Morning in Arizona

Morning in Arizona
Rainbows over Canyonlands - Dave Stoker

The Headline Animator

Showing posts with label bond market. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bond market. Show all posts

Wednesday, June 28, 2017

Bears Dominate on Tuesday

Bears Dominate on Tuesday

4:25 PM ET, 06/27/2017 - Briefing.com
[BRIEFING.COM] Wall Street took it to the chin on Tuesday as equities sold off into the closing bell, leaving the major averages at their worst marks of the day. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (-1.6%) was hit the hardest as technology and biotechnology stocks weighed. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and the Dow settled with losses of 0.8% and 0.5%, respectively.
There was a notable jump in long-term rates on Tuesday as sovereign bond markets came under selling pressure in the wake of a morning remark from ECB President Mario Draghi that the threat of deflation is gone. The yield on the 10-yr Treasury note jumped six basis points to 2.20%, which contributed partly to the selling activity in richly-valued technology stocks and the underperformance of rate-sensitive areas like the S&P 500 utilities sector (-1.3%).
However, the heavily-weighted financial sector (+0.5%) benefited from the activity in the Treasury market as it resulted in a steepening of the yield curve, which is a positive for the financial industry's bottom line. The win marks the second in a row for the financial group and comes ahead of tomorrow's capital return plans, which will be released after the close.
Like financials, the energy sector (-0.2%) finished ahead of the broader market as crude oil cruised to its fourth-consecutive advance. Underpinned by a weaker dollar, the energy component jumped 2.0% to $44.25/bbl. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (96.07, -1.04) tumbled 1.1% to a fresh nine-month low in reaction to the aforementioned remark from Mr. Draghi.
However, in the end, the bulls were just no match for the bears on Tuesday as ten of the eleven sectors finished in the red. The top-weighted technology group (-1.7%) finished at the very bottom of the leaderboard amid broad weakness. Alphabet (GOOGL 948.09, -24.00) was one of the sector's weakest components, dropping 2.5%, after European antitrust regulators hit the company with a $2.7 billion fine for skewing search results in favor of its own shopping site. Chipmakers also displayed notable weakness, sending the PHLX Semiconductor Index lower by 2.7%.
The lightly-weighted telecom services space (-1.4%) finished just a tick ahead of the technology group following news that Sprint (S 8.18, +0.17) has entered into exclusive talks with Charter Communications (CHTR 329.87, -2.78) and Comcast (CMCSA 39.25, -0.34) regarding a wireless deal. Wireless heavyweights Verizon (VZ 44.84, -0.91) and AT&T (T 37.70, -0.45) declined 2.0% and 1.2%, respectively, following the news.
Biotechnology stocks also exhibited notable weakness, leaving the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 310.89, -8.65) lower by 2.7%, as investors took some money off the table following last week's biotech rally. However, the health care sector (-0.9%) held up relatively well, settling just a tick below the benchmark index.
Outside of real estate (-0.4%), the remaining laggards--consumer discretionary (-0.7%), industrials (-0.8%), materials (-0.7%), and consumer staples (-0.9%)--finished roughly in line with the broader market.
Also of note, the Senate decided to push back a vote on the Republican healthcare bill until after Congress returns from the July Fourth recess, as most expected. 
Reviewing Tuesday's economic data, which included the June Consumer Confidence Index and the April Case-Shiller 20-city Index:
The consumer confidence reading for June rose to 118.9 from the prior month's revised reading of 117.6 (from 117.9). The Briefing.com consensus expected the survey to hit 116.7.The key takeaway from the report is that consumer expectations for the short-term have been reined in some, but are still upbeat overall.The April Case-Shiller 20-city Index hit 5.7% (Briefing.com consensus 5.9%) to follow last month's unrevised 5.9% increase.
On Wednesday, investors will receive the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index and May Pending Home Sales (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%). The two reports will be released at 7:00 ET and 10:00 ET, respectively. 
Nasdaq Composite +14.2% YTDS&P 500 +8.1% YTDDow Jones Industrial Average +7.8% YTDRussell 2000 +3.4% YTD

Thursday, March 02, 2017

And Pause

Financial Review

And Pause


DOW – 112 = 21,002
SPX – 14 = 2381
NAS – 42 = 5861
RUT – 17 = 1395
10 Y + .03 = 2.49%
OIL – 1.21 = 52.62
GOLD – 15.00 = 1235.00

Yesterday, the Dow advanced about 300 points to close above 21,000 for the first time, just 24 trading sessions after it first hit 20,000. That matches the fastest-ever move between thousand-point milestones, which last happened in 1999 and took the index above 11,000.

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell to near a 44-year-low last week. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 19,000 to a seasonally adjusted 223,000 for the week ended Feb. 25, the lowest level since March 1973.

It was the 104th straight week that claims remained below 300,000, a threshold associated with a healthy labor market. That is the longest stretch since 1970.

The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, a collection of anecdotes about the economy gathered before the central bank makes interest-rate decisions, said “businesses were generally optimistic about the near term but to a somewhat lesser degree than in the prior report.” Overall, the US economy continues to meander along, with all districts reporting “modest to moderate” growth.

Federal Reserve Gov. Lael Brainard has been among the most consistent doves at the Fed, but now, “near-term risks” to the U.S. from abroad appear to have diminished. Brainard the US economy appears to be in transition to a more stable growth path and gradual interest-rate hikes are likely to be appropriate “soon.”

Fed Gov. Jerome Powell became the latest Fed official to hint that a hike is imminent when he said Wednesday that the case for raising interest rates in March “has come together.” Fed Chair Janet Yellen is set to speak on the economic outlook in Chicago on Friday in her last speech before the Fed’s March 14-15 meeting.

Emerging-market borrowers are selling bonds at an unprecedented pace before the Federal Reserve raises interest rates. Emerging-market issuance in dollars and euros this year has already exceeded $100 billion. That’s the fastest pace ever and almost 20 percent more than the previous record for the period in 2014. With yields still favorable to borrowers, they may accelerate plans to refinance maturing debt and lock in current yields.

The yield on the two-year US Treasury note rose 3 basis points to 1.32% in recent trade, its highest end-of-day level since June 10, 2009. Bond yields rise as prices fall. The yield also notched its largest four-day increase since Feb. 8, 2011. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has popped about 16 basis points in the past week.

The dollar advanced. Oil closed at the lowest level in more than three weeks. US stockpiles expanded to 520 million barrels, the most in weekly government data going back to 1982, even as Saudi Arabia continued to lead OPEC’s efforts to cut production to end the glut.

