Morning in Arizona

Morning in Arizona
Rainbows over Canyonlands - Dave Stoker

The Headline Animator

Showing posts with label California wildfires. Show all posts
Showing posts with label California wildfires. Show all posts

Thursday, October 12, 2017

Face Mask Shortage

Financial Review

Face Mask Shortage


DOW – 31 = 22,841
SPX – 4 = 2550
NAS – 12 = 6591
RUT – 1 = 1505
10 Y – .02 = 2.32%
OIL – .64 = 50.66
GOLD + 2.00 = 1294.10

Cryptocurrency

  • Number of Currencies: 877
  • Total Market Cap: $164,996,772,967
  • 24H Volume: $5,136,518,497

Top Cryptocurrencies

  Name Symbol Price USD Market Cap Vol. Total Vol. % Price BTC Chg. % 1D Chg. % 7D
  Bitcoin BTC 5,422.1 $90.30B $2.77B 53.86% 1 +12.38% +25.32%
  Ethereum ETH 302.78 $28.93B $525.92M 10.24% 0.0562321 -0.20% +2.84%
  Ripple XRP 0.24670 $9.65B $243.79M 4.75% 0.00004618 -6.02% +5.83%
  Bitcoin Cash BCH 310.66 $5.25B $261.82M 5.10% 0.0581277 -0.71% -12.08%
  Litecoin LTC 58.950 $3.17B $334.89M 6.52% 0.0109966 +16.11% +15.25%
  Dash DASH 293.87 $2.23B $42.68M 0.83% 0.0540024 -1.40% -4.04%
  NEM XEM 0.20478 $1.85B $4.40M 0.09% 0.00003806 -4.80% -2.78%
  NEO NEO 28.353 $1.38B $59.75M 1.16% 0.0050969 -5.80% -15.13%
  BitConnect BCC 187.652 $1.34B $15.57M 0.30% 0.0346751 +12.59% +34.78%
  Monero XMR 87.00 $1.32B $32.67M 0.64% 0.0160682 -0.55% -4.89%

For the past 7 years, Republicans have been trying to repeal Obamacare. This year they tried repeal and replace, skinny repeal, and basic repeal – all failed. Now Trump has signed an executive order directing federal agencies to look for ways to expand the use of association health plans, groups of small businesses that pool together to buy health insurance, and to broaden the definition of short-term insurance, which is exempt from the Affordable Care Act’s rules.

The ultimate impact will depend on any new regulations written because of the order, but overall, the Trump administration could make cheaper plans with skimpier benefits more available. The clear intent of the executive order is to create a parallel insurance market exempt from many of the consumer protections in the Affordable Care Act.

An association health plan is a way for a group of small businesses to pool together to buy insurance, giving them more purchasing power and access to cheaper premiums. The most famous examples have been farm bureaus, which allowed independent farming businesses to band together and get insurance. National associations could skirt state mandates, and pick plans with cheaper premiums.

The problem with those plans is that they provide almost no coverage. Think of them as don’t get sick plans. Small businesses left in Obamacare’s marketplace would face higher costs and fewer options as the market became less attractive to insurers. The individuals likely to flee the Obamacare markets for association plans would probably be younger and healthier, leaving behind an older, sicker pool for the remaining ACA market.

That has the makings of a death spiral, with ever-increasing premiums and insurers deciding to leave the market altogether. This has the potential to siphon off healthy people with skinnier benefits and cheaper premiums, leaving behind a sicker pool of people under ACA plans.

We have an actual example in Tennessee, where a Farm Bureau association has been operating through a state loophole; some 23,000 people are in the association – they don’t have to be farmers. Those 23,000-people buying the skimpier health plan are presumably younger and healthier.

Segmenting those people out of the Obamacare marketplace raises premiums for everyone else left behind. The Society of Actuaries estimated in 2016 that Tennessee’s marketplace has the sickest enrollees in the entire country. The state also has some of the highest Obamacare premiums in the entire country, too. The basic rule of insurance is the law of large numbers – the bigger the insured pool, the more evenly risk and cost is spread.

Trump’s executive order also looks to expand what’s called short-term limited duration insurance. These short-term policies typically have higher out-of-pocket costs and cover fewer services than traditional insurance. They were designed for people who, for example, expect to be out of work, and therefore without insurance, for a limited period.

That kind of coverage is totally free from the health care law’s insurance regulations: the mandate to cover essential health benefits, the prohibition on charging sick people more than healthy people or denying people coverage based on their medical history, and so on.

