Financial Review

Halftime Report

Sinclair Noe — June 30, 2016

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DOW + 235 = 17,929
SPX + 28 = 2098
NAS + 63 = 4842
10 Y + .01 = 1.49%
OIL – 1.48 = 48.40
GOLD + 3.40 = 1322.70

Today is the end of the month, end of the second quarter, and end of the first half of trading, so let’s break down some numbers at halftime.

The Dow and S&P 500 and Nasdaq are now back in the black for 2016 and for the second quarter. The Dow is up 106 points since the start of the year. The S&P is up 40 points year to date. The Nasdaq is up 106 for the year.

For the month of June, the Dow added 64 points, the S&P gained 2 points, and the Nasdaq is down 106. June included some brutal Brexit related losses. The Dow is still down about 80 points from last Thursday (pre-Brexit), the S&P is still down about 15 points, and the Nasdaq is down about 68 points. Still, it was a nice bounce back; the best 3-day rally in 4 months, following the worst 2-day decline for Wall Street in 10 months.

Tomorrow, July 1^st is the most bullish day of the year; according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, on July 1, over the past 21 years, the S&P 500 has advanced 85.7% of the time on the first trading day of July. The average gain is 0.46%. Of course, not every July 1 is created equal.

European stocks and the pound held on to a third day of gains as the immediate market flurry over Britain’s vote to pull out of the European Union settled. The rebound was not enough, however, to offset the sharp losses suffered in the aftermath of last week’s vote which have put global stocks on track for their worst monthly performance since January. And this does not mean that we have seen the end of Brexit related problems or fallout in financial markets.

Oil closed down almost 3% today but still posted its best quarter in 7 years. Back in January, West Texas Intermediate crude oil touched a 14-year low, falling below $27 a barrel. It gained about 26.1% for the second quarter, and trades roughly 30.5% higher year to date. Still, WTI has had a hard time cracking $50 a barrel, which seems to be the level that sees producers ramping up output.

Initial U.S. jobless claims rose by 10,000 to 268,000 for the week stretching from June 19 to June 25. Still, new claims remained below the key 300,000 mark for the 69th straight week, the longest streak since 1973.

The Senate passed and sent to the White House a relief measure to help Puerto Rico deal with its fiscal crisis, just two days before the territory planned to default on a large debt payment. President Obama said he will sign the measure. The rescue package will not prevent Puerto Rico from missing the $2 billion debt payment due on Friday, but the bill would bar lawsuits by creditors for nonpayment retroactive to December – an important provision in light of the imminent missed debt payment. The legislation would allow the island’s government to restructure its $72 billion total debt so that it can manage payments and create an oversight board to guide the recovery process; at least that is the theory. There will likely be further defaults in the not so distant future.

Nearly all of the largest U.S. banks are on steady enough footing to issue dividends or make share buybacks after passing the final round of the Fed’s annual stress tests. The US units of Deutsche Bank and Santander were the only lenders to fail for a second year in a row, meaning they cannot increase shareholder payouts until they establish a new plan. “Material weaknesses” were also seen at Morgan Stanley, but the Fed allowed the bank to proceed with a dividend hike and $3.5 billion buyback while it rectifies the issues.

After passing the Dodd-Frank stress tests, Wall Street banks announced their stock-buyback plans. Among the notables, JPMorgan will buy back $10.6 billion worth of stock, while Citi and Bank of America will repurchase $8.6 billion and $5 billion worth of shares. Goldman Sachs will also buy back shares, but it did not release an amount. All told, the 31 banks are planning to dish out about $96 billion.

Separately, the International Monetary Fund says Deutsche Bank is the riskiest financial institution in the world as a potential source of external shocks to the financial system: “Among the globally systemically important banks, Deutsche Bank appears to be the most important net contributor to systemic risks, followed by HSBC and Credit Suisse,” according to the IMF Financial Sector Assessment Program. The institution also said the German banking system poses a higher degree of possible outward contagion compared with the risks it poses internally.

What is the cost of being labeled a systemically important financial institution? In the case of General Electric, the magic number looks to be about $50 billion. GE officially shook off the designation on Wednesday that had been applied by the Financial Stability Oversight Council to its GE Capital finance unit.

