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Rainbows over Canyonlands - Dave Stoker

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Showing posts with label arbitration. Show all posts
Showing posts with label arbitration. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 25, 2017

Ain’t That a Shame

Financial Review

Ain’t That a Shame


DOW – 112 = 23,329
SPX – 11 = 2557
NAS – 34 = 6563
RUT – 6 = 1493
10 Y + .04 = 2.44%
OIL – .30 = 52.17
GOLD + .90 = 1278.20

Cryptocurrency

  • Number of Currencies: 877
  • Total Market Cap: $169,285,401,598
  • 24H Volume: $3,480,700,406

Top Cryptocurrencies

  Name Symbol Price USD Market Cap Vol. Total Vol. % Price BTC Chg. % 1D Chg. % 7D
  Bitcoin BTC 5,724.2 $95.79B $1.96B 56.46% 1 +3.89% +3.75%
  Ethereum ETH 295.25 $28.50B $324.79M 9.35% 0.0521385 -0.35% -3.81%
  Ripple XRP 0.20140 $7.89B $75.54M 2.17% 0.00003573 -0.90% -4.77%
  Bitcoin Cash BCH 328.42 $5.56B $151.70M 4.37% 0.0579792 +1.87% -0.16%
  Litecoin LTC 56.330 $3.03B $114.68M 3.30% 0.00985888 +1.29% -5.54%
  Dash DASH 287.59 $2.21B $43.80M 1.26% 0.0504281 -0.88% -2.25%
  NEM XEM 0.20435 $1.86B $4.19M 0.12% 0.00003598 +0.22% -5.94%
  BitConnect BCC 206.31 $1.51B $16.86M 0.49% 0.0359821 +6.59% +6.15%
  NEO NEO 28.650 $1.43B $35.32M 1.02% 0.00498411 -4.06% -2.93%
  Monero XMR 87.90 $1.34B $59.61M 1.72% 0.0153379 -0.63% -1.22%

The Dow and S&P 500 suffering their worst day in seven weeks. Even though overall earnings results have been beating estimates, we had a string of disappointments today.

Burrito chain Chipotle and chip maker AMD (that’s computer chips – not chips and salsa) were the S&P 500’s two biggest losers. Chipotle posted weaker-than-expected earnings late Tuesday, sinking 15%, while AMD’s results beat expectations, but investors seemed more concerned about the company’s outlook, which may not have been as strong as hoped. AMD shares dropped 13%.

Well, that’s how it goes during earnings reporting season. Yesterday investors cheered the early results from third-quarter corporate earnings, equity investors had a change of heart. Third quarter earnings are not expected to shine; with consensus forecasts of profit growth coming in at less than half the 10 percent or so seen in the first two quarters of 2017.

As we move through earnings – pay attention to guidance. The actual earnings have already happened. The market tries to look to the future.

Amgen reported higher-than-expected third quarter profit as lower research and other costs and improved operating margins helped offset sales declines in some of its biggest established products. The world’s largest biotechnology company also raised its full-year adjusted earnings forecast.

Nike posted its weakest quarterly sales growth in nearly seven years in September. Nike said it expects earnings per share to grow in the mid-teens over the next five years, driven by online sales and new product categories, sending its shares up by about three percent. The stock was the top gainer on the Dow today.

Coca-Cola topped profit and revenue estimates for the third quarter on a 3 percent rise in North American sales, gaining market share over arch rival Pepsi. Over the course of several years, both companies have shifted their strategy, focusing on selling low-calorie versions of their colas and buying healthier beverage brands, as consumers move away from sugary sodas.

But Coke seems to be winning the so-called cola-wars by adopting a more aggressive approach to selling juices, teas and vitamin water and taking the lead on franchising its bottling operations to cut costs.

Boeing racked up a further $329 million charge for its troubled KC-46 aerial refueling tanker program. Boeing raised its full-year earnings and cash flow forecasts as it beat third-quarter earnings estimates and reported higher margins in its main commercial airlines segment and overall business.

But the new charge on the air tanker, which some analysts had speculated could return to haunt Boeing despite assurances to the contrary in April, meant the program has now lopped a total of about $1.9 billion off the company’s net income after tax. Boeing share dropped about 4%.

Durable-goods orders 
rose 2.2% in September. Excluding transportation orders increased 0.7%. Business investment advanced 1.3% for the third month in a row, based on a closely followed measure known as core capital-goods orders. These orders have climbed 7.8% in the past year, the fastest pace since early 2012. The rise in orders last month was concentrated in commercial aircraft, military hardware and electronics.

New-home sales ran at a 667,000 annual pace in September, an 18.9% increase compared with August, and a 17% increase compared with a year ago. This is one of those economic reports that tends to include month-to-month static. For the year to date, sales are 8.6% higher compared to the same period last year.

In September, the median sale price was $319,700, compared to $314,700 a year ago. At the current sales pace, it would take 5 months to exhaust all available supply. More homes are crucial for a market starved for inventory.

Tomorrow, the European Central Bank unveils its plan to scale back purchases of bonds under its quantitative easing program. The consensus is that monthly bond purchases will be cut in half to 30 billion euros ($35 billion) for most of next year. So, any amount that differs from that number is likely to roil markets. Investors will also be listening for President Mario Draghi’s comments on the future path of interest rates.

Nobody expects the ECB’s Governing Council to announce a rate hike tomorrow, suggesting that the central bank is likely to reiterate that rates will “remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of our net asset purchases.” The longer the QE horizon the stronger the guidance will be, but a rate hike is unlikely before mid-2019 regardless of whether QE is extended for six or nine months.