Snapchat parent Snap Inc raised $3.4 billion in its IPO last night, valuing the company at $24 billion, more than double the size of Twitter and the richest valuation in a U.S. tech IPO since Facebook five years ago.

The shares priced at $17 each, above the expected range of $14-16. And the IPO was oversubscribed by more than tenfold; and when shares started trading, there was a pop to $25, and shares closed at $24.47.

Snapchat’s founder and early investors cashed out over $1 billion today. This for a company which reported revenues of $404 million with losses of $515 million in 2016. And shareholders don’t have voting rights. Go figure.

About 32 million Yahoo user accounts were accessed by intruders in the last two years using forged cookies. The company said some of the latest intrusions can be connected to the “same state-sponsored actor believed to be responsible for the 2014 breach,” in which at least 500 million accounts were affected.

Yahoo also said in December that data from more than 1 billion user accounts was compromised in August 2013. Yahoo’s board of directors have decided to forgo CEO Marissa Mayer’s 2016 bonus following the results of an internal investigation of how the company’s massive hacks were handled.

Yesterday, Amazon’s cloud service S3 went down for a few hours. Today, Amazon blamed the outage on human error and the movie LaLa Land.

Banks globally have paid $321 billion in fines since 2008 for an abundance of regulatory failings from money laundering to market manipulation and terrorist financing, per data compiled by Boston Consulting Group. That tally is set to increase in the coming years as European and Asian regulators catch up with their US peers, who have levied most charges to date.

The Labor Department has proposed delaying a rule that would require retirement advisers to act in the best interest of their clients. The “fiduciary rule” was set to go into effect on April 10 and would have prohibited retirement advisers from accepting incentives for promoting certain funds over others.

The Labor Department announced a proposed 60-day extension for the rule to go into effect on June 9. During that time, the department said it will collect applicable information on the possible effects of rule, including public comments.

As credit card companies compete for customers by offering increasingly better rewards and perks, American Express is giving its Platinum card a facelift and a benefits overhaul. The newly-enhanced card will come with Uber credits, increased travel rewards and more access to special events. But the new benefits don’t come cheap. The card carries a $550 annual fee, an increase from $450, and currently offers no sign-up bonus.

Federal law enforcement officials searched three facilities of heavy machinery manufacturer Caterpillar in Illinois. It was not immediately clear why federal agents raided the three locations, but Caterpillar has been fighting an Internal Revenue Service demand that the company pay $2 billion in taxes and penalties for profits assigned to a Swiss parts distribution subsidiary, Caterpillar SARL, or CSARL, per filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

That subsidiary was also the subject of a 2014 Senate committee report that charged Caterpillar “shifted billions of dollars in profits away from the United States.” Caterpillar also disclosed in its report that it had received grand jury subpoenas from the U.S. District Court for the Central District of Illinois seeking documents and information related to the movement of cash among U.S. and non-U.S. subsidiaries, and the purchase and resale of replacement parts.

Boeing is cutting its Seattle-area workforce by at least 1,800 jobs this year as the company streamlines operations. Boeing approved voluntary layoffs for 1,500 mechanics. Another 305 engineers and technical workers are leaving voluntarily.

Anheuser-Busch InBev  reported worse-than-expected quarterly results. The company said that challenges in Brazil hurt its overall performance.

Shake Shack same-store sales whiffThe burger chain announced adjusted earnings of $0.09 a share, matching estimates, but said same-shack sales, or sales in stores open at least two years, rose 1.6%, well shy of the 2.6% estimated gain.

Barnes & Noble reported third-quarter profit that missed expectations. Same-store sales fell 8.3%, largely due to lower traffic and a decline in coloring books, artist supplies and the best-selling Adele album that was released in 2015. The company now expects full-year 2017 same-store sales to decline about 7%.

Broadcom came in 15 cents above estimates with adjusted quarterly earnings of $3.63 per share, while the chip maker’s revenue was slightly above estimates. The company, which is a major supplier for Apple, said it expects healthy demand for its products to continue.

After the closing bell, Costco reported fiscal second-quarter per-share earnings and sales below expectations and said it plans to raise membership fees in June by $5.

The creepiest thing of the day, and there were multiple candidates – goes to Spiral Toys; a company that sells internet-connected teddy bears that allow kids and their far-away parents to exchange heartfelt messages left more than 800,000 customer credentials, as well as two million message recordings, totally exposed online for anyone to see and listen.

Since Christmas day of last year and at least until the first week of January, Spiral Toys left customer data of its CloudPets brand on a database that wasn’t behind a firewall or password-protected. The exposed data included more than 800,000 emails and passwords.

As we’ve seen time and time again in the last couple of years, so-called “smart” devices connected to the internet—what is popularly known as the Internet of Things or IoT—are often left insecure or are easily hack-able, and often leak sensitive data. There will be a time when IoT developers and manufacturers learn the lesson and make secure by default devices, but that time hasn’t come yet.

So, if you are a parent who doesn’t want your loving messages with your kids leaked online, you might want to buy a good old fashioned teddy bear that doesn’t connect to a remote, insecure server.

Tomorrow is the first Friday in March, but it is not a Jobs Report Friday. The jobs report is a monthly ritual for anyone following markets or the US economy, as it contains some of the main data points measuring the health of the labor market in the world’s largest economy.

The report almost always comes out on the first Friday of the month, but not this month: The February 2017 report is scheduled to be released on March 10, a week later than might be expected. It turns out that this is due to the way the jobs numbers are gathered and how the days of the week fell this year during a short month.

When the 12th is on a Sunday and there are 30 days or less in the month, the release date will wind up being the second Friday of the following month – so March 10, not tomorrow.

Attorney General Jeff Sessions said he would recuse himself from investigations involving the Trump campaign over his contacts with Russian officials during the 2016 election, but stood firm on the answers he gave during his Senate confirmation hearing about his past communications. Sessions denied during his confirmation hearing that he had ever communicated with any Russian officials while he was a top Trump campaign surrogate.

During his press conference, Sessions emphasized that he didn’t meet with Russian operatives about the Trump campaign during the election. So, the story is shifting. Is it too late to change my vote for Creepiest Thing of the Day?

Monday, October 31, 2016

No Fear

Financial Review

No Fear


DOW – 18 = 18,142
SPX – 0.26 = 2126
NAS – 0.97 = 5189
10 Y – .01 = 1.83%
OIL – 1.94 = 46.76
GOLD + 2.30 = 1278.00

Another Merger Monday. For the second consecutive week, we have a batch of big mergers announced. US mergers and acquisitions activity in October was already at a record high before these deals were announced, led by AT&T’s giant deal for Time Warner.