April last year, GE began selling off almost all of GE Capital’s assets, about $200 billion in sales. Since G.E. announced its plans to offload the financial side of the business, the company’s stock has added about $5.25 a share, or roughly $50 billion in overall market capitalization. G.E.’s stock is up more than 20 percent, even as the S&P 500 has gone nowhere; and while Morgan Stanley, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs have all lost more than 20 percent of their former value.

A federal appeals court threw out a $7.25 billion antitrust settlement among Visa, MasterCard and millions of retailers over credit card fees. The settlement was intended to resolve nearly a decade of litigation concerning whether Visa and MasterCard improperly fixed fees that merchants were charged when customers used credit or debit cards, also known as swipe fees. The settlement would have allowed Visa and MasterCard to impose higher and higher swipe fees.

The 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in New York said the accord was unfair to retailers that stood to receive no payments, and in the court’s view, little or no benefit at all. It also decertified the case as a class action. Circuit Judge Pierre Leval, a member of the three-judge panel that unanimously struck down the settlement wrote: “This is not a settlement; it is a confiscation.” The case could now be renegotiated or it could go to trial.

Looking to free up TV spectrum for cellular use, the FCC has acquired $86 billion worth of wireless airwaves from television broadcasters in the first phase of a complex auction. The agency hopes bidders will be willing to spend that much when it resells the airwaves in an auction that will start later this summer, but it may have to sell less spectrum than expected, or use multiple rounds to settle bidding by broadcasters.

The movie studio Lionsgate agreed to buy Starz, the premium cable channel home to hit shows like “Outlander,” for about $4.4 billion.

Theater chain Carmike Cinemas dropped today’s scheduled shareholder vote on its proposed sale to AMC Entertainment Holdings, saying it was adjourning until next month and throwing the $1.1 billion deal into doubt. The deal was opposed by some of Carmike’s biggest shareholders. Carmike said the adjournment was made at the request of AMC and that the special meeting will reconvene on July 15.

The big deal announced today comes from Mondelez International, a $23 billion offer for Hershey, the chocolate company.  Hershey said that Mondelez had offered to pay $107 a share in cash and stock, a premium of about 10 percent to Hershey’s closing stock price. Hershey said that its board had “rejected the indication of interest and determined that it provided no basis for further discussion between Mondelez and the company.”

Winning Hershey could prove tricky for Mondelez, since the smaller chocolate maker is effectively controlled by a charitable trust that owns about 81 percent of the company’s voting power. The Hershey Trust, established by Milton Hershey and his wife, Catherine, in 1905, has opposed takeovers of the company in the past.

In 2002, the trust halted an auction of the company at the 11th hour as it was about to accept a $12 billion deal from Wm. Wrigley Jr. Company. News of the offer approach sent shares in Hershey up 16 percent, to $113.49, which is more than the offered amount. So, if Mendelez is serious, they will clearly have to sweeten the deal. (sorry, I couldn’t resist.)

The Justice Department has told Anthem its planned takeover of Cigna threatens competition and probably can’t be fixed by selling parts of their businesses. A decision on the $48 billion merger is expected by mid-July.

If you decide to just kick back for the Fourth, you might take advantage of the downtime to grab your mobile device and reset your passwords. Oculus VR CEO Brendan Iribe, is the latest, high-profile victim of a Twitter account takeover, and he allegedly used an old password. The hackers took over his Twitter account by posting: “Imagine creating the coolest s**t to ever be introduced to gaming and technology but using the same pass for 4 years lol… silly Mr. CEO.” It got worse from there.

Millions of U.S. travelers flying during the busy Fourth of July holiday weekend will face heightened security and increased delays due to the deadly attacks at Istanbul’s main airport. Following the Istanbul attacks, which took place outside security checkpoints, U.S. airports are likely to focus on surveillance and armed personnel in similar public spaces not subject to screening.

The security measures are not limited to airports; look for more officers at July 4^th celebrations as well. A record number of Americans, 43 million, are expected to travel between June 30 and July 4, according to AAA. The vast majority will go by car, AAA said, but 3.3 million are expected to fly.

Financial Review

The Question

Sinclair Noe — January 5, 2016

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DOW + 9 = 17,158
SPX + 4 = 2016
NAS – 11 = 4891
10 Y un= 2.25%
OIL – .87 = 35.89
GOLD + 3.10 = 1078.50

The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its greatest opening-day loss since 2008 yesterday. Today might be considered a tepid recovery, or maybe just a reminder that the world did not end with the change of the calendar.