Legislation to fund cost-sharing reduction payments – or CSRs – to health insurers would save the U.S. government $3.8 billion over a decade – that, according to a new analysis from the Congressional Budget Office. Trump signed an executive order to cut off CSR funding this month, citing concerns about their legality.

The CBO score of the bill may improve passage odds for the bipartisan legislation authored by Sens. Lamar Alexander, a Tennessee Republican, and Patty Murray, a Washington Democrat. The bill would reinstate cost-sharing reduction payments owed to insurers for lowering deductibles for the next two years.

It would also allow more customers to purchase a cheaper high-deductible plan and make some small changes in the way states can apply for federal waivers to tweak their health care system. Insurers have already signed contracts to offer plans with significantly higher premiums in 2018 in response to the White House’s ambiguity on CSR payments.

The CBO previously found that ending CSR payments permanently would increase deficits by $194 billion over a decade, since insurers would raise premiums for Obamacare exchange plans by 20 percent in response and the government would have to spend more on subsidies to help customers pay them. The savings are lower in the new Alexander-Murray score largely because it uses a baseline that assumes the CSR payments will be made.

Also tomorrow, The House of Representative is slated to vote to formally back the Senate’s budget resolution, fast-tracking the GOP’s effort to advance a tax overhaul with a simple majority in the Senate. With passage, Republicans would unlock the powerful legislative tool known as reconciliation, which replaces the Senate’s 60-vote threshold with a simple majority in some circumstances.

Opposition from some moderate House Republicans to a proposal that would abolish state and local tax deductions is inserting some last-minute drama. Bloomberg reports Representative Tom MacArthur of New Jersey said he thinks there are more than 20 House Republicans who would vote against a key budget resolution, if a “reasonable” compromise isn’t reached on preserving the state and local tax break in some form.

MacArthur added that he didn’t think the House should hold its scheduled vote on the budget Thursday unless an agreement on the so-called SALT deduction has been reached. House GOP members concerned about the break are supposed to meet with Republican leaders this evening.

House Republicans hold 239 seats and need 217 votes to adopt the budget — a critical step to passing tax changes without Democratic support. That means 23 defections could sink the budget resolution — assuming no absences or Democratic support.

When it comes to tax reform, SALT (or state and local tax) deductions may be just one of many stumbling blocks. Once Obamacare repeal failed, the only major item on Republicans’ agenda for the rest of the year was supposed to be tax reform.

But then Trump announced his administration planned to sunset the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, and that it would end the Affordable Care Act’s subsidy payments, a move that will increase premiums for Americans and dig a deeper hole in the national deficit. Congress also keeps putting off negotiations on key policies, like the now-expired federal Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP). With so many policy deadlines, the possibility of a shutdown can’t be dismissed.

In the final hours of Tuesday night, the Senate voted to nullify a rule that would’ve allowed customers of banks, credit-card companies, and other financial institutions to join together in class-action lawsuits if they felt they’d been wronged.

The rule—which was introduced in July by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), but was not yet in effect—would have prevented financial institutions from forcing customers with legal grievances to resolve them out of court with the company’s lawyers, in a process called arbitration.

Buried in the fine print for credit card applications and banks accounts and such is a clause that requires consumers to submit to arbitration if there is a problem. But the problem for consumers is that arbitration can be cumbersome and costly. The mandatory arbitration clauses allow companies to avoid accountability by blocking group lawsuits and forcing people to go it alone or give up.

The Senate’s nullification of the rule came about even as recent major financial-industry scandals have harmed consumers. Wells Fargo, even with its fake-account and auto-lending scandals, utilized mandatory-arbitration clauses in some of the agreements they have customers sign.

The nullification of the CFPB’s rule means that people who suffered financial harm or identity theft as a result of either of these large companies’ lapses may not have the right to take them to court. It was a huge win for banks, who feared a flood of costly lawsuits.

But for financial firms already under the spotlight for poor treatment of customers, the bad publicity may make it difficult for them to avoid court. For example, Equifax initially turned to arbitration clauses in the face of its cyber hack but public pressure and threats from state attorneys general forced it to drop the requirement for 145.5 million consumers affected by the breach.

Monday, October 23, 2017

Watching Paint Dry

Financial Review

Watching Paint Dry


DOW – 54 = 23,273
SPX – 10 = 2564
NAS – 42 = 6586
RUT – 11 = 1497
10 Y – .01 = 2.38%
OIL + .02 = 51.86
GOLD + 2.00 = 1283.00

Cryptocurrency

  • Number of Currencies: 876
  • Total Market Cap: $169,012,985,919
  • 24H Volume: $5,690,782,655

Top Cryptocurrencies

  Name Symbol Price USD Market Cap Vol. Total Vol. % Price BTC Chg. % 1D Chg. % 7D
  Bitcoin BTC 5,710.1 $94.82B $3.11B 54.62% 1 -3.33% +0.46%
  Ethereum ETH 308.99 $29.31B $784.44M 13.78% 0.0541205 +8.51% -6.30%
  Ripple XRP 0.20325 $7.87B $167.54M 2.94% 0.00003593 +4.97% -20.68%
  Bitcoin Cash BCH 327.67 $5.48B $238.42M 4.19% 0.0576983 +4.86% -0.49%
  Litecoin LTC 57.790 $3.10B $250.59M 4.40% 0.0101885 +5.49% -7.66%
  Dash DASH 294.84 $2.26B $64.49M 1.13% 0.0520935 +5.42% -1.91%
  NEM XEM 0.21126 $1.87B $5.85M 0.10% 0.00003664 +4.21% -7.57%
  NEO NEO 30.300 $1.51B $57.43M 1.01% 0.0053008 +9.19% +6.67%
  BitConnect BCC 195.693 $1.42B $13.41M 0.24% 0.034437 -4.56% +0.06%
  Monero XMR 89.18 $1.35B $38.32M 0.67% 0.0155816 +4.30% -6.85%

Wall Street had opened at record highs following Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s emphatic win in weekend polls. The victory also sent the dollar to a three-month high against the yen, as investors bet the win would mean a continuation of “Abenomics,” the ultra-loose policies that have kept downward pressure on the yen. But the early morning gains faded.