GE is merging its oil and gas business with Baker Hughes. GE will own 62.5% of the new publicly traded company, which will have combined revenue of $32 billion, while Baker Hughes shareholders will own 37.5% and will receive a one-time special dividend of $17.50 a share when the deal closes. The combination of GE Oil & Gas and Baker Hughes will create the second-largest player in the oil-field services industry in terms of revenue after Schlumberger.

Telecommunications company CenturyLink said it would buy Level 3 Communications in a cash-and-stock deal with an equity value of about $24 billion, or about $34 billion, including debt. The deal implies a purchase price of $66.50 per share – a premium of approximately 42% above where Level 3 shares were trading last week, before reports surfaced of a potential acquisition. The combination will increase CenturyLink’s fiber network in the US to 450,000 miles from about 250,000.

Blackstone Group will buy TeamHealth Holdings in a deal valued at about $6.1 billion. TeamHealth is a hospital staffing provider. Blackstone will pay TeamHealth shareholders $43.50 per share held, a premium of about 18 percent to the stock’s Friday close.

 Multiple sources say a long-rumored merger between DraftKings and FanDuel is imminent; the pair’s recent settlement with NY Attorney General Eric Schneiderman cleared a key obstacle to the pair-up. Some of the major details discussed last week included executive leadership, the name of the company, whether one site or two will be used, and where the company headquarters will be located. Combined, the two firms cover 90-95% of the daily fantasy market.

Brocade Communications spiked as much as 24% today after a report that the company is finalizing talks to sell itself. Bloomberg reported that a sale of the data-storage and networking provider could be announced as soon as this week, and Broadcom is one of the interested potential buyers. Broadcom makes semiconductors, part of the components that go into Brocade’s networking equipment – so it might make a good fit.

Consumers boosted their spending in September at the fastest pace in three months, while their incomes grew by a modest amount. Consumer spending increased 0.5 percent, a significant rebound from August when spending fell 0.1 percent. The increase was led by a 1.3 percent surge in spending on autos and other durable goods. Incomes increased 0.3 percent in September, slightly faster than the 0.2 percent gain in August. With spending rising faster than incomes, the personal saving rate slipped slightly to 5.7 percent in September, down from 5.8 percent in August.

A key inflation gauge followed by the Federal Reserve was up a slight 0.2 percent in September, while core prices, excluding food and energy, rose only 0.1 percent. Over the past year, core prices are up just 1.7 percent, still below the Fed’s 2 percent inflation target. The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDP Now forecast model showed the economy is on track to grow at a 2.7% annualized pace in the fourth quarter.

Fed officials meet this week, but they are expected to its key policy rate unchanged at 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent, where it has been since December of last year. The FOMC will wrap up their 2-day meeting on Wednesday. Still, it looks like a rate hike will come in December, and so this week’s FOMC statement will likely include some sort of vaguely blunt Fedspeak sending a clear message to markets that, barring any unforeseen hiccups, the Fed is a go for a December hike.

On Friday, we have the October jobs report. The economy has been averaging 178,000 new jobs per month for 2016, and that is the estimate for the past month; however, the September numbers were off a bit – only 156,000. This will be the biggest economic report before next week’s election.

Bond markets around the globe are acting rattled by inflationary pressures and October was a bad month for bonds, down 3%; and even US Treasuries lost 1.2%. People are responding to this idea that central banks will be suddenly shifting away from their excess accommodation.

Commercial banks in the US have amassed $90 billion of Treasuries and non-mortgage debt from federal agencies this year alone, bringing the total to $754 billion, according to data compiled by the Fed. The 5 biggest US banks held a combined $206 billion of government debt at the end of the second quarter, according to the latest available filings. That’s a 74 percent increase over the past three years.

Including federally guaranteed mortgage-backed securities, banks now own $2.4 trillion of government bonds, which would be the most since the central bank began compiling data in 1973. Why are banks hoarding all that debt? One reason is tighter regulations; the other is banks aren’t lending more because the economy isn’t growing as fast as we’d like it to grow. A big reason banks are funneling so much money into safe assets is that deposit growth is outstripping loan demand.

Eurozone economic growth remained steady at 0.3% in third quarter, indicating 1.6% over the year and suggesting the bloc’s steady recovery has not so far been knocked off course by Britain’s vote to leave the EU. Inflation figures, released at the same time, saw a modest rise in October. The service sector helped boost the Flash Inflation figure to 0.5%, up from 0.4% in September, but the number narrowly missed expectations for a 0.6% rise.

Officials and experts from OPEC countries and non-OPEC nations including Azerbaijan, Brazil, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Oman and Russia met for consultations in Vienna on Saturday and they could not agree to a specific commitment to join OPEC in limiting oil output levels to prop up prices, suggesting they want the oil producing group to solve its differences first. On Friday, OPEC members failed to agree how to put in place a global deal to limit production, following objections from Iran which has been reluctant to freeze its output. The non-OPEC did agree to meet again in November before a scheduled regular OPEC meeting on Nov. 30.

Elon Musk has unveiled a new kind of solar roof that will be offered starting next year through SolarCity, the home solar installation company that he is seeking to merge into Tesla. Whether meant to emulate clay tiles on a Spanish-style house or shingles on a colonial, Musk said they have 98% of the ray-collecting power of a conventional solar panel, are durable and will last longer than the house itself. Tesla gave little detail on cost, except to say that the cost of the roof would be less than a conventional roof plus solar. The plan is to combine the solar roof tiles with a bank of batteries called Powerwall, and provide power to an electric car.

Moody’s Investors Services just issued a bond rating report explaining how and why it considers climate change risk in rating energy companies. Among the G20 economies, electricity production and central heating account for 45 percent of the country’s carbon emissions. This is, of course, the economic sector that can utilize renewables right now. The firms in the electric business are capital intensive and issue bonds often. If the rating agencies become negative on the sector and lower the bond ratings, companies will pay more to raise money and a few will not be able to raise money.

Moody’s argument could be boiled down to this. The cost of renewable energy is falling, and lower renewable prices will put pressure on wholesale energy prices just as carbon pricing adds to the costs of the carbon-fueled generators. Thus, margins will fall the most for the least efficient carbon-fueled facilities. Moody’s entitled its report, “Carbon Transition Brings Risks and Opportunities”. In sum, it appears that big money is beginning to speak, and it says, “Carbon emissions count and if you don’t believe that, you’ll pay dearly if you need money and you might not get our money at all.”

Volkswagen plans to cut more than 10,000 jobs in coming years as the German auto giant switches its focus to making electric cars in the wake of its Dieselgate scandal.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has finally signed Canada’s free trade agreement with Europe at a ceremony in Brussels. CETA will remove 98% of tariffs – and officials hope it will generate an increase in trade worth $12 billion a year. For a while it looked like the trade deal might not happen because Wallonia, a province in Belgium objected to certain provisions, which were ultimately changed.