China moved to shore up shaky investor sentiment today following an equities selloff that rocked global financial markets on revived concerns about the country’s economic slowdown. China’s CSI 300 Index initially dropped 2%, but a late session rally erased losses and the index closed 0.3 percent. State-controlled funds bought equities and the securities regulator signaled that a selling ban for major investors which was due to expire this week may be extended.

The People’s Bank of China pumped nearly $20 billion into the economy, the largest amount since September. The yuan rebounded from a five-year low.  The Nikkei 225-share index in Japan finished the day 0.4 percent lower. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong closed 0.7 percent down. European stocks rose, with the FTSE 100 in London up 0.7 percent for the day. The Euro Stoxx 50 index rose 0.4 percent.

Kuwait recalled its ambassador from Iran. The announcement is the latest in an unfolding regional row that escalated with Saudi Arabia’s execution of a Shiite cleric over the weekend. Saudi Arabia’s embassy in Tehran was ransacked and set on fire Saturday. Saudi Arabia broke off diplomatic ties with Iran in response, followed on Monday by its allies Bahrain and Sudan, and a diplomatic downgrade by the United Arab Emirates. The Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf with the Arabian Sea, carries about 20% of the world’s petroleum, and about 35% of the petroleum traded by sea, making it a highly important strategic location.

At almost any other time, an escalating diplomatic conflict between OPEC members Iran and Saudi Arabia would mean a spike in oil prices, even if temporary, but this latest problem saw prices dip slightly yesterday, and today, prices dropped to a 2-week low. That should give us some indication about the strength of the downtrend in oil.

President Obama announced executive actions on gun control today, in the wake of mass shootings across the country. The executive action will require all gun dealers to be licensed, including those who sell online and at gun shows, clamping down on dealers who pass themselves off as “hobbyists” or “collectors.” It closes a loophole that allows people to acquire guns through “gun trusts” without background checks, and increases the responsibility of gun dealers for reporting missing guns. It includes a plan to hire more staff to process background checks and enforce gun laws, and allocates $500 million to mental-health care.

Puerto Rico is bracing for lawsuits following the island’s second default in the past five months. Governor Alejandro Garcia Padilla said, “Every dollar used to pay lawyers will be a dollar not available to pay creditors.” The U.S. territory was able to pay the majority of the nearly $1 billion due to bondholders on Monday, but a series of transfers from revenue bonds to general obligation bonds was not enough; Puerto Rico defaulted on two of the 13 bonds that had scheduled payments. Because of the New Year’s Day holiday, all of the due dates were extended until the close of business on Monday.

CoreLogic reports US home prices rose 0.5% in November, representing a 6.3% year-over-year gain. Arizona posted a 5.9% price gain in the last 12 months.

Automakers are reporting a record year for sales. New vehicle sales in 2015 totaled 17.47 million, topping the record setting sales of 2000.  Fiat Chrysler reported its 69th straight monthly gain in sales; that was a record for Fiat Chrysler, but it missed analysts’ estimates. Nissan achieved its best-ever December in the US with strong sales of trucks, minivans and sports utility vehicles, including its premium Infiniti brand. For the full year, Fiat-Chrysler reported 2.2 million vehicles sold, up 7% from 2014. Nissan, with 1.35 million, was also up 7%. General Motors sold 3.1 million vehicles, up 5%. Ford, with 2.6 million, was also up 5%; sales of Ford’s F-Series pickups jumped 15 percent as the trucks remained the top-selling vehicle line in America for the 34th consecutive year. Toyota, with 2.5 million vehicles sold, was up 5% as well. And Honda posted 1.58 million vehicles sold, an increase of 3%.

Early news from the Consumer Electronic Show: Nvidia has revealed a new lunchbox-size super-computer for self-driving cars, saying Volvo will be the device’s first customer. The Drive PX 2 has computing power equivalent to 150 MacBook Pro computers, and can deliver up to 24 trillion “deep learning” operations per second – allowing the computer to use artificial intelligence to program itself to recognize driving situations. Partnerships between automakers and Silicon Valley on self-driving technologies appear to be taking center stage at the annual tech conference.

