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Showing posts with label CNN. Show all posts
Showing posts with label CNN. Show all posts

Tuesday, November 21, 2017

How the Net Dies

Financial Review

How the Net Dies


DOW + 160 = 23,590 (Record)
SPX + 16 = 2599 (Record)
NAS + 71 = 6862 (Record0
RUT + 15 = 1518 (Record)
10 Y – .01 = 2.36%
OIL + .70 = 57.12
GOLD + 4.00 = 1281.00

Cryptocurrency

  • Number of Currencies: 914
  • Total Market Cap: $241,204,261,304
  • 24H Volume: $8,939,291,607

Top Cryptocurrencies

Name Symbol Price USD Market Cap Vol. Total Vol. % Price BTC Chg. % 1D Chg. % 7D
Bitcoin BTC 8,133.4 $135.92B $4.20B 46.93% 1 +0.67% +20.13%
Ethereum ETH 360.70 $34.71B $923.27M 10.33% 0.0443685 +0.24% +7.57%
Bitcoin Cash BCH 1,178.80 $19.88B $737.15M 8.25% 0.14492 +0.64% -7.95%
Ripple XRP 0.23480 $9.03B $209.98M 2.35% 0.00002865 +1.58% +11.73%
Dash DASH 503.22 $3.86B $182.14M 2.04% 0.0613699 +2.15% +16.47%
Litecoin LTC 70.630 $3.80B $228.36M 2.55% 0.00863742 +0.90% +11.70%
IOTA MIOTA 0.89000 $2.52B $123.20M 1.38% 0.00011133 +1.01% +45.73%
NEO NEO 34.600 $2.26B $107.73M 1.21% 0.00426002 +0.95% +16.41%
Monero XMR 141.74 $2.19B $76.82M 0.86% 0.0174976 -0.18% +16.47%
NEM XEM 0.20368 $1.84B $9.07M 0.10% 0.0000251 +0.28% +5.01%

Record high closes for the Dow, S&P, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000. The S&P technology index gained 1.2 percent, helped by a nearly 1.9 percent rise in Apple. The index has risen 38.6 percent this year, by far more than any other sector.

The S&P 500 is up 16.1 percent for the year so far. Healthcare stocks also rose after bullish results from medical device maker Medtronic, whose shares rose 4.8 percent after the company reported better-than-expected results and backed its full-year forecast.

Shares of Urban Outfitters gained 3.7 percent while Hormel Foods was up 3.4 percent. Both reported quarterly results.

Signet Jewelers tanked 30.4 percent after reporting a surprise quarterly loss. Shares of HP fell 4% late Tuesday after the company reported fiscal fourth-quarter earnings and sales above expectations.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise managed to close out its year with an earnings beat Tuesday, but the company’s forecast for the first quarter of its new fiscal year and Chief Executive Meg Whitman’s impending departure sent shares down more than 5%.

Facebook was up more than 1%, but it managed to drop in ranking. Tencent is now valued at $534.5 billion in market capitalization, making it the fifth most valuable public company globally. Facebook falls to number 6.

Goldman Sachs raised its earnings estimate for S&P 500 companies in 2018 and 2019 based on expectations of U.S. corporate tax reform, above-trend global and U.S. economic growth and slowly rising interest rates from a low base.

The Justice Department sued to block AT&T’s planned $85 billion acquisition of Time Warner. The move is unusual because the government does not typically challenge so-called vertical mergers like this one, which do not involve the combination of direct competitors.

The government hasn’t challenged a vertical merger since 1973 in a case involving Fruehauf Corporation, then the nation’s biggest maker of truck trailers. And in that case, an appeals court ruled for Fruehauf.

Many mergers that have sparked criticism for hurting consumers — like those of airlines — have involved direct competitors. But, as the Justice Department alleges in its complaint against AT&T and Time Warner, vertical mergers can arguably raise prices for consumers, too. Guidelines for these types of vertical mergers have not been updated since 1984, and they favor companies that want to merge rather than antitrust regulators.