But the Walloon intransigence has underlined the extent to which trade has become politically radioactive as citizens increasingly blame globalization for growing disparities in wealth and living standards. What about implications for the much-debated US –EU trade deal? EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom declared, “TTIP is not dead,” adding that negotiations will continue after the November election.

Putting the fizz back into its line-up, Coca-Cola Ginger was launched in Australia today, as the South Hemisphere country ushers in summer. Coca-Cola South Pacific noted that sales of ginger-flavored drinks were up 6% in Australia over the past year, and Bundaberg Ginger Beer has been a favorite since it was launched in 1960.

Sony Corp cut its annual profit outlook due to losses related to the sale of its battery business – disappointing a market that had been hoping for an upward revision on sales momentum for PlayStation 4 and the launch of its virtual reality headset. Sony will announce its first-half results tomorrow.

Happy Halloween to everyone. I hope you enjoyed my costume today –if you haven’t noticed, I’m dressed as a weary broadcaster, sick to death of this seemingly never-ending political campaign where issues have fallen into a bottomless abyss, never to see the light of day. Eight more days until the 2016 campaign is over. Unless … No we won’t even go there. It’s gonna be over. Anyone who mentions the 269-269 electoral vote scenario gets banned.

Monday, March 23, 2015

Transitory, Not Terminal

Financial Review

Transitory, Not Terminal


DOW – 11 = 18,116
SPX – 3 = 2104
NAS – 15 = 5010
10 YR YLD – .01 = 1.91%
OIL + .88 = 47.45
GOLD + 6.90 = 1190.30
SILV + .25 = 17.08

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is still above 18,000. The Nasdaq Composite is above 5,000. The Russell 2000 is near record highs. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Composite, which dipped below 17,000 early in the year, took about a month to surge from 18,000 to 19,000 and is now rapidly approaching the 20,000 level; heights that haven’t been seen since 2000. Germany’s DAX recently traded above 12,000 for the first time and is up nearly 30 percent from the lows set earlier this year. London’s FTSE 100 is over 7,000, at its highest level in 15 years. Central bank monetary easing seems to be having the desired effect of pumping up financial assets around the globe, and even if the Fed is talking about hiking rates in the US, we haven’t seen a serious rate hike tantrum on Wall Street, yet.

U.S. home resales rebounded less than expected in February. The National Association of Realtors said that existing home sales rose 1.2% to an annual rate of 4.88 million units. Inventories are tight and also sales were hurt by harsh winter weather in the Northeast, where sales dropped 6.5%; sales were up 5.7% in the West. Last month, the inventory of unsold homes on the market rose 1.6 percent to 1.89 million units. Supply was, however, down 0.5 percent from a year ago. Inventory growth should be averaging roughly 5.6 percent at this time of the year, when the market gets ready for the spring selling season. Tight inventories are hurting sales by limiting the selection of houses available to potential buyers. The lack of supply is also keeping house prices high, helping to sideline first-time buyers.

The consumer price index tomorrow is one of the most important data points of the week, with the Fed hoping for a pickup in inflation. For the first time in five months, it’s expected to be positive, but barely. Gas prices rebounded a bit in February while food costs are estimated to have fallen, most likely producing a slight increase in the CPI. Economists are expecting a 0.2 percent rise in the headline number for the Consumer Price Index in February, with core prices excluding the volatile energy and food sectors to have risen by 0.1 percent.

On Wednesday, durable goods for February are out. The Financial Stability Board, an international panel of top central bankers and bank regulators that is working on ways to prevent future financial crises, holds a meeting on Thursday in Germany. Then Friday brings a look at the final estimate on fourth-quarter gross domestic product. After initially estimating a 2.6 percent rate in January, government statisticians revised that downward to 2.2 percent last month. The final estimate is now expected to come in at 2.4 percent.

Also on Friday, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen will speak in San Francisco; the title of her speech is “The New Normal for Monetary Policy”, and the thinking is that she might provide more insight on Fed plans to raise interest rates.

Greece and Germany have not been getting along lately. Greece is, of course broke, and could run out of cash in the next 2 weeks. One month ago, Greece promised to come up with a list of economic reforms to qualify for another bailout; the problem is that the reforms being championed mainly by Germany, would be devastating to the Greek economy, which has already been devastated. So, they have not presented the list.

The Financial Times reports that Greek Prime Minister Alex Tsipras did write a letter to German Chancellor Angela Merkel warning that it will be “impossible” for Athens to service debt obligations due in the coming weeks if the EU fails to distribute any short-term financial assistance to the country. Today, Tsipras is in Berlin and he met with Merkel. There was a dinner last night with what was described as intense discussions. A spokesman for Merkel said no one should expect a result from today’s meeting.  Any solution would be the role of the Euro Union and the European Central Bank. After the meeting, Merkel said she wants to see Greece economically strong and to have growth. Still, Merkel was clear that Greece still has to convince its official creditors that its economic policy program does enough to boost competitiveness and rein in spending before any more aid will be released. So for now, they are at loggerheads but the name-calling has stopped.

If the plan of the Troika was to starve the Tsipras government and produce either capitulation or a loss of domestic credibility, their effort appears to be on track. ECB president Mario Draghi was asked if the ECB was blackmailing Greece. He suggested it was the other way around. No matter, the timeline is running short and at some point in the next few weeks, something will happen, and it will be a relatively big event.

On Sunday, Saudi Arabia’s oil minister reiterated it would not unilaterally cut its output to defend prices; saying the Saudis would let the market determine prices for oil and vowed not to cut production unless other non-Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries members did. The Saudi oil minister said the kingdom was now pumping around 10 million barrels per day (bpd), which could indicate an increase of 350,000 bpd over its February production. Initially, oil prices moved lower on that news, but then the effect of a declining dollar kicked in. Toss in oversold conditions, and the likelihood that some speculative shorts were exiting positions, and the combo gives a good read of the mood in the energy markets, even if we can’t draw a causal line.

A strong dollar may pose a threat to some corporate earnings, especially US based multinationals. The dollar index has gained about 22% in the past 12 months. Revenue and earnings from foreign markets are worth less when translated into greenbacks and their costs become relatively less competitive against rivals producing in countries with declining currencies. The result might be an earnings recession, which basically means at least 2 consecutive quarters of declining earnings based on year-over-year results. Wall Street analysts currently estimate earnings growth of 1.3 percent for 2015, down from a forecast of 8.1 percent at the beginning of the year, according to Thomson Reuters data. The S&P 500’s earnings per share are expected to drop 3.1 percent in the first quarter and 0.7 percent in the second quarter before recovering modestly in the second-half of the year.