The coolest news out of the CES might be the debut of a new prototype electric car from Faraday; it features 1,000 horsepower and goes from zero to 60 in 3 seconds. The vehicle looks like a cross between a Formula One race car and the Batmobile. Faraday officials said they’ll sell a vehicle in a “couple of years’ time,” and are a few weeks from breaking ground on a 3 million-square-foot factory in Nevada. The Batmobile prototype is not what they will eventually sell; they will probably come out with a more practical sedan as its first offering.

Facebook’s Oculus will release its virtual reality Rift headset to consumers for pre-order on Wednesday but one big question remains: how much will it cost? In a blog post on Monday, Oculus revealed very little except that pre-orders will open from 8 a.m. Pacific time and that each headset will come with two free games. Last year, Oculus executives hinted that the Rift headset and a computer needed to run it would cost no more than $1,500 together.

New York City will begin replacing thousands of pay phones this month with free Wi-Fi hot spots that will sit atop a 9-foot tall box featuring electronic advertising screens and an Android tablet that can be used to place free phone calls. The $200 million project, called LinkNYC, is being run by CityBridge, a joint venture between three tech companies: Qualcomm, CIVIQ Smartscapes, and Intersection – which has backing from Alphabet.

2015 was a record setting year for mergers and acquisitions. Buyers spent $3.8 trillion, the highest amount ever, surpassing the previous record set in 2007, before the financial crisis. The fourth quarter was the busiest of last year, with $1.3 trillion in transactions announced, passing the trillion-dollar mark for the first time since the second quarter of 2007. And the calendar for 2016 looks busy, as companies will try to wrap up previously announced deals; including ABInBev and SAB Miller, Anthem and Cigna, Aetna and Humana, Shire and Baxalta, plus Halliburton and Baker Hughes; to name just a few of the bigger deals.

The FCC is delaying its informal deadline by 15 days to review the proposed $56 billion merger of rivals Charter Communications and Time Warner Cable. The break will give the agency more time to assess the impact of the proposed deal on TWC’s regional sports networks and Charter’s residential pricing/packaging.

Fairchild Semiconductor has received a revised takeover proposal from a group led by China Resources Holdings and Hua Capital Management. The improved bid would value the company’s equity at $2.46 billion. Phoenix-based ON Semiconductor in November agreed to buy Fairchild Semiconductor for $2.4 billion to bolster its business of making power-management chips. Fairchild said this morning that its board still supports the deal with ON Semiconductor and is not making any recommendation related to the revised proposal, but they did acknowledge the offer from the Chinese investor group would constitute a “superior proposal”.

Meanwhile, Chandler-based Microchip Technology is planning to submit a binding offer for Atmel by early next week, challenging the latter’s planned merger with Dialog Semiconductor. Reuters reported last month that Microchip was the undisclosed bidder that made a $3.8 billion unsolicited offer for Atmel. Atmel said on Dec. 11 it had started negotiations with an unidentified party that made a $9 per share cash offer that could potentially be deemed more valuable than a cash-and-stock acquisition proposal by Dialog it accepted in September.

More tech/media deals: Dell is close to selling its Perot Systems unit to French IT consulting firm Atos for $4 billion. Activision Blizzard confirmed its acquisition of Major League Gaming, but did not disclose financial details. China’s Dalian Wanda Group has sealed a deal to take a majority stake in U.S. movie studio Legendary Entertainment that values the company at $3-$4 billion. Harman Industries, best known for JBL and Harman Kardon audio gear said it agreed to buy automotive cybersecurity company TowerSec. Terms of the deal were not disclosed.

If all this M&A activity has you thinking that stocks are a little overvalued, you might be right. Citigroup today downgraded US stocks to underweight. They didn’t call for a definitive end to the US bull market, but they think there might be better opportunities elsewhere. Citi assigned an underweight ranking to the US, the UK, and Australia; specifically the sectors of consumer staples, utilities, and industrials. Citi assigned an overweight ranking to Europe (excluding the UK) and Japan; specifically to the sectors of IT, financials, and health care.

And finally, we answer the most pressing question of the day: the Powerball drawing is at 10:59 PM tomorrow (that’s 8:59 PM Arizona time). Ticket sales usually close down about an hour before the drawing. The jackpot is expected to top $450 million. The odds of winning are 1 in about 292-million. If you buy 2 tickets, your odds are still about 1 in 292-million.