General Electric posted its worst single day loss in more than 6 years, dropping more than 6%. Oilfield services company Halliburton warned of slower growth at its oil well drilling and evaluation business, reflecting a steady drop in rig counts in the United States. The outlook suggests Halliburton’s current-quarter might not be as strong as its latest quarter, even as they posted a 15% increase in third quarter revenue.

Halliburton’s shares fell about 1.5 percent. Schlumberger was down 1.5 percent, while Baker Hughes fell 4 percent. Meanwhile, T-Mobile’s quarterly profit topped Wall Street analyst estimates, and the No. 3 U.S. wireless carrier raised the lower end of its expected range of customer additions for the year but didn’t elaborate on a potential deal with rival Sprint.

Still, the S&P 500 index set a record today, completing its longest streak ever without a 3% intraday drawdown. At the close, it overtook the previous record of 241 days set in 1996. The S&P 500 has gone 34 straight days without a 0.5% drop, the longest streak since 1995.

The S&P 500 has fallen by 1% or more in a single day only four times this year, the fewest for a full year since 1964. Its average daily close on an absolute basis has been 0.3% this year, the lowest since 1965. So, that’s it; it’s official – this is the most boring stock market of all time.

As earnings season rolls on we see companies in the S&P 500 are posting earnings growth of just 2.4% through last week, below the already lame 3.7% that was forecast. The first two quarters of the year looked like earnings were great and headed for the moon, but part of that was just the comparison with the first half of 2016 when earnings were declining.

This week brings a heavy slate of reports, as 185 of the benchmark’s constituents post results. At 21.85 times earnings, the S&P 500 is on the pricier side of historical averages.

It’s not theory anymore. U.S. markets are clearly pricing in some version of a tax plan. The tenor of the markets changed in early September when tax reform made its way back into the news cycle. As we get closer and closer, the details become more and more important.

Today, Trump tweeted that there will be no changes to Americans’ tax-deferred retirement plans (such as 401Ks and IRAs), pushing back against reports that the Republicans are weighing a proposal that would significantly reduce the income workers can save in these popular programs. Now that’s good news if you are trying to save for retirement but it might be bad news for a tax plan.

Republicans’ ability to win passage of a tax package hinges on its ability to survive a complex set of legislative restrictions in the Senate. Republicans are attempting to cut business tax rates deeply, and to cut individual tax rates, using a legislative route that allows them to bypass a Democratic filibuster and pass a bill with a simple Senate majority.

To do that, they will need to make some tough political choices, eliminating some popular tax breaks, or employing some budgetary accounting tricks, to offset lost revenues from rate cuts. Trump’s tweet concerned one of those accounting maneuvers, which would have allowed Republicans to effectively borrow tax revenues from the future to offset some rate cuts today.

Reducing 401K contribution limits would force retirement savers to pay more in taxes today, as they sock away money, but less in the future, when they began withdrawing retirement funds tax-free. This move also opens the door for other possible concessions, or maybe we should say – inevitable concessions.

Clearly, nothing like the plan Republicans recently put forward will become law. The plan does not just fail to lift economic growth meaningfully, it adds significantly to the nation’s fiscal problems. It also is politically unpalatable.

The brouhaha over eliminating the state and local income tax deduction, the principal source of additional tax revenue in the plan, has even forced some of the authors of the legislation to step back from it. If a tax bill makes it into law, and odds appear no better than even that one will, then it will be significantly scaled back.

Whenever you open a bank account or apply for a credit card, there is a ton of fine print, which includes a clause that says that if there is a problem, it must be resolved through arbitration – not by going through the courts or joining in a class action lawsuit.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, a watchdog agency, has approved a rule that would block mandatory arbitration clauses, allowing more people to file or join a lawsuit to press their complaints. So, if a bank were to open bogus accounts in your name, or start racking up unwarranted fees, you could still try to resolve the matter through arbitration, but you could also keep the option of taking it to the courts.

One of the big problems with arbitration is that it is difficult for most people to take time out of their schedule to attend arbitration over smaller disputes. Would you take a day off work to attend arbitration over a $100 dispute you may or may not win? Many people just give up.

Another problem is that if a consumer reaches a settlement through arbitration, it generally requires non-disclosure – meaning that other potential plaintiffs do not have the benefit of knowing that other consumers have been wronged, how they settled, or what evidence might have been uncovered in the process – meaning there is no precedent established through the process of arbitration.

And that means there is no record of repeat offenses. Every misdeed by the bank or financial institution is viewed as “one-off” rather than a pattern of improper or even illegal behavior.

Wall Street had hoped Congress would kill the rule before it went into effect later this year. Today, the Treasury Department issued an 18-page report that tries to argue against the protections. With tax reform now taking up much of lawmakers’ attention, opportunities to push through the measure in time are dwindling.

Also slowing their efforts has been backlash against two big financial firms, Wells Fargo and Equifax. Wells Fargo has been under pressure since admitting last year that employees had opened millions of sham accounts customers didn’t ask for, and Equifax is struggling to recover from a massive hack that affected more than 145 million people.

