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Thursday, September 10, 2015

Justice Deterred

Financial Review

Justice Deterred

DOW + 76 = 16,330
SPX + 10 = 1952
NAS + 39 = 4796
10 YR YLD + .04 = 2.22%
OIL + 1.51 = 45.66
GOLD + 5.10 = 1111.90
SILV + .10 = 14.81

Wholesale inventories decreased by 0.1% in July, while wholesale sales dropped 0.3%. At July’s sales pace, the inventory-to-sales ratio was unchanged at 1.30 months.

The number of Americans getting laid off from their jobs remains near the lowest level in decades. Initial jobless claims fell by 6,000 to 275,000 in the period running from Aug. 30 to Sep. 5. New claims have been under the key 300,000 level for 27 straight weeks. The last time the pace of layoffs was even lower for such a long stretch was in 1973.

The prices the U.S. paid for imported goods fell by 1.8% in August, marking the biggest decline since the start of the year. Oil prices fell sharply again and strong dollar has also made foreign products cheaper for Americans to buy. Excluding fuel, U.S. import prices declined by a 0.4% last month. Meanwhile, the price of U.S.-made goods exported to other nations dropped 1.4%.

Mortgage rates were little changed ahead of the Federal Reserve’s key rate decision next week. Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said the 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 3.90% in the week ending Sept. 10, up from 3.89%. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.10%.

Oil prices rallied today.  Energy Information Administration data showed demand for gasoline over the latest four-week period was up almost 4 percent from a year ago, bullish for late-summer consumption of the motor fuel. Gasoline inventories, meanwhile, rose just about half of expected levels last week. Crude oil stockpiles rose nearly 2.6 million barrels last week, more than double expectations. Bottom line, when gas prices are low, we tend to take road trips.

Standard & Poor’s has cut Brazil’s investment-grade credit rating to junk for the first time since 2008, warning that it could lower the grade again in the coming months. The agency pointed to political challenges that are putting a balanced budget at risk as a reason for lowering the rating to BB+. Fitch and Moody’s still have Brazil at investment grade – for now – but if either one follows suit, as the country’s situation rapidly degrades, it would trigger massive cash outflows from pension funds.

The Justice Department is renewing its efforts to charge individuals in corporate investigations. Justice Department officials issued a memo Wednesday to prosecutors outlining best practices and recommending that they only consider a company to have cooperated in an investigation if that company turns over information about the actions of individuals at the firm, “regardless of their position, status or seniority.” And this is not first time the DOJ has tried this scheme. In 2014, then-Attorney General Eric Holder announced that “no company was too big to jail”, and of course since that declaration, no company has been jailed.

The new memo, released by Deputy Attorney General Sally Yates, claims that this new direction “deters future illegal activity, it incentivizes change in future corporate behavior”. This was a point emphasized by Matthew Schwartz, a former prosecutor at the United States attorney’s office in Manhattan who told the New York Times: “The main reason you bring these cases is to send messages to the business community”.

However, they are both wrong; the main reason to seek criminal charges and incarcerate criminals is to punish them, next on the list is deterrence, followed by rehabilitation. That has been the Department of Justice’s longstanding guideline. In fact, in a speech by then-AG Holder in August of 2013, he said “we need to ensure that incarceration is used to punish, deter, and rehabilitate”. It may seem a subtle distinction, but the difference in priorities is huge; especially because it confirms that we have a two-tiered system of justice: one for bankers, and the other for everyone else.

Of course punishment has never been the DOJ’s guideline when dealing with bankers. For many years AG Holder subscribed to the idea of going easy on the banks; it came to be known as the Holder Doctrine, which stems from his now-famous June 1999 memorandum — when he was deputy attorney general — that included the thought that big financial settlements may be preferable to criminal convictions because a criminal conviction often carries severe unintended consequences, like loss of jobs and the inability to continue as a going concern.