Nearly one-fifth of S&P 500 companies have warned on earnings for the first quarter, with at least 49 companies mentioning the effects of the dollar on results, according to Thomson Reuters. And earnings expectations might be ratcheted lower as more companies asses the dollar impact in coming weeks.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday lowered its expectations for US economic growth and inflation over the next two years. Chair Janet Yellen said during a press conference last week, “export growth has weakened, probably the strong dollar is one reason for that.” And while it is easy to say a strong dollar makes exports more expensive, it might be overly simplistic to say that is the reason behind a 4.1% drop in the value of exported goods in January compared to a month earlier.

You have to look closer to see that the industrial supplies and material group was responsible for 35% of the drop in the value of total exports from October to January; things like non-monetary gold, plus natural gas liquids, and organic chemicals. All right, commodity prices are down, but the items are still shipping. Capital goods excluding autos accounted for a 25% drop; things like civilian aircraft and aircraft engines. All right, but Boeing saw its 2014 orders increase versus the prior year, and the company has backlogs till forever. Consumer goods exports dropped 6%; not good but not horrible, especially in light of the West Coast port slowdown. Certainly a strong dollar is hurting corporate earnings but it hasn’t really spread through the broader economy, or it has been largely offset by the benefits of cheaper imports, such a lower prices for oil. The main point is that the effects so far appear to be transitory, not terminal.

Another consideration is that the Federal Reserve is talking about hiking interest rates while several other central banks are cutting rates, such as Japan and the Eurozone. The result is that in many places rates have turned negative. The European Central Bank’s fight against deflation has pushed yields on almost a third of the euro area’s $6.2 trillion of government bonds below zero. The result is that investors are now chasing yield. Buying negative yield, on the long-term, you only have downside but you never have upside. Even the most risk averse investors are taking chances on assets and regions that they probably wouldn’t have considered just a few months ago. European enthusiasm for higher-yielding assets has helped U.S. borrowers sell 3.28 billion euros of junk bonds in 2015, the busiest start to a year since the currency started in 1999.And while some of that money might come to the US, a lot of it is finding its way to frontier markets.

The bond market worldwide is more vulnerable to losses than at any time on record, based a metric known as duration. Yields for bonds of all types, from the most-creditworthy to the riskiest, are so historically low means that when the selloff finally does happen, it has the potential to be nasty. Consider Germany’s 30 year bonds, currently yielding 0.59%; if yields rose a half a percentage point in the coming year, buyers would suffer losses of 10%.