Consumers groups have used both cases as a rallying cry against arbitration clauses, which Wells Fargo and Equifax both use. But the Treasury Department’s report could provide a boost to efforts to derail the rule.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe made a huge gamble when he called for a snap election to demonstrate confidence in his government. Lucky for him, he won in a landslide. Also lucky are stock investors, and not just those in Japan. The victory likely means the continuation of the Bank of Japan’s huge economic stimulus.

Abe’s policies have allowed gross domestic product to expand for six straight quarters, a rarity for an economy that has been in and out of recession regularly since the 1990s. At less than 3 percent, the unemployment rate is the lowest in 23 years. Japanese shares rose, with the Nikkei 225 Stock Average gaining for a 15th straight day, its longest winning streak on record.

Globally, the BOJ’s continued policy accommodation should help cushion the blow from the Fed’s balance sheet normalization and the ECB’s expected tapering next year. The ECB meets on Thursday and they are widely expected to cut their monthly bond purchase program in half.

The tally is in: Amazon received 238 proposals from cities, states, districts and territories interested in becoming home to the company’s second headquarters. Last month, Amazon announced that it wanted to open a second North American headquarters, setting off a scramble among economic development officials from the United States, Canada and Mexico eager for as many as 50,000 jobs and $5 billion in investment.

The next step is for Amazon’s real estate team to sort through the bids and decide which proposals to consider more closely. It plans to decide early next year. Affordable-housing advocates point to spikes in rents in Seattle as evidence that bidding cities ought to prepare for rising housing costs if Amazon decides to locate thousands of highly paid employees there.

The number of apartments deemed affordable for very low-income families across the United States fell by more than 60 percent between 2010 and 2016. According to a new report by Freddie Mac, rent growth is outstripping income growth in most major metro areas. The apartment vacancy rate was 8 percent in 2009, compared to 4 percent in 2017.

More renters flooded the market after people lost their homes in the housing crisis. That trend, coupled with a stagnant supply of apartments, resulted in increased rents. The report found a significant drop in the percentage of affordable units in seven of the nine states where Freddie Mac financed the most rental units, including Arizona.

Thursday, September 28, 2017

A Stickler for Math

Financial Review

A Stickler for Math


DOW + 40 = 22,381
SPX + 3 = 2510 (record)
NAS + 0.19 = 6453
RUT + 3 = 1488 (record)
10 Y un = 2.31%
OIL – .56 = 51.58
GOLD + 4.30 = 1287.70

Cryptocurrency

  • Number of Currencies: 872
  • Total Market Cap: $137,946,002,185
  • 24H Volume: $4,334,119,332

Top Cryptocurrencies

  Name Symbol Price USD Market Cap Vol. Total Vol. % Price BTC Chg. % 1D Chg. % 7D
  Bitcoin BTC 4,092.0 $67.23B $1.69B 38.97% 1 -2.27% 9.86%
  Ethereum ETH 286.29 $26.77B $548.51M 12.66% 0.0693121 -5.36% 6.77%
  Ripple XRP 0.19261 $7.23B $117.41M 2.71% 0.00004632 -4.42% 8.64%
  Bitcoin Cash BCH 444.00 $7.16B $302.02M 6.97% 0.105858 -3.06% 1.37%
  Litecoin LTC 51.840 $2.71B $217.43M 5.02% 0.0125488 -5.50% 7.38%
  Dash DASH 330.82 $2.45B $48.11M 1.11% 0.0792086 -3.59% -6.56%
  NEM XEM 0.22060 $2.00B $4.78M 0.11% 0.00005451 -7.43% 3.17%
  IOTA MIOTA 0.56939 $1.54B $25.69M 0.59% 0.00013607 -4.33% 10.18%
  Monero XMR 93.30 $1.40B $42.46M 0.98% 0.0227271 -4.97% 5.19%
  NEO NEO 27.000 $1.33B $99.73M 2.30% 0.00653991 -10.00% 50.08%

The S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 hit record high closes. The S&P is up 1.5 percent this month, on track for its sixth consecutive monthly gain. September is normally the worst month for stocks.

The Commerce Department released its third and final estimate of second quarter Gross Domestic Product. Second quarter GDP was revised to 3.1%, up from the earlier estimate of 3%. Growth last quarter was the quickest since the first quarter of 2015 and followed a 1.2 percent pace in the January-March period.

With GDP accelerating in the second quarter, the economy grew 2.1 percent in the first half of 2017. Hurricane damage is expected to put a dent in third quarter GDP, but give a little boost to fourth quarter numbers. Estimates for the growth rate in the July-September period are just above 2.2 percent.

Details of the Republican tax plan have yet to be filled in, so we can’t say yet who would pay what. The 9-page proposal released yesterday specifies three income tax brackets — 12%, 25%, and 35% — but it doesn’t say what income levels they would apply to.

It says the $4,050 exemption that taxpayers currently get for each dependent child would be abolished, to be replaced with an unspecified increase in the per-child credit. It says tax-writing committees would provide families “additional tax relief” that they are not prepared to describe yet.

And because Senate rules will require the plan to fit within a budget resolution that will most likely allow only $1.5 trillion in revenue losses over a decade, lawmakers will have to trim its proposed tax cuts — or add new tax increases — to meet that specification before it can become law.

While there is a lot we don’t know, we can identify a group of taxpayers likely to face tax increases from this proposal: people with moderate to upper-moderate incomes who take itemized deductions, like those for mortgage interest and state and local taxes paid.

