Charles Schwab: On the MarketPosted: 6/24/2016 4:15 PM ET
Stocks Go So Low as U.K. Sets To Depart EU
U.S. stocks erased 2016's gains, joining a global rout for equities and the British pound traded to lows not seen in more than 30 years in the wake of the U.K. voting to leave the European Union. Financial and Technology stocks were the largest decliners, while the aftermath of the Brexit vote made it difficult to assess the possible market impact of lower-than-expected reads on domestic durable goods orders and consumer sentiment. Treasuries, gold and the U.S. dollar rallied and crude oil prices experienced a large, sharp drop.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) tumbled 611 points (3.4%) to 17,400, the S&P 500 Index fell 76 points (3.6%) to 2,037, and the Nasdaq Composite plummeted 202 points (4.1%) to 4,708. In heavy volume, 2.5 billion shares were traded on the NYSE and 3.8 billion shares changed hands on the Nasdaq. WTI crude oil dropped $2.47 to $47.64 per barrel and wholesale gasoline was $0.07 lower at $1.54 per gallon, while the Bloomberg gold spot price rallied $62.56 to $1,319.41 per ounce. Elsewhere, the Dollar Index—a comparison of the U.S. dollar to six major world currencies—jumped 2.1% to 95.50. Markets were lower for the week, as the DJIA and the S&P 500 Index decreased 1.6% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.9%.
Xerox Corp. (XRX $9) announced Jeff Jacobson will be the company's new Chief Executive Officer once the organization divides into two separate publicly-traded companies. The document solutions company said the split remains on track for the end of the year. Earlier in the month, XRX named Ashok Vemuri as the CEO of the smaller of the two companies, which will be named Conduent. XRX lost ground.
Sonic Corp. (SONC $28) posted fiscal 3Q EPS ex-items of $0.43, a penny above the FactSet estimate, as revenues rose 18.0% y/y to $165.2 million, compared to the projected $164.7 million. Same-store sales rose 2.0% year-over-year, below analysts' view of a 2.4% y/y increase. The drive-in burger chain said it now expects same-store sales for the year to increase 2%-4%, below previous projections of 6%, but it maintained its earnings growth forecast of 20%-25%. Shares closed sharply lower.
Durable goods orders lower than forecasts, consumer sentiment ticks lower
May preliminary durable goods orders (chart) fell 2.2% month-over-month (m/m), compared to Bloomberg's estimate of a 0.8% decline and April's upwardly revised 3.3% gain. Ex-transportation, orders declined 0.3% m/m, versus the 0.1% forecasted increase, and April's unrevised 0.5% gain. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, considered a proxy for business spending, declined 0.7%, compared to projections of a 0.4% increase, and following the upwardly revised 0.4% dip in the month prior.
The final June University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (chart) was revised to 93.5 from the preliminary level of 94.3, and compared to expectations of a slight dip to 94.1, as the expectations and current conditions components of the report were both revised downward. The index was also lower compared to May's level of 94.7, where it sat at the highest level since June 2015. The 1-year inflation outlook rose to 2.6%, from May's 2.8% rate. The 5-10 year inflation forecast also moved higher to 2.6% from May's 2.3% level.
Treasuries were decidedly higher, with the yields on the 2-year note and the 30-year bond falling 13 basis points (bps) to 0.64% and 2.43%, respectively, while the yield on the 10-year note lost 17 bps to 1.57%. For our latest analysis on the bond markets see the article by Schwab's Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Kathy Jones, titled Global Bonds: A World Without Yield, at www.schwab.com/marketinsight, while you can also follow Kathy on Twitter: @kathyjones.
U.K. vote shocks world, markets in Europe and Asia plunge
European equities finished deep in the red, after the U.K.'s stunning vote to leave the European Union (EU)—known as a Brexit—after four decades sent shockwaves through the global markets—a complete about-face from yesterday's optimism that the U.K. would vote to remain in the EU. The final vote tally was 52% for an exit, 48% against—a close election, as many had expected, however not the outcome that investors had banked on yesterday. In the wake of the results, Prime Minister David Cameron stepped down, saying, "The British people have made a very clear decision to take a different path, and as such I think the country requires fresh leadership." Cameron said he will remain at 10 Downing Street for the next three months, with a new Conservative leader to be appointed by October.
