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Rainbows over Canyonlands - Dave Stoker

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Thursday, June 08, 2017

Stuff Happening

Financial Review

Stuff Happening

DOW + 8 = 21,182
SPX + 0.65 = 2433
NAS + 24 = 6321
RUT + 18 = 1415
10 Y + .02 = 2.19%
OIL + .04 = 45.68
GOLD – 9.20 = 1278.60
BITCOIN + 0.04% = 2826.04
ETHEREUM + 0.61% = 259.56

We had a bunch of stuff happening today. The Dow Industrials hit a record high intraday, but could not hold on for a record high close. The trading session went from positive to negative and back.

The Nasdaq Composite did manage a new record high. But it looks like markets are still trying to digest everything. The S&P 500 traded in a range of about one-half of one percent.

The VIX, the volatility index, also known as the “fear gauge,” held at historically low levels. The dollar and bonds both traded lower but nothing out of the daily norm.

Let’s start with the testimony of former FBI Director Jim Comey before the Senate Intelligence Committee. The public hearing lasted nearly 3 hours. I won’t try to recap everything. One or two interesting points. None of the senators questioning Comey tried to claim that Comey was lying about his representation of his meetings with President Trump, however there was sharp disagreement over the significance of their conversations.

A one point, Comey said Trump lied. None of the senators tried to claim Trump did not lie. However, after the hearing, Trump’s lawyer, and spokesperson Sarah Huckabee Sanders had the unenviable task of proclaiming the president is not a liar. Comey did not answer some of the most pointed questions because of the classified nature. He later testified before a closed-door committee. We do not know what he said there.

We certainly learned more today than yesterday, when Intelligence chiefs Coats and Rogers stonewalled the Committee, but what Comey said in public is not the be-all, end-all of this investigation, no matter how much you might want to debate about the minutiae and innuendo and nuances of the testimony.

While it was compelling television, it is just one small piece of the puzzle; nothing that exonerated nor nailed the coffin. Perhaps the most important thing we learned today is that contemporaneous memorandums of communication carry probative value.

In other words, it was a smart move to keep a diary. The bottom line is what I said a month ago when Comey was fired: “Comey… is going to consume most of the oxygen in Washington for the foreseeable future.”

We are not seeing much progress on tax reform or an infrastructure plan. This doesn’t mean nothing is happening, just that it is now on a back burner, and time is running out. The Senate is working on its version of Trumpcare but if they can’t come up with something substantially different than the House, it will be dead on arrival.

Today, the House of Representatives voted largely along party lines to replace the 2010 Dodd-Frank Wall Street reform law, a move that is expected to die in the Senate but open the door to revamping or eliminating regulations that came out of the 2007-09 financial crisis. No real word on what might replace Dodd-Frank, other than the prospect of just letting the banksters run wild.

The  European Central Bank left interest rates and policies unchanged while trimming expectations for inflation through 2019. While that was largely expected, the shared currency fell as ECB President Mario Draghi said in his news conference that the euro area still isn’t generating enough inflation, overshadowing improved prospects for the economy that led officials to upgrade their growth assessment.

The change in the assessment of risks for the economy sets the scene for the ECB to start a discussion about the timing for the removal of the stimulus, but that is apparently a debate for another day.

According to an exit poll released shortly after voting ended, Prime Minister Theresa May will win 314 seats in Britain’s election, short of a majority in the 650-seat parliament. That is an exit poll, not official results.

Prime Minister May called the snap election in a bid to strengthen her hand in Brexit negotiations, to win more time to deal with the impact of the divorce and to strengthen her grip on the Conservative Party. It appears that her electoral gamble failed. If the exit polling numbers hold, it means May’s Conservative Party would have to form a coalition or attempt to govern with the backing of other smaller parties.

For investors, the over-riding factor is likely to be greater uncertainty about whether there will be a deal on Brexit and what it will look like. A delay in forming a government could push back the start of Brexit talks, currently scheduled for June 19, and reduce the time available for what are expected to be the most complex negotiations in post-World War Two European history.