Trump has technically asked federal agencies to consider issuing new regulations that achieve the executive order’s goals. That’s all. Federal rule-making takes some time, months upon months. Don’t expect any changes before the end of the year. We don’t know if the changes would be compliant with the individual mandate. Expect challenges to the order. So, for now at least, the effect of the order is to sow confusion and uncertainty in the health insurance market for insurance companies and customers.

Today Trump lashed out at hurricane-devastated Puerto Rico, insisting in tweets that the federal government can’t keep sending help “forever”. In a series of tweets, Trump added, “electric and all infrastructure was disaster before hurricanes.” He blamed Puerto Rico for its looming financial crisis and “a total lack of accountability.”

At the same time, the House passed, on a sweeping 353-69 vote, a $36.5 billion disaster aid package that includes assistance for Puerto Rico’s financially-strapped government. House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., said the government needs to ensure that Puerto Rico can “begin to stand on its own two feet” and said the U.S. has “got to do more to help Puerto Rico rebuild its own economy.”

About 85 percent of Puerto Rico residents still lack electricity and the government says it hopes to have electricity restored completely by March. More than one-third of the population does not have access to potable water. At least 4 deaths are reported linked to infections from dirty water. Though officials say 45 people have died in Puerto Rico in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria, anecdotal reports suggest that number is much higher.

A recent Vox investigation tallied over 500 deaths that could be linked to the hurricane, in addition to another 69 people who are still missing following the storm. We don’t know an exact number – but it will be more than 45 and it will grow in coming weeks.

There is a face mask shortage in San Francisco. This morning, the air quality in the Bay Area was worse than in Beijing, which is notorious for having some of the unhealthiest air in the world. In what is being called one of the worst firestorms in California history, smoke heavy with soot continues to blow across the state.

In San Francisco, more than an hour’s drive south from the epicenter of the blazes in Santa Rosa, many people are wearing face masks to shield themselves from the pollution that hangs like a curtain in the hazy air. Local hardware stores have sold out of face masks. The forecast for the next few days in the region is that the air quality is going to get worse.

The death toll from California’s wildfires continues to increase, with a total of 29, matching California’s deadliest blaze, the 1933 Griffith Park blaze in Los Angeles. The number is expected to climb. Officials say there are around 8,000 firefighters currently fighting the flames with more help pouring in from neighboring states every day.

Dangerous winds have been whipping up off and on, not only in Napa but in Sonoma County, too. Despite the threat, officials are sending targeted search teams into burned areas to find hundreds of people still unaccounted for. Some 3,500 homes and businesses have been destroyed by the blazes.

As the wildfires raged for a fourth day, they have continued to grow and cross county lines, as 45 miles per hour winds whipped the flames and negated almost all efforts to contain the fires. A total count of 22 fires on Wednesday changed to 21 today because two large fires had merged together.

JPMorgan Chase easily beat Wall Street’s third-quarter profit expectations, with loan growth and higher interest rates more than offsetting weakness in its markets-related unit. Overall, JPMorgan’s profit rose 7.1 percent in the third quarter compared with the year-ago period, to $6.73 billion, or $1.76 per share. Analysts had expected earnings of $1.65 per share.

Citigroup reported third-quarter earnings of $1.42 per share, a nearly 8% beat. Wall Street estimated earnings of $1.32 per share. Revenues grew 2% year-over-year to $18.2 billion, beating estimates of $17.8 billion. The bottom line benefited from the $355 million gain on the sale of its fixed-income analytics business, which added $0.13 in earnings per share. EPS was down 2%, excluding this item. Fixed-income trading took a 16% hit year-over-year.

Both JPMorgan and Citigroup say that they boosted their reserves for consumer-loan losses by the most in more than four years. Both lenders set aside money last quarter because they expected write-offs for credit-card lending to climb in periods ahead, with Citigroup saying the increase is coming faster than it had anticipated.

AT&T, the No. 2 U.S. wireless carrier, which owns satellite television service DirecTV, said that it lost 90,000 U.S. video subscribers in the quarter due to intense competition in traditional pay TV markets and the impact of the recent hurricanes.

AT&T said it added roughly 300,000 subscribers to DirecTV Now, its cheaper option for customers who want to stream television over the internet. That means the company lost 390,000 subscribers to its satellite and U-verse services, which are considered higher-value customers.

Rising energy costs led prices at the wholesale level to climb 0.4% in September. The producer price index, which measures inflation pressures before they reach the consumer, has risen 2.6% over the past 12 months. September’s burst of inflation is likely the result of oil refineries shuttering along the Gulf of Mexico due to Hurricane Harvey toward the end of August. As a result, gasoline prices surged 10.9% in September.