AT&T will now try to get a court to allow the merger, but there are no guarantees they will prevail. Usually, these problems result in some sort of settlement but that might not happen here. The DOJ had reportedly warned AT&T that it would need to sell either Turner Broadcasting—CNN’s parent company—or DirecTV to receive approval for the merger.

AT&T said that was a non-starter. DOJ then filed suit. And that raises the question of why the Department of Justice is trying to block this case. Many other larger mergers seem to get rubber stamped for approval. Makan Delrahim, the DOJ’s chief antitrust enforcer, publicly stated in 2016 that an AT&T–Time Warner merger would pose no serious legal problems, declaring: “I don’t see this as a major antitrust problem.”

Now he has completely reversed his position. Why the change of heart? Did Delrahim engage in a sincere re-evaluation of the data and doctrines? Or was he acting on pressure from the White House?

The Trump administration’s sudden and selective antitrust enforcement may very well be a front for an unconstitutional effort to punish expression it opposes. AT&T will have ample opportunity to make this objection in court. And if it argues this position persuasively, it may obtain access to government records to prove that Trump’s bias against CNN illegally influenced the DOJ’s antitrust crackdown.

Once again, Trump’s own words may wind up undermining his administration’s legal position in court. Bloomberg reports that AT&T will request access to communications between the White House and the Justice Department regarding the merger, apparently to determine whether Trump exerted improper influence.

If the president did use antitrust as a pretense for penalizing CNN, he likely ran afoul of the First Amendment’s protection against government retaliation for protected expression. Even if AT&T could not find direct evidence of retaliation, any documentation of political motive would fatally undermine the DOJ’s antitrust arguments. Trump’s own comments about Muslims persuaded courts to block his first and second travel bans, holding that his words undermined the legal justifications for both executive orders.

Even more glaringly, Trump’s FCC just eliminated regulations that might have blocked Sinclair Broadcast Group’s proposed merger with Tribune Media. Thanks to the FCC, Sinclair, a vigorously pro-Trump company, will now be able to buy 42 new TV stations, allowing the firm to dominate local media markets in many regions.

In its complaint, the Justice Department argues that AT&T, which already owns DirecTV, would “use its control of Time Warner’s popular programming as a weapon to harm competition.” Specifically, the government argues, AT&T would use the merger to strong-arm its competitors into paying hundreds of millions more per year for Time Warner’s networks. This could ultimately lead to higher bills and fewer options for American families, the Justice Department argues.

The government also alleges that a merged AT&T/Time Warner would have the power to stymie the growth of online TV options that it views as a threat to traditional TV.

Under Trump-appointed chairman Ajit Pai, the FCC plans to repeal net neutrality – the principle that all traffic on the internet is treated equally. Repeal of net neutrality rules would allow internet service providers to favor their own content and block or throttle access to their competitors’ material, a move that could allow a company like AT&T to charge websites a fee to reach users at faster speeds, or even block content.

In other words, the FCC wants to permit what the DOJ purportedly wants to prohibit by blocking the AT&T-Time Warner merger. The move to kill net neutrality is likely to spark a furious battle before the FCC’s vote on the proposals on 14 December. About 21-million comments were submitted to the regulator as it discussed the proposals, and activists have flooded legislators with more than 250,000 calls condemning Pai’s plans. The FCC’s plans will be challenged in court.

Meanwhile, media merger and acquisition activity is probably on hold until this deal is worked out through the courts or some other resolution. Whatever happens – it has suddenly become one of the most interesting and important mergers in years.

The National Association of Realtors says sales of previously-owned homes jumped 2% to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 5.48 million in October. The median sales price was $247,000, up 5.5% from 12 months ago, and October marked the 68th-straight month in which prices rose compared to a year ago. First-time buyers made up 32% of the total, up from 29% in September but still well below long-time averages.