Some of these deductions would be eliminated. And while Republicans like to misleadingly claim that their plan would “double the standard deduction,” these itemizing taxpayers would lose the ability to take the personal exemption for themselves or their spouses, subjecting an additional $8,100 of their income to tax.

While these taxpayers would lose key tax benefits, rich taxpayers would come out ahead. The rich would benefit from a new preferential rate for business income — while high-income workers could pay tax at rates as high as 35%, business owners would have tax on their profits capped at 25%.

Today, Chief economic adviser Gary Cohn told reporters that a typical four-person American family bringing in $100,000 a year would save $1,000 under the Republicans’ proposed tax reform effort, which they could use to pay for a new car or a kitchen. Or not.

Cohn didn’t explain the math behind the $1,000 in savings but the rest of the math is wrong. In actuality, the average American family makes $74,000 a year before taxes, or about $30,000 less than that, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The median American family income is roughly half of Cohn’s estimate, or only about $55,000.

And I don’t think I can remodel my kitchen or buy a new car for $1,000. Cohn also claimed, “The wealthy are not getting a tax cut under our plan.” That’s simply not true. This is a huge tax cut for the top 1 percent. Math will be an important part of any tax plan, something the politicians haven’t figured out yet.

Puerto Rico is struggling to recover from what its governor called its “biggest catastrophe in modern history,” with Hurricane Maria’s devastation spiraling the country into a humanitarian crisis. After much criticism that the U.S. was not doing enough to help, Trump waived the Jones Act to speed up shipments to the island.

The Jones Act is a 1920 law that prohibits foreign boats from shuttling goods between US harbors. That will make it a bit easier to get food, water, and other products to Puerto Rican ports. But it will have little impact on what is a more pressing problem. Getting supplies from those ports to the people who need them.

Thousands of cargo containers bearing millions of emergency meals and other relief supplies have been piling up on San Juan’s docks since Saturday. Even with moves to ease shipping to the island, the docks have become choke points in the effort to aid storm survivors and may not reach those who need them for days. If nothing else, Maria is a cautionary tale about the vulnerabilities of the supply chain.

The Facebook group United Muslims of America was neither united, Muslim, nor American. Among their various tactics, Russians impersonated real American Muslims to stir chaos on Facebook and Instagram. (And let’s not leave out Twitter, since the Russians didn’t).

Twitter today disclosed to congressional investigators that more than 200 Russia-linked accounts had been used to spread propaganda and misinformation on the company’s platform. The company said that, over the coming months, it will be introducing new ways to detect malicious activity, although it did not provide specifics.

The European Union is once again asking Facebook, Google, Twitter, and other web companies to crack down on hate speech and speech inciting violence and terrorism — but this time, it’s taking things a step further. The European Commission has issued guidelines for web companies to follow, and it’s warning the companies that, if they don’t comply, the Commission may pass legislation. And that legislation, of course, could lead to some huge fines.

The Supremes are back on the bench. The Supreme Court kicked off their new term with the justices hearing three consolidated cases with far-reaching implications for wage-earners. The cases—Epic Systems Corp. v. LewisErnst & Young LLP v. Morris, and National Labor Relations Board v. Murphy Oil USA, Inc.—are all about whether employers have the right to compel workers go through onerous individual arbitration proceedings in order to bring labor law claims.

If the justices answer that question in the affirmative, then the affected workers will—as a practical matter—find it nearly impossible to win back pay in cases involving wage law violations. In the typical case involving wage law violations plaintiffs bring what’s called a collective action (similar, but not identical to, a class action) to recover back pay from a common employer.

Each worker’s claim might be worth only a few hundred or few thousand dollars, but when the defendant is a large firm with lots of similarly situated employees, the collective action might be worth millions. It’s much easier to find competent counsel to litigate a potentially more lucrative collective action.

To pre-empt this possibility, more firms are inserting individual arbitration clauses into employee contracts. In a series of opinions in recent years—including three authored between 2011 and 2013 by the late conservative Justice Antonin Scalia—the court has repeatedly ruled that consumers were barred from bringing class actions by arbitration clauses they had signed as a condition of receiving a product or service.

In the first three years after the court’s pro-arbitration ruling in AT&T Mobility v. Concepcion in 2011, the number of companies using arbitration clauses to preclude employee class actions jumped from 16.1% to 42.7%. Almost 25 million private-sector, nonunion employees are now subject to class waivers contained in arbitration clauses.

Though the three specific cases before the court all involve overtime claims under the Fair Labor Standards Act, the precedent that will be created appears likely also to impact class claims brought under the Equal Pay Act, the Family Medical Leave Act, the Age Discrimination in Employment Act, and Title VII of the Civil Rights Act.

Every time the price of a barrel of crude rises above $50, US shale drillers ramp up production to take advantage of the surge. Then, as supply increases, prices fall. We may be seeing the start of that trend again after oil rose from $46 to more than $52 only to ease back closer to $51 today. Government data released yesterday showed American drillers lifted output almost 9 percent during the past three weeks, the biggest three-week increase in half a decade.

Drug maker AbbVie climbed after it resolved a patent dispute over Amgen’s version of AbbVie’s drug Humira, which is the source of most of its revenue. Amgen agreed not to begin selling its version of the anti-inflammatory medicine in Europe until October 2018, and the U.S. version won’t go on the market until Jan. 31, 2023. The settlement would mean billions of dollars in additional sales for AbbVie, which reported $16 billion in Humira sales in 2016.