Japan Has Dropped Back Into Deflation

Financial Review

Busy Day

Sinclair Noe — September 25, 2015

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DOW + 113 = 16,314
SPX – 0.9 = 1931
NAS – 47 = 4686
10 YR YLD + .05 = 2.17%
OIL + .64 = 45.55
GOLD – 7.70 = 1147.40
SILV – .05 = 15.20

For the week, the Dow was down 0.4 percent, the S&P 500 was down 1.4 percent and the Nasdaq was down 2.9 percent.

Yesterday afternoon we told you about Janet Yellen’s speech in Massachusetts; Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen says that an initial rate hike is likely to be appropriate this year. Yellen said she expects inflation will return to 2% over the next few years as temporary factors currently holding it down will wane. Signs of weak growth overseas won’t prove large enough to have a significant impact on policy. Yellen said: “Most FOMC participants, including myself, currently anticipate…an initial increase in the federal funds rate later this year, followed by a gradual pace of tightening thereafter.”

Near the end of her speech, Yellen kind of froze up; she went silent for a while, stumbled over her words, and seemed to be having a hard time. After the speech paramedics checked her out and gave her a clean bill of health. Later attributed the incident to dehydration. She was back at work today.

This morning we heard reports House Speaker John Boehner would resign his position as Speaker of the House and his seat in Congress at the end of October. Boehner held a press conference to confirm. The abrupt decision comes after he faced heavy pressure from conservatives in his party to take a harder line on their causes. Boehner also told the lawmakers that Pope Francis’ visit to Congress the day before was a crystallizing moment.

Representative Kevin McCarthy of California, the No. 2 House Republican, quickly became the leading contender to replace Boehner as speaker. McCarthy has been loyal to Boehner during his frequent tussles with conservatives, but is also close to Tea Party conservatives and in recent months has tacked to the right. Boehner declined to endorse anyone as his successor, but told reporters McCarthy “would make an excellent speaker.”

Boehner told reporters he was stepping aside to avoid another brewing House battle over his leadership, but before he leaves, Boehner will have at least one big battle. With only a few days left until a possible government shutdown, Congress is in overdrive to keep federal funds flowing despite partisan divisions over Planned Parenthood. The issue has ignited the latest crisis in U.S. budget wars and has forced the Obama administration to prepare for a potential repeat of the 2013 shutdown, which lasted 16 days and suspended the salaries of 800,000 federal employees. Boehner’s resignation appeared to ease the threat of a government shutdown next week. Many Republicans said it would free him to forge ahead with a “clean” spending bill. At least that’s one theory; the other line of thought is that Boehner will find it increasingly difficult to herd cats as a lame duck. I’m sure he’ll make a fine lobbyist.

Next on the news docket:  Chinese president Xi Jingping is in Washington for an official state dinner at the White House. President Xi announced that China will start a national pollution-trading system to cut global-warming emissions for its most polluting industries. That’s in addition to previous Chinese commitments to bring its emissions to a peak by 2030 and radically scale up solar and wind power. China even promised $3.1 billion to help poorer countries move away from fossil fuels. The move should also add pressure for a global climate change accord in Paris this December. At a joint news conference with President Obama, Xi said there was no reason to expect China’s yuan currency to depreciate against the U.S. dollar over the long run, saying the exchange rate was “moving toward stability.”

Pope Francis is in New York today. He started the day with a speech before the United Nations General Assembly. Pope Francis strongly condemned the craving for material gains and power, telling world leaders gathered at the United Nations that greed is destroying the Earth’s resources and aggravating poverty. The spiritual leader of the world’s 1.2 billion Catholics condemned the “grave offense” of economic and social exclusion. An attack on the environment was an assault on the rights and living conditions of the most vulnerable, he said, warning that at its most extreme, environmental degradation threatened humanity’s survival. Then he led multi-religious prayer services at the 9/11 Memorial and Museum site, followed by a ride through Central Park in the Popemobile, a visit to a school in Harlem, and then a mass at Madison Square Garden. And you thought you had a busy Friday.

Gross domestic product — the value of everything a nation produces — rose at a 3.9% annual rate from April to June, according to the government’s second update of how fast the nation’s economy expanded during the spring. Previously the Commerce Department had said GDP increased 3.7%. The figures get revised as the government gets more data on how the economy performed. Consumer purchases jumped 3.6%, up from a prior estimate of 3.1%. Americans spent more on services such as health care and transportation. Businesses also invested more in structures such as office buildings and plants than the government initially reported. Investment on structures rose 6.2%, double the earlier estimate. Outlays on equipment also rose slightly instead of declining. And spending for home construction climbed 9.3% instead of 7.8%. After-tax corporate profits jumped 2.6 percent to double BEA’s estimate of 1.3 percent.