At the current sales pace, it would take 3.9 months to exhaust the available supply of homes, down from 4.4 months a year ago. October’s inventory, when seasonally adjusted, was the second-lowest on record going back to 1999. Inventory declined 3.2% during the month, to 1.80 existing homes. That’s 10.4% lower than a year ago, the 29th month of lower inventory versus the year-earlier period.

NAR expects only a 3.7% increase in existing-home sales in 2018, but continues to warn that the tax reform bills working their way through Congress would “disincentivize” homeownership.

A recent White House report claims that corporate tax cuts would boost the economy and result in GDP growth  of as much as five percentage points. The Initiative on Global Markets at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business asked 42 economists if they agreed or disagreed that GDP – gross domestic product would be “substantially higher” in 10 years if a tax bill like the one congressional Republicans and the White House are pushing is enacted.

Of those 42, only one economist said that cutting corporate tax is likely to grow GDP. Most others — 22 economists — disagreed. Fifteen said they were uncertain and four didn’t answer.

Wednesday, November 08, 2017

Another Sluggish Day on the Street

Charles Schwab: On the Market
Posted: 11/8/2017 4:15 PM EST

Another Sluggish Day on the Street
 
With little in the way of news to sway the U.S. equity markets soundly in one direction or the other, stocks finished with modest gains, led again by the tech sector, after spending most of the day crowding the unchanged mark. Tax reform continued to garner attention as the Senate is expected to deliver its bill this week, while global trade was also in focus as President Trump continues his Asian tour and China posted mixed trade data. Crude oil prices came under pressure following a bearish government oil inventory report and gold was higher. Treasury yields ticked slightly higher and the U.S. dollar was little changed.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) gained 6 points to 23,548, the S&P 500 Index was 4 points (0.1%) higher at 2,594, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 21 points (0.3%) to 6,789. In moderate volume, 881 million shares were traded on the NYSE and 2.1 billion shares changed hands on the Nasdaq. WTI crude oil fell $0.39 to $56.81 per barrel and wholesale gasoline was unchanged at $1.82 per gallon. Elsewhere, the Bloomberg gold spot price was $5.32 higher at $1,280.62 per ounce, and the Dollar Index—a comparison of the U.S. dollar to six major world currencies—was nearly unchanged at 94.88.

Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. (TTWO $118) reported a fiscal Q2 loss of $0.03 per share, or earnings-per-share (EPS) of $1.61 ex-items, versus the FactSet estimate calling for EPS of $0.74, as net bookings grew 20.3% year-over-year (y/y) to $577 million, above the expected $516 million. The video game company raised its full-year outlook and issued net bookings guidance for the holiday season that easily topped expectations. Shares were sharply higher.

Humana Inc. (HUM $243) posted Q3 profits of $3.44 per share, or $3.39 ex-items, compared to the forecasted $3.26, on revenues of $13.3 billion, roughly in line with expectations, but premiums were a bit shy of expectations. HUM raised its full-year earnings outlook but offered little in terms of guidance for next year. Shares were sharply lower.

Snap Inc. (SNAP $13) announced a Q3 loss of $0.36 per share, compared to the $0.33 per share shortfall that the Street had anticipated, with revenues rising 62.0% y/y to $208 million, below the projected $236 million. The social media company's global daily active users and average revenue per user both missed expectations. Shares fell sharply. Separately, SNAP disclosed that China's Tencent Holdings Ltd. (TCEHY $50) has taken a 10% stake in the company.

Wendy's Co. (WEN $15) reported Q3 EPS of $0.06, or $0.09 ex-items, versus the projected $0.12, as revenues declined 15.4% y/y to $308 million, just shy of the expected $310 million, due to lower ownership of company-operated restaurants. The fast-food chain's North American same-store sales rose 2.0% y/y, south of the estimated 2.6% gain. WEN lowered its full-year profit outlook and shares were solidly lower.

