
Monero XMR $1.79B $107.32M 1.47% $119.10 0.0264057 20.18% -8.73%
IOTA MIOTA $1.75B $38.18M 0.52% $0.63 0.00013958 23.10% -23.10%
Ethereum Classic ETC $1.69B $241.48M 3.30% $17.78 0.00394118 19.44% 12.06%

Well, this is a rough start to a new month. It will be a wild September on Capitol Hill as Congress faces a massive number of legislative deadlines and initiative launches.

There’s must-pass legislation — like raising the debt ceiling and a bill to fund the government — and some long-gestating projects like the Republican plan to overhaul the tax code and a bipartisan effort to stabilize the individual health-insurance exchanges.

Throw in unexpected issues like funding for the Hurricane Harvey recovery effort, plus re-writing immigration policy with DACA rescinded, plus trying to avoid nuclear winter with North Korea and you might want to keep your seat belt buckled for the remainder of September.

A week after Hurricane Harvey made landfall, devastating Texas with torrential flooding, meteorologists are now intently focused on Hurricane Irma’s dangerous growth and projected path. The storm formed off the coast of western Africa last week and almost immediately started barreling toward the Caribbean Sea.

It has now metastasized into a Category 5 hurricane with winds up to 185 mph and possible storm surge of 11 feet. It is expected to hit or possibly just graze the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tomorrow. It might hit southern Florida by Sunday, or it might skirt to the south of mainland Florida and move into the Gulf of Mexico.

Insurance stocks were the biggest decliners in the S&P 500 Index, with Barclays estimating insured losses in a worst-case scenario at $130 billion. Shares in Carnival, Royal Caribbean Cruises and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings tumbled as Irma aimed at the South Florida hub for cruise-line operators. Orange juice futures for November jumped over 6% today. Category 5 is the top of the scale.

As of this morning, FEMA’s Disaster Relief Fund, which pays for the agency’s disaster response and recovery activity, had just $1 billion on hand. And of that, just $541 million was “immediately available” for response and recovery efforts related to Hurricane Harvey.

Republicans are planning to attach a provision to raise the debt ceiling to their initial Hurricane Harvey relief package, a move that could limit resistance to the effort to increase caps on government borrowing.

The $7.85 billion aid package to help re-fill FEMA’s coffers is scheduled to be taken up by the House tomorrow and will likely have a debt ceiling increase added when it makes it to the Senate. If the combined bill passes the Senate, it would then be sent back to the House for consideration.

The move is favored by the Republican leadership as a way to gain broader support for the debt ceiling increase, which must be raised by the end of the month to avoid an economic disaster. A bigger question is whether other stuff will be added to the debt ceiling increase. The more that is tacked on, the greater the chance of failure.

By the end of September, Congress must pass a bill to keep the government funded, or it risks a shutdown of nonessential functions. It must also raise the debt ceiling by early October to prevent breaching it and to avoid a default.

The bond market continues to reflect fears that the US government may soon run out of funding. A $20 billion auction on Tuesday for Treasury bills that expire in four weeks — just after the deadline for a bill to fund the government — drew the highest yield since the 2008 financial crisis.

This indicates that bond traders want a premium in return for expecting the government to repay them just as it may be running out of funding. For some perspective, the high yield, at 1.30%, was higher than when the government shut down in 2013.

Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals or DACA, will end in 6 months. Attorney General Jeff Sessions announced the end of the program this morning, leaving almost 900,000 Dreamers in legal limbo.

No new DACA applications will be accepted after Tuesday. People already enrolled in DACA will continue to be protected until their permits expire, and those whose permits expire before March 5, 2018 can apply to renew for as long as two years.

Renewal applications must be received by October 5 of this year. People whose permits expire after March 5 cannot renew them. Sessions gave no details on how the program would be wound down, but a press release from the Department of Homeland Security — first reported by the news website Axios — said the program would be phased out over six months.

DHS did not rule out that anyone with expired DACA would then be subject to deportation. There will be no formal guidance that former DACA recipients are not eligible for deportation, and ICE officers in the field who encounter them will be making a case-by-case judgment as to whether to arrest that individual and process them for deportation.