The new memo seems to say that the plan is to talk tough in the hope of deterring illegal activity. The memo says “To be eligible for any cooperation credit, corporations must provide to the Department all relevant facts about the individuals involved in corporate misconduct.” In other words, identify your rogue traders and low-level scapegoats before you try to cut a deal. In fact, the memo goes to great lengths to explain how it is so very, very difficult to bring a case against individuals and especially against executives.

Also, the memo seems to forget the idea from Holder that “no company is too big to jail”. If you want a deterrent effect, how about the idea that a corporate charter can be revoked; imagine if JPMorgan or Goldman Sachs faced the prospect of losing their charter for their crimes; that might prompt directors and officers and shareholders to think twice. Of course that will never happen; the banks really are too big to fail, and nothing has been done in the last 7 years to change that fact.

Since 2009, 49 financial institutions have paid various government entities and private plaintiffs nearly $190 billion in fines and settlements, according to an analysis by the investment bank Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. That may seem like a big number, but the money has come from shareholders, paid out as corporate expenses, and in some cases, tax deductible. For the banks, justice is just a check that somebody else has to write; not much deterrence there.

Wall Street has assumed control over the government, its agencies, and our legal system. The DOJ says it will increase its efforts in deterring Wall Street crime. Forgive me if I seem skeptical.

Meanwhile, New York regulators have sent letters seeking information to big banks that are primary Treasury dealers as part of a probe into the potential manipulation of bond auctions. The banks – including Barclays, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, Societe Generale, and Credit Suisse – aren’t charged with specific wrongdoing at the moment, as the investigation is still in its early stages. Boston’s public employee pension fund, State-Boston Retirement System, sued 22 primary dealers in July alleging conspiracy to manipulate Treasury auctions.

Companies raised $28 billion of investment-grade bonds in U.S. markets yesterday as the corporate-debt market roared back to life after a three-week hiatus that was partly due to worries about China. Nineteen companies issued debt, including Gilead Sciences with a $10 billion deal, home-improvement retailer Lowe’s and hotelier Marriott International. Overall, firms have sold $1.2 trillion worth of new debt in the U.S. this year, including junk-rated paper, putting the market on course to set a record for a fourth consecutive year.

XPO Logistics has agreed to acquire trucking and logistics company Con-Way for $3 billion including debt. The agreement is the latest in a string of transactions that have helped XPO grow into a major player in the global logistics market: since 2011, the company has completed at least 14 mergers and increased its revenue to a projected $6.7 billion this year from $177 million.

Bombardier surged 24% in Toronto yesterday, the most in a single day since 1988, amid growing optimism over the potential value of the company’s rail unit and the sales prospects for the firm’s CSeries jet. According to earlier reports, Bombardier rejected a bid by Beijing Infrastructure Investment for 60%-100% of Bombardier Transportation that gave the business an enterprise value of as much as $8 billion.

Ikea’s sales climbed 11% to €31.9 billion-euro in the year to August as the world’s largest furniture retailer enjoyed strong growth across different regions. “China remained the fastest-growing Ikea Group market, followed by Russia,” Ikea said. “Germany showed record growth and North America performed well. Also south Europe demonstrated positive progress.” The Swedish retailer aims to earn annual revenue of €50-billion-euro by 2020.

Dell intends to invest $125 billion in China over the next five years as the world’s third-largest computer manufacturer continues its expansion in the country. CEO Michael Dell said, “Dell will embrace the principle of ‘In China, for China’ and closely integrate Dell China strategies with national policies”. The plan includes strengthening the company’s research and development team in the country.

A new visitors’ center and museum opens today at the Flight 93 National Memorial in western Pennsylvania, one day before the anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks. Fourteen years after the 40 people on board the hijacked United Airlines flight forced the plane into the ground as terrorists aimed it toward Washington, their story is on display for the hundreds of thousands of visitors who come to central Pennsylvania, near a town called Shanksville, each year to visit the Flight 93 National Memorial. Much of the visitors’ center deals with the final 35 minutes of the flight, as passengers fought the hijackers and the crew tried to keep control of the flight. The field has become a full-fledged national monument, financed by a public-private partnership and operated by the National Park Service.

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