Labour, led by veteran socialist Jeremy Corbyn, could attempt to form a government with those smaller parties, which strongly oppose most of May’s policies on domestic issues such as public spending cuts.

If Corbyn’s Labour does take power with the backing of the Scottish nationalists and the Liberal Democrats, both parties adamantly opposed to Brexit, Britain’s future will be very different to the course the Conservatives were planning and could even raise the possibility of a second referendum. The unofficial exit polls sent a small shock through markets, pushing the pound sterling down.

Brazil’s top electoral court excluded testimony of engineering company executives from an illegal campaign funding trial against President Michel Temer, a move that suggested it would throw out a case that had threatened to unseat him.

The Commerce Department’s quarterly services survey, or QSS, showed consumer spending, including healthcare spending, increased at a faster clip than the government had assumed in its second estimate of gross domestic product published last month.

The QSS data suggested first-quarter GDP could be revised up to as high as a 1.5 percent annualized rate from the 1.2 percent growth pace reported in May. Growth in the current quarter may be above 3 percent, due to payback from the first quarter’s 1.2 percent reading, but the underlying trend appears to be holding steady at close to 2 percent for the year.

The Federal Reserve reports net worth of U.S. households and nonprofit groups rose by $2.35 trillion, or 2.5 percent, to $94.84 trillion in the first quarter from the previous three-month period. Household wealth has grown, boosted mostly by a 5.5 percent gain in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index last quarter and house price appreciation that matched the biggest year-over-year increase since 2014.

Now, the bad news. Household debt increased at a faster rate, or 3.2 percent, as mortgage borrowing advanced at a 3 percent pace. Other forms of consumer credit, including auto and student loans, climbed at a 5 percent rate, the slowest since 2013.

Although measures of consumer confidence have risen since the elections in November, that hasn’t necessarily translated into spending, helping to temper economic growth.

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell last week. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits declined 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 245,000 for the week ended June 3. The Tuesday JOLT survey showed high job openings, and firms appear to be holding on to their workers.

Claims have now been below 300,000, a threshold associated with a healthy labor market, for 118 straight weeks. Low layoffs and record high job openings suggest a deceleration in job growth in May was likely because companies could not find suitable workers. Labor market tightness could encourage the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at its June 13-14 policy meeting.

Department store operator Nordstrom said that some members of the Nordstrom family were considering taking the company private as it struggles with an industry-wide sales slowdown. Going private, which would involve raising debt, would be a risky but potentially profitable bet by Nordstrom’s founding family and largest shareholder bloc that the company can reshape itself and emerge from the retail meltdown stronger.

Shares of the Seattle-based clothing and accessories retailer ended 10.3 percent higher.

Hudson’s Bay Company disclosed that it will be cutting around 2,000 positions within North America as part of a major restructuring effort. HBC owns several major department stores, including Hudson’s Bay, Saks Fifth Avenue and Lord & Taylor.

Yahoo shareholders approved the company’s pending sale of its core internet business to Verizon for $4.48 billion. Yahoo expects that the deal will close on June 13, 2017. The closing of the deal, announced in July, had been delayed as the companies assessed the fallout from two data breaches that Yahoo disclosed last year. Verizon plans to cut 2,100 jobs upon completing the acquisition.

Alibaba Group announced today at an investor conference that is expects revenue growth of 45-49 percent in the 2018 fiscal year. That figure compared with 56 percent revenue growth posted for the 2017 fiscal year ended March 31. At the same event last year, the firm predicted 48 percent revenue growth

 Alibaba was up almost 14% today.

The FDA just requested that Endo International take its extended-release opioid painkiller Opana ER (otherwise known as oxymorphone hydrochloride) off the market. The agency said that the decision came after it found that the drug’s benefits no longer outweighed its risk for abuse.

FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb said in a news release: “We are facing an opioid epidemic – a public health crisis, and we must take all necessary steps to reduce the scope of opioid misuse and abuse.” If Endo doesn’t remove the drug from the market voluntarily, then the FDA can formally withdraw its approval.

Endo shares dropped 14% in after-hours trade.

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