S&P 500 companies, excluding financial companies, collectively had $1.43 trillion in cash reserves sitting on the sidelines in the second quarter (April to June) of this year. That’s the second highest level in 10 years, and just a tad lower than the 1.45 trillion high set in the fourth quarter last year. Tech companies especially have much more cash than they did during the dot-com bubble era. Tech leads all sectors in its cash holdings by a long mile.

Some cash numbers are remarkable. Microsoft has $96 billion in cash, Google holds $70 billion and Cisco has $60 billion. The good news is that it reflects very healthy balance sheets. The bad news is that it shows a reluctance to spend by corporate executives, which signals pessimism and that they aren’t seeing enough growth opportunities to invest in.

The final read of consumer sentiment was revised higher to 87.2 from a preliminary tally of 85.7, according to the latest University of Michigan reading. This was down from the August final reading of 91.9.

The Brazilian real enjoyed a massive rally on Thursday after the governor of Brazil’s central bank vowed to use “all instruments” available to policymakers to stem the currency’s recent slide. Busting a five-day losing streak, the real rallied as much as 7% intraday, its biggest gain since November 2008. On Wednesday, the bank announced plans to auction $2 billion worth of currency swaps over two days – restarting a program that was scrapped earlier this year.

Japan has dropped back into deflation for the first time since April 2013 in a symbolic setback to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s economic stimulus. Core inflation, excluding fresh food, was down by 0.1% compared with a year ago in August, as slumping global energy prices outweighed headline prices. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda continues to insist Japan can reach a 2% inflation target by the middle of next year, but most analysts think that goal is now out of reach.

Volkswagen has a new CEO, Matthias Mueller, head of the company’s Porsche brand. Volkswagen has blamed its emissions scandal on a “small group” of people and said suspended a number of staff. Müller pledged to leave “no stone unturned” and “maximum transparency” in an investigation into how the company cheated emissions tests on diesel cars. However, the new VW boss did not reveal how many staff have been suspended or who they are. Bloomberg reported that key parts of the faked emissions tests had been overseen by VW executives based in the company’s headquarters in Wolfsburg.

The iPhone 6s and 6s Plus go on sale in many countries today, including the U.S., U.K., China, Australia, Canada and Germany. Shoppers who purchase the devices in an Apple store can opt in to the new iPhone Upgrade Program, which includes Apple’s warranty plan and the option to upgrade to a new handset every year. Analysts expect 12 million to 13 million phones to fly off the shelves over the weekend, up from more than 10 million last year – when the iPhone 6’s launch was delayed in China.

Google is back under U.S. antitrust scrutiny as officials ask whether the tech giant stifled competitors’ access to its Android mobile-operating system. The Federal Trade Commission reached an agreement with the Justice Department to spearhead an investigation of Google’s Android business. FTC officials have met with company representatives who say Google gives priority to its own services on the Android platform, while restricting others.

Facebook’s Oculus and Samsung Electronics have unveiled a new version of Gear VR for $99, saying the virtual reality headset would ship in time for Black Friday. The new device is 22% lighter and will work with all of Samsung’s 2015 line of smartphones, in contrast to the highly anticipated Oculus Rift, which will need to be wired to an expensive gaming computer. Users will additionally be able to cast 360-degree videos from Facebook’s newsfeed into the Gear VR, and Netflix, Vimeo and Hulu support is also on the way.

A rare astronomical phenomenon Sunday night will produce a moon that will appear slightly bigger than usual and have a reddish hue, an event known as a super blood moon. It hasn’t happened since 1982, and won’t happen again until 2033. A so-called supermoon, which occurs when the moon is closest to earth in its orbit, will coincide with a lunar eclipse, leaving the moon in Earth’s shadow. Individually, the two phenomena are not uncommon, but they do not align often. The moon may appear 14 percent larger and 30 percent brighter, but the difference is subtle to the plain eye. But the reddish tint from the lunar eclipse is likely to be visible throughout much of North America. You’re basically seeing all of the sunrises and sunsets across the world, all at once, being reflected off the surface of the moon.