Mortgage applications flat

The MBA Mortgage Application Index was flat last week, following the prior week's 2.6% decline. The unchanged reading came as a 0.5% decrease in the Refinance Index was offset by a 0.5% gain in the Purchase Index. The average 30-year mortgage rate fell 4 basis points (bps) to 4.18%.
Treasuries dipped, as the yields on the 2-year and 10-year notes, along with the 30-year bond, all inched 1 bp higher to 1.64%, 2.32% and 2.79%, respectively.

Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar remained subdued as a positive global economic backdrop continues to be met with looming Fed leadership changes, and market grappling with uncertainty regarding the long road to tax reform.

Schwab's Chief Investment Strategist Liz Ann Sonders notes in her latest article, One Thing Leads to Another: Productivity's Rebound, although there remains a long runway between the House bill put forth on tax reform and a bill that could pass through the Senate, a more competitive tax code would likely grow the capital stock, which should boost productivity.

Schwab's Chief Fixed Income Strategist Kathy Jones and Vice President of Trading and Derivatives, Randy Frederick discuss in the video, Should a Change in Fed Leadership Matter to Investors?, while Schwab's Vice President of Legislative and Regulatory Affairs, Michael T. Townsend offers his latest commentary, House Tax Reform Bill: What Investors Need to Know.

Tomorrow's economic calendar will remain light, beginning with weekly initial jobless claims, forecasted to rise modestly to 232,000 from the prior week's 229,000, followed by wholesale inventories, with economists expecting a 0.3% month-over-month increase for September, matching that seen in August.

Europe and Asia mixed on global trade focus and U.S. tax reform uncertainty
European equities finished mixed, with banking stocks being hamstrung by disappointing quarterly results from the sector in the region. The markets also grappled with global trade uncertainty as U.S. President Donald Trump remained on his tour of Asia and China posted a mixed trade report. U.S. tax reform scrutiny festered to keep conviction in check. The euro was little changed, while the British pound added to recent losses versus the U.S. dollar. Bond yields in the region traded mixed. In economic news, Spanish industrial output for September came in stronger than expected. With the global markets pausing from their rally, Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders and Randy Frederick note in the video, Tracking Sentiment: Are Investors Too Optimistic About Stocks?, that there seems to be no end in sight to the bull market in equities, but that doesn’t mean there’s nothing to worry about.

Stocks in Asia finished mixed as the markets focus on global trade relations as U.S. President Trump continued his tour of the region and as China's October trade data painted a divergent picture as exports missed expectations and imports continued to rise solidly. For a look at the global trade picture, Schwab's Chief Global Investment Strategist Jeffrey Kleintop, CFA, offers his article, Top Five Trade Issues Investors Should Be Watching. Japanese equities dipped, with the yen gaining some ground, while Australian securities finished flat. Mainland Chinese stocks ticked higher and those traded in Hong Kong declined, while listings in India were also lower and South Korean markets saw a modest gain.

More data from China will take center stage on tomorrow's international economic calendar, including the Asian nation's CPI, PPI, and lending statistics, while Germany and the U.K. will report trade figures.

Saturday, February 25, 2017

Shut Up

Financial Review

Shut Up


DOW + 11 = 20,821
SPX + 3 = 2367
NAS + 9 = 5845
RUT – 0.1 = 1394
10 Y – .07 = 2.32%
OIL – .42 = 54.03
GOLD + 7.60 = 1257.90

11 days of record breaking closes, the best streak of positive sessions since 1993. The longest streak of record breaking sessions is 14 in a row – back in 1897.

For most of the day, the major indices were in negative territory; Dow futures dropped more than 100 points early in the morning, and then, in the final 17 seconds, buyers jumped in again. The Dow Industrial Average is up more than1,000 points since January 1 and almost 3,000 points since the election.

This was the third up week in a row for the Dow, and the fifth straight positive week for the S&P and Nasdaq. The 10-year Treasury note has its best week since last June. Gold is up 8 of the last 9 weeks and at its highest level since October.