Abbott Laboratories jumped after the Food and Drug Administration approved its FreeStyle Libre Flash glucose monitoring system for adults with Type 1 diabetes. The product uses a sensor inserted below the skin to measure blood glucose. Analysts say Abbott could have a competitive edge because the FDA did not advise patients to take samples of their blood to confirm the system’s readings.

Drugstore chain Rite Aid dropped after its quarterly revenue fell short of Wall Street’s forecasts. The stock lost 26 cents, or 11.2 percent, to $2.03. Earlier this month the company agreed to sell almost half of its stores to rival Walgreens for $4.38 billion, but the slimmed-down deal was smaller than investors had hoped.

Ikea has purchased TaskRabbit, which is a gig-economy app that lets users pay a handyman to assemble their Ikea furniture. That’s the kind of can-do spirit that we need around here.

Monday, July 10, 2017

3 Things

Financial Review

3 Things


DOW – 5 = 21,408
SPX + 2 = 2427
NAS + 23 = 6176
RUT – 7 = 1408
10 Y – .02 = 2.37%
OIL + .09 = 44.49
GOLD + 1.90 = 1215.10
GOLD – 12.80 = 1213.20
BITCOIN – 0.60% = 2357.73 USD
ETHEREUM – 5.71% = 199.45

Three big events on the calendar this week, including: Janet Yellen’s semi-annual testimony before Congress, another attempt to pass a replacement to Obamacare, and Amazon Prime day.

Congress returned from a July 4 recess, with Senate Republicans beginning to consider what they should do if their Obamacare replacement bill fails. While lawmakers were on recess, they heard from constituents at home, and the message was strong opposition to the Better Care Reconciliation Act; a survey in late June showed the plan had only 17% support from US voters.

With a slim 52-seat majority, they can only afford to lose two GOP senators and still let Vice President Pence break a tie. Roughly 10 GOP senators have come out against the current version of the Senate healthcare bill. Senate Republicans want to roll out a new draft of their bill to repeal and replace Obamacare as soon as this week, with a vote next week.

Before a vote, they will need an update from the Congressional Budget Office. Senators could release an updated draft of their bill by the end of the week. Senate Republicans sent two proposals to the CBO late last month, one including an amendment from Sen. Ted Cruz and one without.

The Cruz proposal would give insurance companies the freedom to sell any kinds of health plans they want if they also sell at least one plan that qualifies under the regulatory requirements of the Affordable Care Act. But the amendment has drawn push-back from GOP senators, who warn that the proposal won’t be able to get enough support to pass. Some senators are now pushing a “repeal now, try to come up with a replacement later” approach.

A straight repeal bill almost certainly would not have the votes to pass. Trump has also suggested moving forward with a simple Obamacare repeal bill if negotiations fall apart. That would at least, supporters say, fulfill a key GOP promise and allow lawmakers more time to draft an acceptable replacement. But Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and more moderate members would rather work with Democrats on a short-term plan to stabilize the insurance markets, lest they deteriorate even more.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration is aiming to come to an agreement on a draft tax plan with the House and Senate before the August recess, with the goal of beginning legislative action after the break. The plan always called for dealing with health care first, then tax reform, so…

What will Janet Yellen say in Congressional testimony? The Federal Reserve chair will discuss the outlook for policy and the economy in Congressional testimony on Wednesday and Thursday in her semi-annual testimony before the House and Senate. Investors will focus on her views regarding interest rate policy and when the central bank plans to start winding back its $4.5 trillion balance sheet.

In its latest meeting minutes, released last week, the Fed remained guarded about the timing of reducing reinvestment flows. The minutes noted that several Fed officials wanted to announce the start to the process of trimming asset holdings within “a couple of months’’, suggesting the September policy meeting may well mark the moment.

Against the backdrop of solid job gains, the quibble from the bond market is the lack of inflation pressure. A gain of 222,000 new jobs during June, alongside upward revisions for May and April, was accompanied by sluggish wage growth. So, we are left with a divergence between bond traders and policy officials.

While the Fed forecasts a further tightening of 100 basis points (or 4 more quarter-percentage point hikes) by the end of 2018, the bond market pegs that at around 45bp. Yellen ‘may well seek to narrow the gap between the Fed’s assessment on the policy outlook and what the market is currently anticipating.

Another focus for investors and markets is any expansion of Yellen’s comments regarding ‘somewhat rich’ asset price valuations and those of William Dudley, the NY Fed president, that loose financial conditions can provide ‘additional impetus’ for rate hikes. Look for Yellen to be very transparent. She will probably try to telegraph any Fed action. The Fed has been acting only after there is no doubt they will act.

Yellen says the process for trimming the Fed’s balance sheet will be like watching paint dry. Still, the testimony should be entertaining, if only to demonstrate Congress’ complete lack of basic economics.

In case you haven’t heard, Tuesday, July 11, is the third annual Amazon Prime Day, actually it starts at 6PM (pacific) tonight. With two years of experience under its belt, Amazon is planning its biggest Prime Day yet. If you haven’t heard of Prime Day, it’s Amazon’s biggest sales event of the year. More than 100,000 items are set to be discounted, but the discounts will be available only for Amazon Prime members.

Deals are released sporadically throughout the day and are available for a set time or until the product sells out. New products will be rolled out every 5 minutes or so. What can you expect to be discounted? Everything from home goods, to electronics, to clothing; basically, if it’s available on Amazon, there’s a good chance Prime Day will be one of the best days to buy it.

Think of Prime Day as Black Friday in July; big-ticket items like TVs, tablets, and Amazon products like its Echo smart speakers, Kindle e-readers, and Fire TV will be way cheaper than usual. It’s also a good day to pick up tech accessories you’ve been meaning to buy, like headphones, portable chargers, car mounts, phone cases, or laptop stands.