Financials were in the eye of the storm, with the European bank index falling the most ever, while the British pound tumbled to touch a level not seen in over 30 years. Amidst the turmoil, and following Cameron's announcement, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Carney issued an early-morning statement, saying the BoE will pledge 250 billion pounds ($345 billion) to the financial system in what he called, "a period of uncertainty and adjustment." The BoE had previously supplemented funding auctions this month for lenders. Meanwhile, central banks across the globe have shifted to crisis-management mode, as the Swiss National Bank intervened in order to prevent a surge in the franc, the European Central Bank (ECB) said it stands ready to provide liquidity in euros or other currencies, and Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda said the central bank will do its best to provide cash.
Schwab's Chief Global Investment Strategist, Jeffrey Kleintop, CFA, offers in depth analysis of the vote in his timely article After the Brexit Vote: What Lies Ahead for Markets?, at www.schwab.com/marketinsight, and be sure to follow Jeff on Twitter: @jeffreykleintop. Economic news in the region took a backseat to the developments surrounding the Brexit, with France's final GDP data unrevised from previous reports, Italy's retail sales rising less than expectations and Germany's Ifo Business Climate Index was slightly better than forecasts. The euro pared solid early losses, but did finish firmly lower versus the U.S. dollar, while bond yields in the region were negative.
Stocks in Asia finished sharply lower, being the first to react to the decision by the U.K. to quit the European Union, with Japanese equities posting their largest decline in more than 15 years, and triggering a circuit-breaker on Nikkei futures. Japan's Nikkei 225 Index tumbled 7.9%, with the yen surging against its foreign counterparts. Stocks in mainland China lost ground, but were somewhat insulated from the fray after policymakers in the nation championed their management of corporate debt, saying that defaults would not pose a systemic threat as long as the economy continues to be within an acceptable range. Meanwhile, securities trading in Hong Kong snapped a five-session winning streak, while equities in Australia, India and South Korea were sharply lower.
The U.K. has left the building
Stocks finished lower for the week as gains were wiped out early Friday morning on the heels of the U.K.'s highly anticipated vote, where it decided it will exit the European Union. As noted in the recent Schwab Market Perspective: British Shock—What's Next, Britain shocked the financial community and global equity markets plunged as traders searched for perceived safety in the midst of uncertainty. Since the end of the financial-crisis induced global recession in 2009, a series of shocks have helped to keep growth, inflation and stock market performance subdued. The shocks that have taken place in Japan, United States, and Europe may offer us some insight as to the potential duration of the market impact of Brexit. Read more at www.schwab.com/marketinsight.
The added uncertainty from the long awaited Brexit vote seemed to disproportionately increase the volatility in the financials sector. Schwab's Director of Market and Sector Analysis, Brad Sorensen, CFA, takes a deeper dive into some of the factors that most influence the performance of this sector in his recent Schwab Sector Views: Financials: Danger or Opportunity?. Brad notes that the financials sector has been under attack by politicians and unloved by investors since the financial crisis, resulting in some very volatile performance. He also hints at the heavy regulatory burden placed on the financials sector over the past several years. But there are some glimmers of hope here as well. Despite the heated political rhetoric being leveled against the financials sector, there does seem to be an increasing realization that the regulations may have gone too far and had unintended consequences. Read more at www.schwab.com/marketinsight and follow Schwab on Twitter: @schwabresearch.
Heavy dose of manufacturing data ahead
Next week, the U.S. economic calendar will deliver a look at the health of the manufacturing sector of the economy with the release of the ISM Manufacturing Index, Markit's final Manufacturing PMI for June, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index. Also, the third and final read for 1Q GDP will be released, with economic output expected to have ticked higher to a 1.0% quarter/quarter annualized rate of expansion, from the 0.8% pace announced in the second release.
Other U.S. reports slated for next week include: Markit's preliminary Composite PMI for June, the Chicago PMI Index, the S&P/Case-Schiller Home Price Index, the Consumer Confidence Index, pending home sales, personal income and spending, construction spending and vehicle sales.
Next week's international reports: Japan—retail sales, industrial production, CPI, vehicle production, housing starts and 2Q Tankan Index. China—manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs, industrial profits and the Leading Index. Hong Kong—retail sales and trade data. U.K.—1Q GDP, consumer credit and 1Q business investment. Germany—GfK Consumer Confidence, national and regional CPIs and retail sales. France—1Q GDP, PPI, CPI and consumer spending. Eurozone—consumer confidence and CPI.