In economic news, U.S. new home sales rose 3.7 percent in January, below the expected increase of 6.3 percent. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment in the U.S. hit 96.3 in February, slightly above an estimate of 96. Earnings season, which is coming to an end, has been much stronger than anticipated.

Per Thomson Reuters, fourth quarter earnings growth is tracking about 7.5%. It seems US equity funds are where the world is parking its money for the time being, with over $25 billion coming into market coffers since January 1.

President Trump spoke before the Conservative Political Action Committee today, and he ramped up his attack against the news media, charging that “fake news” outlets are “the enemy of the people.” And later in the day, the White House fired a shot across the bow, blocking CNN, the New York Times, the Los Angeles Times, Politico and BuzzFeed from an off-camera White House press briefing conducted by White House press secretary Sean Spicer.

The Associated Press and Time magazine boycotted the briefing because of how it was handled. The White House Correspondents Association also protested the move.

Spicer only allowed in reporters from a handpicked group of news organizations that, the White House said, had been previously confirmed. The press session, known as a gaggle, was scheduled as a no-camera event, less formal than his usual briefings that are carried live on cable news. But past administrations have not hand-selected outlets that can attend such sessions.

Two of the barred outlets, CNN and The Times, have been a focus of Mr. Trump’s ire. And during the presidential campaign, some journalists from BuzzFeed News and Politico were prohibited from attending Trump rallies. Representatives of the barred news organizations made clear that they believed the White House’s actions were punitive.

Oil investors have placed the biggest bet in history that prices will rise. Fund managers now hold more Brent oil futures and options contracts than at any time on record, equivalent to some 480 million barrels of oil and nearly double the amount held just two months ago.

The Brent April contract now commands a premium of $1.50 over the December 2018, a condition known as backwardation. Crude inventories held in the world’s richest nations are still high, but they have begun to drain, and traders expect demand for oil to improve to the point where it overtakes supply.

Meanwhile, industry executives, analysts and investors sizing up Saudi Aramco say it may be worth nowhere near the $2 trillion that’s been touted. For example, Wood Mackenzie came up with a rough valuation of Aramco’s core business of $400 billion.

While that is significantly more than Exxon Mobil, with a market cap just under $340 billion; it is not enough to provide the capital the Saudis require to run the national budget. That’s just a guess at valuation because Saudi Aramco has never revealed financial statements.

For the Saudis, the writing is on the wall. Demand for oil will peak in the next 10 to 12 years, according to Royal Dutch Shell projections, as alternative fuels and electric cars gain popularity, putting Middle East energy producers on shakier footing.

Saudi Aramco valuations are premised on a simple calculation: Take the 261 billion barrels of reserves Saudi Arabia says lie under oil fields, and multiply by $8 (a benchmark used to value reserves). By that logic, though, Russian producer Rosneft’s market capitalization would be $272 billion instead of $64 billion, and the valuation of Exxon Mobil would be 53 percent smaller than it is.

Another factor for valuation – those reserves might not be all that they’re cracked up to be. Consider that Exxon Mobil just lost 4.3 billion barrels of reserves this week. Not lost really, just removed from their books. The reserves are still under the ground and controlled by Exxon Mobil but for accounting purposes, they no longer meet the SEC’s criteria for being economic to produce anytime soon, chiefly because oil prices have collapsed. Higher prices could push those reserves back onto the books, but lower demand could keep prices much lower for much longer.

Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods (he’s the guy who replaced Rex Tillerson) – Woods is calling for a nationwide carbon tax to discourage use of polluting fuels. In a blog post, Woods writes: It “would promote greater energy efficiency and the use of today’s lower-carbon options, avoid further burdening the economy, and provide incentives for markets to develop additional low-carbon energy solutions for the future.”

In a memo signed Feb. 21 but published late on Thursday, US Attorney General Jeff Sessions rescinded a six-month-old order that was to phase out the use of private prisons by the federal government. CoreCivic and Geo Group, two of the largest for-profit prison operators, both rose in after-hours trading. The companies have more than recovered the steep losses their shares suffered after the former administration’s September directive.