Wednesday, January 14, 2015

Banks Under Assault

FINANCIAL REVIEW

Banks Under Assault

DOW – 186 = 17,427
SPX – 11 = 2011
NAS – 22 = 4639
10 YR YLD – .05 = 1.84%
OIL + .28 = 46.17
GOLD – 1.80 = 1230.10
SILV – .25 = 16.94
The roller coaster ride continues, with a 345 point swing in the Dow Industrials from the intraday high and low.
A couple of economic reports set the stage this morning. First, retail sales in the US sank in December largely because of cheaper gasoline prices, but most stores posted surprisingly weak results during the busiest month of the shopping season. Sales at retailers dropped a seasonally adjusted 0.9% last month to mark the biggest decline in nearly a year. Excluding gas and car sales, retail sales fell 0.3%. It was the biggest decline for retail sales in 11 months.
One month does not make a trend but this kind of puts a dent in the idea that consumers would save money at the gas station but spend elsewhere. Instead it looks like people are tightening purse strings, which is symptomatic of deleveraging and deflation; it might also be indicative of how much the economy has changed in terms of job stability, wage stagnation, and retirement prospects; all of which point to much greater pressures to save.
The Federal Reserve then offered confirmation of a weak sales. The Fed’s Beige Book said most districts reported “modest” to “moderate” growth from mid-November to late December, and the Fed’s contacts for the most part expected somewhat faster growth this year. The report said there was generally “modest” consumer spending growth, outside of the demand for automobiles and vacations.
The prices that Americans paid for imported goods fell 2.5% in December, the biggest drop in six years; and that goes to the sharp decline in oil prices. This wasn’t a surprise; the import price index started to decline in July and it fell 7.3% in the second half of 2014. The 2.5% move in December was the biggest drop in import prices since 2008. The good news is that we aren’t seeing any real signs of inflation and probably won’t for the next few months, at least.
And oil isn’t the only commodity that has been dropping. Copper has crashed. Not to sound alarmist, but I think crash is the right word here. Copper enjoyed a nice bull run from 2001 to 2011, up more than 600%. But the global economies have now slowed down. Known as Dr. Copper, the commodity is a chief building and manufacturing material and to some a harbinger of the global economy. So when copper prices collapse, the doctor is telling us that the health of the global economy is sickly. Some blamed copper’s losses yesterday on the World Bank, which cut its global-growth outlook. China had been on a building boom, and that meant copper piping and copper wires. The Chinese building boom is over. Europe is slowing down. Chile is the top producer and they are still expecting record production for 2015. This ain’t rocket science; supply is up and demand is way down.
Copper prices have been sliding since the middle of the summer over concerns that slowing global growth might curb industrial demand for the metal. When copper reached $2.72 a pound, the bottom fell out; that works out to $6,000 a ton on the London Metal Exchange, and in just the past couple of days we’ve seen the price fall to an intraday low of $2.42. But it’s not just copper; there are several indexes that track a basket of commodities. The CRB index is down 20% over the past year; an index from S&P is down 37%; the Roger’s International Commodity Index is down 28% since June.
And it isn’t just oil and Dr. Copper telling us that there is something wrong with the world’s economies. The bond market is painting a less than rosy picture. Today, the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond settled at 2.450% compared with 2.482% on Tuesday. The yield broke the previous closing low of 2.466% set in July 2012 when demand for haven bonds surged over the Eurozone’s sovereign debt crisis. Yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 1.833% compared with 1.89% on Tuesday. The 10-year yield has tumbled from 2.173% at the end of 2014 and 3.03% at the end of 2013.
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Narayana Kocherlakota said rock-bottom borrowing costs in the bond market are not a positive vote on the economic outlook. Kocherlakota said: “The low long-term yields are actually a source of unease to me” because they suggest investors are marking down the economy’s long-term prospects, while indicating that it’s possible the Fed will have less room to maneuver when it comes to future monetary policy making.
Even as the Federal Reserve has moved closer to raising rates, bond yields have been falling, at a time when they would normally be rising to price in the prospect of higher short-term interest rates. Many view the drop in borrowing costs a reflection of the US’ value as a safe haven for money at a time where global economic conditions are deteriorating. The market’s movements suggest that even if the Fed meets expectations and raises rates this year, financial conditions might not reflect this change in Fed policy. The Fed has fallen short of achieving its 2% price target for over two years now, and crashing oil prices mean headline inflation will likely be negative over the start of the year, if not longer. And the Fed’s other mandate of promoting maximum employment, while headed in the right direction, still has plenty of room for further improvement.
Before the start of trade we had a couple of big banks posting earnings. Wells Fargo reported net income of $5.71 billion, compared with year-earlier income of $5.61 billion. Per-share earnings, reflecting the payment of preferred dividends, edged up to $1.02 from $1 a year earlier – matching estimates. Revenue increased 3.8% to $21.44 billion – beating estimates.
Wells Fargo’s mortgage banking results are closely watched; it is the largest mortgage lender in the country and so it is viewed as a bellwether for the housing market. Wells Fargo reported its home lending originations amounted to $44 billion, compared with the $50 billion a year earlier and $48 billion in the prior quarter. Reserve releases fell to $250 million from $600 million a year earlier and $300 million in the prior quarter. Banks generally release reserves as credit conditions improve and they perceive less need to hold reserves against potential loan losses. Meanwhile, Wells Fargo’s credit-loss provisions ticked up to $485 million, compared with $363 million a year earlier and $368 million in the prior quarter.
JPMorgan Chase reported a 6.6% drop in quarterly profit. Net income fell to $4.9 billion, or $1.19 per share, from $5.2 billion, or $1.30 per share a year earlier. Revenue on a managed basis fell 2.3% to $23.5 billion. The results were well below estimates. Legal expenses rose to $1.1 billion in the fourth quarter, from $847 million in the same quarter last year, total legal costs of $2.9 billion for the year were far less than the $11.1 billion recorded in 2013.
CEO Jamie Dimon was asked about the legal expenses and he said: “Banks are under assault. We have five or six regulators coming at us on every issue. Obviously companies make mistakes. We try to resolve it, we try to fix it, we admit it.”
All right. Companies do make mistakes. The bank revealed in October that names, addresses, phone numbers and email addresses of the holders of about 83 million accounts were exposed when its systems were hacked. That was a mistake that should never have happened. JPMorgan’s transgressions go far beyond the realm of basic mistakes; companies make mistakes but not all companies break the law by rigging foreign exchange markets and interest rate markets and derivatives markets and commodity markets and municipal bond markets and energy markets. And the reason JPMorgan has regulators coming at them on every issue is because they have violated so many laws on just about every issue. Chase’s documented list of crimes included repeated fraud, perjury, forgery, bribery, and violations of laws against trading with Iran and Syria.
But wait, there’s more: Bank Secrecy Act violations; misrepresentations of CDOs and mortgage-backed securities; violations of the Servicemembers Civil Relief Act; fraudulent sale of unregistered securities; auto-finance deceptions; violations of state and federal ERISA laws; filing of unverified affidavits for credit card debt collections; energy market manipulation that triggered FERC lawsuits; “artificial market making” at Japanese affiliates; shifting trading losses on a currency trade to a customer account; fraudulent sales of derivatives; and obstruction of justice (including refusing the release of documents in the Bernie Madoff case).” JPMorgan Chase was one of five banks which agreed to pay billions in fines to settle charges stemming from massive and systematic foreclosure fraud.
Pop quiz: How many senior executives at JPMorgan Chase have faced criminal prosecution for the bank’s serial crimes? How many have been personally fined, served with cease and desist orders, or been barred from acting as officers and directors of public companies?
Answer: Zero.
And with regard to Dimon’s claim that they admit their mistakes; well, most of the financial settlements that they have reached include the caveat that they are not admitting or denying wrongdoing. As far as fixing their mistakes? It might be more believable if they actually stopped breaking the law, and if they got control of their out of control bank. A high recidivism rate is not the way to amend mistakes. Jamie Dimon is right, the banks, or at least JPMorgan, are coming under assault from the regulators, but only because they are so incredibly guilty.
Wells Fargo became the most profitable US bank in 2013, overtaking JPMorgan. And today Wells Fargo delivered a solid earnings report due to “continued strength in the fundamental drivers of long-term performance: growing customers, loans, deposits and capital.” JPMorgan delivered a big miss on earnings and it’s the regulators fault. At some point, the banksters and all the politicians they buy need to learn the lesson that the best response to excessive government regulation is not deregulation, it is unrelenting, uncompromising self-regulation.