The president’s statement makes it sound like Dreamers are often violent members of society who, even when they’re not committing crimes, are busy stealing native-born Americans’ jobs and draining scarce government resources.

The facts, however, paint a different picture.  According to an analysis by the Cato Institute, the typical Dreamer is young and employed at a job that earns about $17 per hour, 95% are either employed or in school, and they pay taxes but they are not eligible for federal welfare.

More than 70 percent of them are pursuing (or have attained) a bachelor’s degree. Dreamers over the age of 25 are more than twice as likely to start a new business than the national average. Cato estimates that ending DACA could cost nearly $280 billion in lost tax revenue over the next decade.

Business leaders and lawmakers from both parties have warned the president that ending the program would have economic and social consequences. Some Republicans, including House Speaker Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, said while they don’t agree with the executive action that began the policy five years ago, it should be up to Congress to come up with a more permanent solution.

The delayed repeal effectively kicks the issue to Congress for a resolution. There are a few legislative possibilities, including two bills introduced by Republican senators. The Dream Act of 2017 would codify parts of the DACA program, and the Bridge Act would extend those same protections for three years to give lawmakers more time to work out a more permanent solution.

So, now the question is whether Congress can get the job done. They still must deal with legislation to fund the government, raise the nation’s borrowing authority and increase disaster relief for victims of Hurricane Harvey and possibly Irma.

Now add in immigration reform – and if they try to tack DACA onto spending or debt ceiling legislation, or if they try to add building the wall onto immigration reform, it will be like throwing a monkey wrench in the sprocket.

What about tax reform legislation? Yea, not this month.

And remember, over the weekend North Korea exploded a test nuclear bomb. South Korea’s Asia Business Daily reported that North Korea had moved what looked like an intercontinental ballistic missile toward its west coast, possibly in preparation for a launch.

There are no good options for dealing with North Korea. The administration had threatened fire and fury, but no fire or fury – just a speech to by Nickie Haley before the UN. The administration wants China to impose economic muscle on North Korea, even threatening to retaliate against Chinese steel dumping and intellectual-property infringements, and vowing an implausible trade war with the U.S.’s largest trading partner.

Even less rationally, the administration has dropped hints it’s about to scrap a free-trade agreement with ally South Korea. The two main proposals put forward so far are tougher international sanctions, an idea promoted by the U.S., and the so-called “freeze for freeze,” favored by China, in which the U.S. freezes military exercises with South Korea in exchange for the North freezing its missile and nuclear tests.

Meanwhile, there are ongoing talks to renegotiate Nafta, so Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto was in China to pursue his country’s Plan B. Rumblings of a free-trade deal between the two nations have grown since President Trump took office this year, but they’ve mostly been seen as political posturing.

But with Trump threatening regularly to dump the deal—even taking time last Sunday, during Hurricane Harvey, to say he “may have to terminate” NAFTA—the possibility of Mexico opening up to China seems ever more real. Trump’s stated goal to end NAFTA is to raise tariffs and incentivize U.S. companies to stop outsourcing jobs.

Whether that will work is a separate matter, but what he has done is to push Mexico, which counts the U.S. as its largest trading partner by far, into pursuing other options.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 234 points, with the bulk of that downturn driven by declines in shares of Goldman Sachs and United Technologies. United Tech’s stock lost about 5.7%, after the industrial conglomerate said it had reached a deal to buy airplane-parts maker Rockwell Collins for $23 billion. The acquisition would be the largest in aerospace history.

The Commerce Department reports factory goods orders tumbled 3.3 percent with a slump in demand for transportation equipment. That was the biggest drop since August 2014 and followed a 3.2 percent surge in June.

Two weeks ago, Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell said low inflation allowed the Fed to be patient on a hike. Today, Fed Governor Lael Brainard said the U.S. central bank should go so far as to make clear it is comfortable pushing prices modestly above the Fed’s 2 percent target. The Fed’s preferred gauge stands at 1.4 percent.