Initial jobless claims fell by 15,000 to 243,000 in the first week of October to mark the lowest level in six weeks.

Equifax has taken one of its customer help website pages offline as its security team considers reports of another potential cyber breach at the credit reporting company, which recently disclosed a hack that compromised the sensitive information of more than 145 million people.

The move came after an independent security analyst found part of Equifax’s website was under the control of attackers trying to trick visitors into installing fraudulent Adobe Flash updates that could infect computers with malware. So, people who were afraid their data had been stolen, went to the site and infected their computers with malware.

Thursday, May 15, 2014

Thursday, May 15, 2014 - A Calm Port in a Stormy World

Financial Review with Sinclair Noe

DOW – 167 = 16,446
SPX – 17 = 1870
NAS – 31 = 4069
10 YR YLD - .04 = 2.50%
OIL - .81 = 101.56
GOLD – 8.90 = 1297.80
SILV - .29 = 19.56

Today, it seems there is a lot going on. Let’s start with international hotspots.

Turks are angry following a deadly mine explosion that has killed at least 300 miners and trapped possibly 100 more; thousands of workers joined a protest strike, demonstrators clashed with security forces, and the discontent threatens the government. An aide to the prime minister was photographed assaulting a protester and there are claims that Prime Minister Erdogan himself struck a teenage girl; that after he was forced to flee an angry crowd and seek safety in a nearby grocery store. Turkish trade unions held a one-day strike over safety standards in the mining industry. Security forces deployed tear gas and water canons against protesters.

Meanwhile, reports of dozens of deaths from an explosion along the border between Syria and Turkey. Also, further allegations of ongoing chemical attacks by the Syrian government. Speaking in London today, Secretary of State John Kerry announced the US, Britain, and European and Arab states are increasing efforts to support rebels fighting to overthrow President Assad. Assad still has the backing of Russia, and that makes already tense relations with Russia even more edgy.

Fears of a civil war in Ukraine are mounting. Nobody wants to jump in with troops, and so there are clandestine forays by unidentified groups or squads of soldiers. And the major powers are only explicit with sanctions. Today, Russia announced it will halt the export of rocket engines crucial to US military defense and space programs. It must be very uncomfortable on the International Space Station these days.

Anti-Chinese sentiment has been running high in Vietnam ever since Beijing deployed an oil rig into disputed waters in the South China Sea on May 1st. There have been encounters including ramming and exchanges of water cannon between Chinese vessels operating near the rig and boats from Vietnam, which wants China out of the area. Today, Cambodia reports hundreds of Chinese nationals had poured across the border from Vietnam to escape riots.

Also, Japan’s Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, has called for a review of how Japan interprets its pacifist constitution to allow its military to participate in conflicts beyond its borders for the first time since the end of the second world war; this in response to a growing conflict between China and Japan over islands claimed by each country; of course, it’s not just islands but the oil reserves around the islands.

Meanwhile, China issued a bunch of economic data this week, and it mostly points to a real estate slump; home sales fell 18%; housing starts were scaled back by 25%. Moody’s Analytics estimates that the building, sale and outfitting of apartments accounted for 23% of Chinese gross domestic product last year. That is higher than in the US, Spain or Ireland at the peaks of their housing bubbles. The scale of China’s building boom and the country’s reliance on infrastructure investment for growth is unprecedented. In just two years, from 2011 to 2012, China produced more cement than the US did in the entire 20th century, and it all seems to be on shaky ground these days. Each attempt to rein in China’s $25 trillion credit bubble seems to trigger wider tremors.

Brazil has sent army troops to Recife, the capital of the northeastern state of Pernambuco, after strikes lead to riots. State police walked off the job Tuesday. Schools and universities also closed down because of concerns for student safety. Today, further protests in Sao Paolo and Rio de Janeiro drew tens of thousands to the streets. The protests are centered on cities that will host the upcoming World Cup, the quadrennial global soccer championship games. Huge anti-government protests across Brazil last year overshadowed the Confederations Cup, a warm-up tournament for the World Cup. Some of the demonstrations saw clashes between activists and police, and at least six people were killed.

Many Brazilians are angry at the billions spent to host the World Cup. Protesters have said the government should focus spending instead on improving Brazil's woeful health, education, security, housing, and infrastructure systems. The World Cup starts in less than 30 days, and the whole world will be watching.