JC Penney will shutter two distribution centers and 130 to 140 stores. The closures announced Friday represent 13% to 14% of the company’s store portfolio, less than 5% of total annual sales and 0% of net income. The company is starting an early retirement program for about 6,000 eligible associates. Chief Executive Marvin Ellison said closing stores will allow Penney to adjust its business to “effectively compete against the growing threat of online retailers.”

Department store operators Kohl’s and Macy’s are betting on a potential money-spinner – carving out prime space within their sprawling stores and leasing them to other retailers. The move underscores the pressing need for the two chains to better monetize their real estate assets at a time when fewer people are visiting malls.

Meanwhile, retailers have been lobbying against a border-tax proposal that would increase the tax bite on any company that imports goods into the US. Retailers would be among the biggest losers if such a proposal were implemented in full, as much of their sales are of imported goods.

Retailers and other critics say the planned 20 percent tax on imports could be passed along in higher prices to consumers, including manufacturers that rely on imported goods to make their products. Some critics have warned of a potential global trade war which would sharply curtail US and world economic growth.

Advocates say U.S. exporters will gain as their revenues will be excluded from federal taxes. They say the tax on imports will encourage domestic production and cause the already strong dollar to rise, offsetting upward pressure on import prices. Yesterday, Trump spoke positively about a border-tax.

Today, Gary Cohn, the president’s chief economic adviser, told a group of executives at a private event in Washington that the White House does not support this initiative. If the administration can’t find unanimity in a tax plan, imagine what happens when an actual plan is subjected to public scrutiny.

Royal Bank of Scotland reported a sharp rise in losses, $8.8 billion for the full-year, marked by higher legal penalties and restructuring costs. RBS took charges to set aside money to cover legal cases in the US where analysts expect it to pay the biggest regulatory penalty in its history for mis-selling US securities backed by toxic mortgage loans.

RBS was the only British lender to fail the Bank of England’s stress test in 2016. The British government, which owns more than 70 percent of RBS, has said it will not resume selling its stake until the bank settles its US fine and resolves its state aid requirements.

MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates has agreed to buy US-based DigitalGlobe for about $2.4 billion to strengthen its position in the satellite imagery market.

China’s state-owned Sinochem is in early talks to buy an equity stake in Noble Group. And now, Iceberg Research has issued critical report that raises concerns about Noble’s accounting practices, claiming the commodity firm is not worth its book value. Noble shares are down about 17% on the news.

Google and Uber started off as friends, then became competitors, and are now adversaries in a bitter legal fight to control the future of transportation. Waymo, the Google self-driving-car group, has accused Uber of using stolen technology to advance its own autonomous-car development. Google filed a lawsuit, claiming that a team of ex-Google engineers stole the company’s design for the lidar laser sensor that allows self-driving cars to map the environment around them.

A software bug leaked encrypted personal data from hundreds of thousands of web-pages hosted by Cloudflare. The company said the bug was fixed quickly and there was no sign that the leak was exploited by hackers.

Foot Locker reported better-than-expected earnings in the fourth quarter despite a slowdown in the retail industry. Same store sales were up 5%, topping expectations.

HP Enterprise’s revenues drops 10%. Sales fell in the first quarter, which ended January 31, with sluggish demand for its storage equipment and servers.

Samsung Electronics is tightening board oversight on donations, as the conglomerate struggles with the fallout from a graft scandal. The flagship of South Korea’s top conglomerate Samsung Group has been at the center of an influence-peddling scandal that led South Korea’s parliament to impeach President Park Geun-hye in December.

Jay Y. Lee, leader of Samsung Group and Samsung Electronics’ vice chairman, was arrested last week after being named a suspect by the South Korean special prosecutor’s office. The Samsung board of directors will now vote on any financial payment of $886,000 or more and disclose any such payments publicly.