Those discounts probably won’t be as dramatic, but if you buy a few of them, the savings will quickly add up. Another thing to watch out for is discounts on gift cards, which is basically free money. If you eat at certain restaurants or shop at a specific brick-and-mortar store, it’ll be well worth your while to keep an eye on those.

JP Morgan estimates that Amazon Prime Day would generate about $1 billion in sales, a 55% jump from last year. And because the event requires Prime subscription membership, the effect should carry over into the rest of the year. Still, you might want to shop around; 76 percent of Prime Day shoppers will visit other online stores to research product ratings and reviews before making a purchase on Amazon.

Rival retailers are not about to sit on the sidelines. Instead, they are hoping to capitalize on the heavier-than-normal shopping traffic online this week, and that means almost everybody will be running sales this week.

The Federal Reserve reports consumer credit rose at a 5.8% clip, or by $18.4 billion, in May. That’s the fastest rate in seven months, and comes as revolving credit like credit cards jumped 8.7%. Non-revolving credit, typically auto and student loans, rose 4.7%.

Abercrombie & Fitch is not for sale. Shares of Abercrombie & Fitch plunged 21 percent and dragged down other retail stocks as the teen apparel maker terminated talks over a potential sale. Abercrombie, which has a market value of $650 million, had said in May it was in talks with several bidders regarding a potential sale

The first Model 3 rolled off the assembly line today. The Tesla Model 3 will be priced at around $35,000. Tesla has already taken in roughly half a billion dollars in Model 3 deposits, at $1,000 apiece, and its proposed ramp-up schedule would have it rivaling well-established U.S. market peers like BMW and Mercedes by year’s end.

The only thing standing between Tesla and being the world’s first mass-market electric car-maker is proving it can build, deliver, and service enormous numbers of these vehicles—without sacrificing quality. One down, millions more to go.

Faraday Future, which also makes electric cars said it is deserting its plan to construct a $1 billion manufacturing plant in southern Nevada eight months after suspending the project and sinking at least $120 million into it. Thousands of jobs had been anticipated to come with the construction and launch of the proposed plant on a 900-acre site at the Apex Industrial Park in North Las Vegas.

Honda Motor confirmed an 11th U.S. death involving one of its vehicles tied to a faulty Takata air bag inflator. Honda said the incident occurred in Florida in June 2016 when an individual was working on repairs on a 2001 Honda Accord and the air bag ruptured. At least 17 deaths and 180 injuries worldwide are now tied to the defect that prompted the largest ever auto safety recall and led Takata to file for bankruptcy protection last month.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau decided to ban most types of mandatory arbitration clauses, which require credit card or bank customers to use a mediator when they have a dispute — often giving up their right to sue in court.

Mandatory arbitration clauses are found in the fine print of tens of millions of financial products, from credit cards to checking accounts. Because consumers generally don’t carefully read the fine print on the agreements for their checking accounts and credit cards, they are often unaware they are subject to arbitration. Consumer advocates have been pushing for years for stricter federal regulation of these types of clauses.

Banks have strongly opposed banning arbitration clauses, arguing that arbitration is a more efficient way of handling small disputes. There’s also a bottom line impact: banks could be exposed to billions of dollars in lawsuits from customers, specifically class action suits.

Thursday, May 05, 2016

$6 Battery

Financial Review

$6 Battery


DOW + 9 = 17,660
SPX – 0.49 = 2050
NAS – 8 = 4717
10 Y – .04 = 1.75
OIL + .34 = 44.32
GOLD – 1.40 = 1278.60

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week, posting the biggest gain in more than a year. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 17,000 to a seasonally adjusted 274,000 for the week ended April 30. The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, rose 2,000 to 258,000 last week.

Another report showed a 35 percent surge in planned layoffs by U.S.-based employers last month. Most of the announced job cuts were concentrated in the energy sector.  Challenger, Gray & Christmas said US-based companies announced 65,141 job cuts last month.

The jobs report for April due out tomorrow morning. Investors will be watching closely to see if it could have any impact on the Federal Reserve’s plans for raising interest rates at its next policy meeting in June. The report is expected to show jobs grew by 200,000 last month while the unemployment rate stayed at 5 percent.  A strong jobs report would be a possible indicator of Fed tightening. An early rally on Wall Street this morning faded into the close.

MetLife said it’s seeking to exit most of its hedge-fund portfolio after a slump in the investments. The insurer is seeking to redeem $1.2 billion of the $1.8 billion in holdings, a process that may take a couple of years to complete. The portfolio, which posted negative returns in the quarter, was cut by about $600 million in 2015. MetLife reported profit Wednesday that missed analysts’ estimates. Investment income fell 17 percent to $4.5 billion, hurt by both hedge funds and low bond yields.

American International Group posted a third-straight unprofitable quarter on losses from hedge funds and declines in the value of other investments. AIG is reshaping its portfolio, expanding bets on highly rated bonds and property lending while scaling back on hedge funds after the company was burned on those investments.

AIG also is among insurers that have large holdings of energy bonds that were pressured by declines in commodity prices. And it isn’t just the insurance companies that are abandoning hedge funds; the New York City Employee Retirement System, the city’s largest pension fund, announced last month it was liquidating its hedge fund portfolio, citing big fees and bad performance.