Monday, December 15, 2014

At Least it Wasn’t a 100 Point Drop

FINANCIAL REVIEW

At Least it Wasn’t a 100 Point Drop

DOW -99.99 = 17,180
SPX – 12 = 1989
NAS – 48 = 4605
10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.11%
OIL – 2.53 = 55.28
GOLD – 28.30 = 1194.50
SILV – .85 = 16.29
The S&P 500 index traded below its 50 day moving average for the first time since the end of October. At its session low, the S&P 500 was down about 5 percent from its record intraday high hit earlier this month but up more than 8 percent from a low hit in October. Oil continues to be a drag on the stock market, and West Texas Intermediate hit a 5 ½ year low; now down right at 50% from the highs of June. OPEC’s Secretary General reiterated the oil producing organization will not cut production despite the current low prices and glut of supply coming out of the US and elsewhere. That’s leaving supply plentiful and prices low even as demand has been waning.
We have seen the lower prices at the pump and that basically means everybody gets a break, a few extra dollars in your pocket. That’s a good thing. So, why is the stock market reacting badly to lower oil prices? Quite simply there are a lot of companies involved in the energy sector, and that is where we get the drag. Also, the decline in oil prices alongside other economically sensitive commodities, including copper, might signal trouble in the global economy. A sputtering recovery in Europe and concerns about Asia have undercut oil demand even as robust production adds to a global oil glut. The fear is that the drop in oil prices might be a warning of something more sinister in the global economy. And if there are really global economic problems, it could spell trouble for the debt accumulated by energy companies, especially in the high yield market.
In economic news today, the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo released the homebuilders’ confidence index today; it dropped one point to 57. A reading above 50 indicates optimism about new home sales trends. December marks the sixth consecutive month of above-50 readings.
Industrial production rose a seasonally adjusted 1.3% in November. This is the biggest increase since May 2010. The Federal Reserve also made upward revisions to output in the past three months. In November, manufacturing output rose 1.1% with broad-based gains. Output of consumer goods rose 2.5%, the largest increase since August 1998. Utilities output jumped 5.1% on cold weather in the month. Mining output dropped 0.1%.
The Great Recession is officially over, but Americans are still 40% poorer today than they were in 2007, the year before the global financial crisis. According to a new report by the nonprofit think-tank Pew Research Center, the net worth of American families — the difference between the values of their assets, including homes and investments, and liabilities — fell to $81,400 in 2013, down slightly from $82,300 in 2010, but a long way off the $135,700 in 2007. There is also a dramatic disparity in net worth between races. The median net worth of white households was $141,900 in 2013, down 26% since 2007. It declined by 42% to $13,700 over the same period for Hispanic households and fell by 43% to $11,000 for African-American households. One theory for the wealth gap: White households are more likely than other ethnicities to own stocks directly or indirectly through retirement accounts.
The wealth of most Americans has stood still. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in November 2014, the average weekly wage was $853 versus $833 for November 2013. But things are improving somewhat when it comes to housing. According to Black Knight Financial Services, which tracks mortgage performance, nationwide, only 8% of borrowers have homes that are underwater as of October 2014, down from a peak of 35%, or 18 million homes, in February 2011; but 8% still impacts 4 million homes.
Bigger economic news this week will come from Europe, where there will be a presidential election in Greece, which will likely lead to snap elections, which will likely lead to talk of Greece defaulting or making a general commotion in the Eurozone.
Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras has brought forward the presidential election to this Wednesday, two months earlier than initially planned. Center-right Samaras needs to get two-thirds of the 300 members of parliament to back his party in either the Wednesday vote or a second round, which is expected just before Christmas. Should he fail, the threshold drops to 180 votes in the third round, possibly held on Dec. 29. If Samaras fails to secure enough support in the third round, parliament must be dissolved, meaning a possible snap election in late January; which seems very possible. And in a snap election, the far-left, anti-austerity Syriza Party is leading the polls. They don’t necessarily want to exit the Euro Union, but the Euro Union might want to kick them out. We’ll see. But the whole thing has really messed with the Greek stock market and threatens the Euro financial theater.
Meanwhile, a snap election was held in Japan yesterday. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito, its junior partner in the ruling coalition, won the Lower House election by a landslide. In an election billed as a touchstone for the LDP’s economic policies, the ruling bloc secured a two-thirds supermajority in the 475-seat House of Representatives, giving it the power to override the Upper House. Sunday’s poll was widely seen as a referendum on Abe’s economic policies, dubbed “Abenomics” — a policy mix of radical monetary easing, fiscal stimulus and structural reform vows.
Russia’s currency is plunging yet again today. Currency prices are all about supply and demand. And just about everything that’s transpired in the past year has made the world far less interested in buying Russian money. Last year, one-third of Russia’s exports came from crude oil. When the value of your exports collapse, so does your currency. Worse yet, the Russian government, ever dependent on oil revenue, needs about $100 per barrel to balance its budget. And so, in a rather surprising and dramatic move late today, the Russian Central Bank raised interest rates from 10.5% to 17%. The ruble has lost 18 percent of its value just this month and if the slide continues it might just end up as the worst performing currency of the year—even worse than the Ukrainian hryvnia. Sometimes irony can be completely delicious.
The main event in the US is the Federal Reserve rate decision, where most observers are on the lookout for any change in the central bank’s rhetoric, especially around the timing of a rate hike. No one really expects the Federal Open Market Committee to do anything to the Fed’s ultra-low interest rates when they meet on Wednesday. That’s why most traders will instead focus on any changes to the language in Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen’s statement: Will it finally drop the phrase “considerable time” when discussing when it may make its first rate hike?
One of the thing the Fed should do, if they are really serious about raising rates, is to explain how they will handle the disconnect between the US and the international bond markets, because it is a disconnect that just might lead to a big sell-off in bonds.
US central bank policy makers expect the main Fed funds rate to rise from near zero today to 1.25 per cent by the end of next year, with the first rate rise penciled in for next June. The market projects rates to end 2015 at 0.50 per cent, with the first rate rise in October.
By the end of 2016, the Fed’s policy makers forecast rates at 2.75 per cent, while the market has them at 1.50 per cent. By the end of 2017, Fed policy makers expect rates to be 3.75 per cent compared with market forecasts of 2.0 per cent.
Keep in mind that we are likely to see much more monetary easing in Japan, now that Abe has scored a victory in the snap election. Also, there is a very strong likelihood that Mario Draghi will indeed deliver full blown quantitative easing in the Eurozone early next year, which should keep Euro bond yields in the extremely low to negative range.
But in the US, there has to be risks that yields will rise sharply, should the Fed stick to its forecasts and start tightening policy aggressively in the middle of next year.
With yields on 10-year US Treasuries close to all-time lows and nearly a percentage point lower than they were when the year began, yields surely have only one direction to go — and that is up. If US yields do head north, then yields in other government bonds are likely to follow, despite benign inflationary pressures and the launch of QE by the European Central Bank and continued QE in Japan.
It means 2015 could be a tricky year for fixed income fund managers, particularly those running long-only portfolios. This might explain why absolute return funds have become more popular, as these funds can short the market and use derivatives to protect capital in the event of a blow-up in bonds.
For example, some absolute return funds have bought emerging market credit default swaps to protect portfolios against a sharp jump in yields. I don’t want to play the game of trying to predict where bond yields will be a year from now; that’s a fool’s errand, as the spectacular failure of most bond forecasts this past year proved. But it seems that something big might happen, just because there is a big disconnect between global bond markets.
The US Senate was still at work today because there are a few more pre-holiday tasks ahead. However, there will be no government shutdown as a spending bill was passed Saturday. There were some very strange provisions that were tacked onto the spending bill, but the strangest by far was allowing Citigroup to open a branch office in the cloakroom of the House of Representative. Lawmakers said it was just a matter of convenience and would make it easier to collect their payments and take there marching orders. (not confirmed, it just seems that way)

Friday, May 30, 2014

Friday, May 30, 2014 - Record Highs, Bonds, Coal Mines

Financial Review with Sinclair Noe


DOW + 18 = 16,717
SPX + 3 = 1923 (another record)
NAS – 5 = 4242 (not a record)
10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.45%
OIL - .71 =  102.87
GOLD – 4.60 = 1252.30
SILV - .23 = 18.91

For the week, the Dow rose 0.7%, the S&P 500 gained 1.2% and the Nasdaq added 1.4%. For the month of May, the Dow gained 0.8%, the S&P 500 rose 2.1% and the Nasdaq climbed 3.1%. Meanwhile, if you are looking for action, the bond market is the place; the yield on the 10 year note has dropped from 2.65% to 2.45% this month.