In one week, Europeans will elect a European Parliament. It’s the second biggest election in the world, after India. Voters look set to choose more assorted extremists, anti-Europeans and oddballs than ever. The Euroland economy is going nowhere, and with the razor thin exception of Germany, most countries are seeing economic contraction; that tends to lead to strange election results.

There are other hotspots around the World. The president of Yemen has declared all-out war on Al Qaeda militants and army troops are now trying to dislodge Al Qaeda from the Arabian Peninsula. Political violence returned to Bangkok Thailand, and the Thai army killed a handful of protesters and threatened more military action if the protests continue. And of course, the Nigerian crazies, Boko Haram, and the kidnapping of hundreds of schoolgirls. And of course, all the old seething conflicts that haven’t been resolved. And don’t forget, the US is still at war in Afghanistan. I know, it’s easy to forget. Apparently, it’s even easier to forget the veterans that have served our country.

Today, Secretary of Veterans Affairs, General Eric Shinseki went before the Senate Veterans Committee to explain the mess that is the VA; this following revelations that as many as 40 veterans died while waiting for medical care at the VA facility in Phoenix.

Since the allegations arose last month that veterans were forced to wait months for appointments at the Phoenix VA medical center and that VA officials were covering up the problem, Shinseki said he has asked the VA's inspector general to investigate. He said he has also launched an intense investigation of scheduling practices at the VA's other 151 medical centers. Shinseki said he was “mad as hell” and the various Senators all acted very indignant. Of course, it wasn’t very believable theatre.

One of the documents brought forth today was an internal VA memo, written in 2008 by a team of VA managers, listing 25 ways that VA scheduling clerks were cooking the books to make it appear that veterans waiting for medical care actually were being seen on time, when in fact they were being made to wait weeks or months.

And then, 2 years ago, the Government Accountability Office reported that VA schedulers were fudging wait times for veterans seeking outpatient care and avoiding using the electronic waitlist as required. The GAO report includes a response from Shinseki's chief of staff at the time, writing that the VA has "proactively taken steps in response to GAO's findings." Clearly that didn’t happen.

Meanwhile, Southern California is on fire. Actually nine fires are burning in the greater San Diego area and they have already destroyed more than 10,000 acres, forcing evacuation of about 125,000 residents. California Governor Jerry Brown has declared a state of emergency to free up resources. It’s hot, it’s dry, and it’s just the start of the fire season.

The 2014 fire season is repeating a pattern of destruction established over the past decade by a combination of high temperatures, parched vegetation and more people living in wooded areas. Fires feeding on plentiful dry grass, brush and hardwood are requiring more personnel and money to bring them under control. More than twice as many acres burned across the US through May 9 this year than during the same period in 2013.

Last week, 96% of California was considered to be under “severe” or worse drought conditions, with about 4% of the southeastern tip of the state still in “moderate” drought conditions. A year ago, only 46% of the state suffered from “severe” or worse conditions. As of today, the National Drought Mitigation Center reports severe drought conditions now engulf 100% of California.

Meanwhile, former Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner is trying to polish his tarnished image; he’s on a book tour peddling the notion that the Wall Street bailout was a huge success. And while it might be argued it prevented a Great Depression, it is delusional to consider it a success. It was at best an experiment that did not result in a worse catastrophe. It did little or nothing for the tens of millions of Americans who lost billions of dollars in home equity and savings, and the millions more who lost their jobs. The toll was greatest on the poor and the middle class. Nor have reforms been enacted that will help the middle class and the poor the next time Wall Street implodes.

Economic data today showed industrial production in the US unexpectedly declined in April, held back by a plunge in utilities as temperatures warmed and a broad-based decrease in manufacturing. That contrasted with a higher-than-forecast reading on the Fed Bank of New York’s gauge of regional manufacturing, which climbed to 19.01 this month, from 1.29 in April.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits declined 24,000 to a seasonally adjusted 297,000 last week. It was the lowest reading since May 2007.

Consumer prices recorded their largest increase in 10 months in April. The Consumer Price Index increased 0.3% last month as food prices rose for a fourth consecutive month and the cost of gasoline surged. In the 12 months through April, consumer prices rose 2.0%. Stripping out food and energy prices, the so-called core CPI rose 0.2% after advancing by the same margin in March. In the 12 months through April, the core CPI increased 1.8%, the biggest gain since August last year.

Normally you might expect higher inflation numbers to result in lower bond prices, which means bond yields would move higher; not today. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note dipped below 2.5% intraday. Of course, Treasuries are considered a safe haven investment, and it seems a lot of people are looking for a calm port in a stormy world.