Hedge funds have been underperforming. A challenging trading climate in 2015 left a composite index of hedge funds down 0.9 percent for 2015. By comparison, the Standard & Poor’s 500 inched up 1.38 percent for the year. The market pain continued into the first quarter of 2016, when investors pulled $15.1 billion out of the hedge fund industry, the largest outflow since 2009.

It also looks bad for junk bonds. HYG, the high yield ETF, just experienced a 4 day, $2.3 billion outflow, which is the fastest and largest redemption it has ever experienced. Which could mean nothing or it could mean the nearly 60% bounce in crude oil prices from the 2016 low is just a temporary move.

Alibaba Group, China’s biggest e-commerce company, said fourth-quarter revenue rose 39 percent, beating Wall Street estimates, helped by growth in gross merchandise volume. The number of mobile monthly active users rose 42 percent to 410 million. Alibaba represents a big part of the spending by Chinese consumers and so a re-acceleration in volumes is an indication that the Chinese consumer continues to be strong.

Amazon.com could take as much as a 30 percent stake in a large cargo airline, its second such deal this year as the e-commerce giant steps up efforts to take control of its own delivery logistics. As part of the agreement, Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings will operate 20 Boeing 767-300 cargo planes for Amazon. The Seattle-based retailer is moving quickly to build up its delivery network, seeking to wean itself from dependence on United Parcel Service and FedEx.

Tesla Motors on Wednesday posted quarterly results that were just slightly better than Wall Street’s expectations. The electric automaker reported a first-quarter loss of 57 cents per share on $1.6 billion in revenue, but the big news was the guidance from CEO Elon Musk; Tesla delivered just over 14,000 cars in the first quarter; Musk said he expects production of 100,000 to 200,000 Model 3 vehicles in the second half of next year, and 500,000 cars in 2018.

If that sounds like a pretty outrageous promise, well… yes, except Tesla already has more than 400,000 pre-orders for the Model S. The challenge isn’t in the sales numbers, it will be the ability to transition from technology and design to manufacturing.

Merck reported lower-than-expected quarterly revenue, hurt by disappointing sales of its Januvia diabetes treatment and Remicade arthritis drug. But the second-largest US drug maker beat first-quarter earnings forecasts because of cost controls and a weakening dollar, and it slightly raised its full-year profit outlook.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau unveiled a proposed rule this morning to restrict the use of arbitration clauses in consumer financial contracts, a step that would shift power to consumers and away from companies for a wide range of financial products from credit cards to bank accounts to private student loans. The CFPB aims to prohibit financial companies from using mandatory-arbitration clauses in contracts with consumers as a way to block class-action lawsuits and force customers into private negotiations to solve disputes. The new rule does not require congressional approval.

Class action suits might not be the easiest way to get your day in court, and the big winners tend to be the lawyers. The argument for arbitration is that it is a quick, easy, and inexpensive way to resolve a dispute; the reality is that very few cases, only about 100 a year, for cases under $2,500, end up in arbitration after their path to class action is blocked. And of those cases that make it to arbitration, the customer typically loses, more than 95% of the time.

One reason why arbitration works so well for the companies is that they select the arbitrators. The arbitrators that are chosen to serve are not only screened to be big institution friendly; arbitrators that wind up ruling in favor of customers have this funny way of being moved to the bottom of the selection list. The result is that companies using arbitration clauses tend to act with impunity. Class actions are the only way that companies can be brought to heel.

California Governor Jerry Brown has signed a pack of bills that will raise the smoking age from 18 to 21, restrict the use of electronic cigarettes in public places and expand no-smoking areas at public schools. The new laws, which take effect June 9, are a big boost to a movement that is turning into the next major challenge for the $100 billion tobacco industry. Lawmakers in 10 other U.S. states are currently considering similar legislation.

Meanwhile, the FDA announced it will regulate e-cigarettes and vaporizers, also cigars and pipe tobacco. Congress gave the FDA authority to oversee tobacco products in 2009, but until now the agency had not finalized rules to regulate e-cigarettes and cigars.

The rules prohibit sales to minors, ban free samples, require package warning labels, and call for makers of products released after 2007 to seek FDA permission to remain on store shelves. Companies will have 24 months to file pre-market applications for their products, according to the rule. The FDA then has a year to review the submission, during which the products can remain on shelves.

YouTube is planning a paid subscription service. Alphabet’s YouTube is planning to launch a subscription-based bundle of streaming cable channels. The new service will be called “Unplugged,” and it is set to launch as soon as 2017. It is not yet clear what channels will be included.

The ECB is also discontinuing production of the €500-euro note due to concerns that it could facilitate illegal activities. Terrorists and drug cartels need cold hard cash to operate, and the European Central Bank is taking a big step to make it harder for them. The ECB will stop printing its 500 bill in the next two years, though it will still be in circulation.

Another oil and gas bankruptcy? SandRidge Energy is in discussions with creditors about reaching a restructuring deal ahead of a possible bankruptcy filing. According to its annual report, SandRidge had $3.6 billion in debt at Dec. 31.

My smartphone has more computing power than the first Apollo space mission that landed on the moon. I don’t use all that computing power. I send text and emails, take pictures, use the maps, and check out stuff on the interwebs. Sometimes I make phone calls. It’s a couple of years old and the battery started fading a couple of weeks ago. I went to Best Buy for a replacement battery; they didn’t have it in stock but the clerk suggested an upgrade to a new phone. I did not buy.

I went to Amazon.com and ordered a new battery for $6 dollars compared to a new phone at about 100 times that price. My old phone is working great again. Smartphone upgrades have been steadily declining over the last five years. For the first time, smartphone growth went into the negative for the first quarter. Seems people just aren’t upgrading like they used to.