Nearly everyone is looking for an explanation as to why longer-term interest rates continue to fall in the face of reduced Fed support and what is being hyped as better economic data. This wasn’t supposed to happen. The Federal Reserve has been propping up Treasury bond prices, and suppressing yields, for the past several years by buying large quantities of bonds each month in an effort to increase investment and consumption, and force investors into riskier assets. To some extent, the Fed’s QE purchases have worked; ultra-low interest rates have supported housing price increases and have led to skyrocketing stock prices.  Household net worth has increased by $25 trillion from the financial-crisis lows in the first quarter of 2009.  However, these gains in net worth have overwhelmingly accrued to the well-to-do while low- to moderate-income folks continue to suffer from poor employment opportunities, stagnant incomes, inadequate retirement savings, and rising costs for everything from food and energy to health care and education.  In other words, the economy hasn’t really improved but the Fed may have created financial asset bubbles.

Last December the Fed began winding down its large scale asset purchases by tapering, or incrementally reducing the amount of purchases over a scheduled period of a year or so. Back in December the Fed was buying $85 billion a month in mortgage backed securities and treasuries; they have now cut that to just $45 billion a month, and by the end of the year they anticipate they will end the large scale asset purchases. This means that demand for treasuries and MBS has, or should have dropped significantly. If there is less demand and the supply stays the same, then prices should fall and bond yields should be moving higher. The exact opposite has been happening; long term bond prices have increased and bond yields have been falling; and the timing of this increase in prices and drop in yields coincides with the start of the Fed taper.

Is there something wrong with the supply/demand equation? Is there invisible demand out there? Well, treasuries are considered a safe haven investment, and if we saw volatility in the stock market, we might expect a move to the safe haven of treasuries. Right now the CBOE Volatility Index known as the VIX, is down. As the 10-year yield touches the 2.4% level, its lowest in nearly a year, the VIX is hovering around 11.5, near its lowest levels since before the financial crisis.

The VIX measures volatility in the US market, so maybe we need to broaden out horizons. Europe is experiencing low-flation, and in some Euro countries the low-flation has turned to deflation; as a consequence, the rates in Europe are very low: German 10 year bonds yield 1.36%, France yields 1.75%, Spain 10 year notes yield 2.86%. In a global market there is something wrong with pricing. Why is the US bond yield higher than the French bond yield? That does not compute.

Of course, one explanation is that foreign investors are looking for a place to park money and if you can get a better yield on US treasuries compared to French bonds, it just makes sense that you wouldn’t buy the French bonds; add in the idea that buying US treasuries serves as an effective hedge against home currency depreciation and treasuries should be attracting money that might be held in emerging market economies.

In general, if economic growth is expected to accelerate, interest rates should rise as well.  The reason for this is fairly straightforward.  Increased demand for goods and services should lead to price increases.  Inflation is one component of "nominal" interest rates.  The other component is called the "real" rate of interest, and it is determined by the demand for money.  As economic growth accelerates, the demand for money should increase as people become more confident in making spending and investment decisions.  Therefore, higher inflation expectations and higher demand for money should lead to higher interest rates in a strengthening economy; but they haven't. Perhaps the weak economy of the Eurozone is holding back rates in the US, or maybe the US economy isn’t as strong as we imagine.

Another consideration has us going back to the supply-demand equation; if supply dries up faster than demand dries up, then that would push prices higher. Remember that the federal deficit has been trimmed to the lowest levels in about 13 years and that means the government isn’t issuing as much new debt. And the housing market has slowed and that means there should be less in the way of mortgage backed securities.

That was certainly the case for the first quarter; the US economy shrank. And there are no real signs of inflation in the US, or at least we didn’t see inflation for quite some time. That may be changing; the April CPI and PPI showed a minor pop in prices; the low interest rate environment has boosted financial asset prices, so stocks and housing prices have moved higher; food prices are also higher but they tend to be overlooked as a weather related aberration, although I doubt that is temporary; the labor market is still weak and despite the unemployment rate dropping to 6.3% there is tremendous slack and little participation and there doesn’t seem to be any wage inflation. The Fed might claim the economy is getting stronger and the Fed might not consider deflation to be a problem, but the bond market seems to be saying the recovery is sick. At least for the Main Street economy.

Further proof today showing American shoppers dialed it back in April. Household purchases fell 0.1%, the first decrease in a year, and following a 1% gain in March; that was the bounce back from the pent up demand of the frozen winter. After adjusting the figure to account for inflation, the news was worse; spending dropped by the most since September 2009 as income growth cooled. Incomes advanced just 0.3% in April, and without pay gains, consumers lack confidence. Consumer sentiment dropped from 84.1 in April to 81.9 in May. What we’re seeing is the failure of trickledown. The stock market may be strong, the well-off may be better off, but it doesn’t trickle down. The economy is never going to recovery without broad based demand, and that will only happen when the labor market gets strong, until then, the Fed is pushing on a string with QE and the Zero Interest Rate Policy.

There are many possible reasons behind the move in bonds, but a big part still has to do with the economy, even with all the subplots of the international markets and the inflation-deflation debate, we get back to the idea that the economy is weak, and the recovery is uneven. The first quarter GDP contraction was certainly weather related but that doesn’t mean the economy will bounce like a quarter on a trampoline. Second quarter GDP should be positive but probably not sizzling hot. I don’t buy that story, and apparently the bond market isn’t buying it either.

Next week’s economic calendar includes the ISM surveys of business activity in the manufacturing and services sector. What will be important to the outlook is what the surveys say about employment, export prospects and inventories. On Wednesday the Fed will release its Beige Book of regional economic reports. The next Fed FOMC meeting is June 17-18. Next Friday is the monthly jobs report; the unemployment rate, the headline number is at 6.3%, but that’s based on a participation rate at 62.8%. If the participation rate moves higher, look for the unemployment rate to jump.

Another big event next week, President Obama on Monday will unveil a plan to cut carbon pollution from power plants and promote cap-and-trade, undertaking the most significant action on climate change in American history. The proposed regulations could cut carbon pollution by as much as 25% from about 1,600 power plants in operation today. Power plants are the country's single biggest source of carbon pollution; responsible for up to 40% of the country's emissions.

The rules, which were drafted by the Environmental Protection Agency and are under review by the White House, are expected to put America on course to meet its international climate goal, and put US diplomats in a better position to leverage climate commitments from big polluters such as China and India. The plan is certain to result in political backlash with critics making doomsday claims about the costs of cutting carbon. Coal mining companies, power plant operators and others are already lining up for legal challenges to the executive action, claiming the approach oversteps the EPA’s authority.