Financial Review with Sinclair Noe
DOW – 31 = 16,880
SPX + 0.12 = 1970
NAS + 20 = 4462
10 YR YLD + .09 = 2.55%
OIL - .72 = 100.25
GOLD – 4.30 = 1295.50
SILV + .06 = 20.72
SPX + 0.12 = 1970
NAS + 20 = 4462
10 YR YLD + .09 = 2.55%
OIL - .72 = 100.25
GOLD – 4.30 = 1295.50
SILV + .06 = 20.72
Last week we told you
that this week would be very busy. Well, here we are; today we had a big report
on second quarter GDP and the Fed wrapped up a policy session, and that’s just
the beginning.
This morning, the
Commerce Department reported the gross domestic product grew at a 4% pace in
the second quarter. Boom. First quarter GDP was revised from negative 2.9% to
negative 2.1%; but any way you look at it, this was a massive turnaround.
The government also
published revisions to prior GDP data going back to 1999, which showed the
economy performing much stronger in the second half of 2013, growing at a 4%
pace, the strongest 6 months since late 2003. This was the first estimate of
second quarter GDP, and the first revision will be released August 28.
Inventories added 1.66
percentage points to this GDP report. Stockpiles were rebuilt at a $93.4
billion annualized pace after a $35.2 billion gain in the first three months of
the year. That could mean companies will keep tighter control on the number of
goods on hand this quarter, which could cut into economic growth. Or it might
mean companies are optimistic about sales.
Consumer spending rose
at a 2.5% pace last quarter, which also topped expectations, and more than
double the 1.2% advance in the first quarter of 2014, in part due to less
spending on healthcare. Purchases of durable goods, including autos, furniture
and appliances and recreational vehicles, jumped at a 14% annualized rate, the
fastest since the third quarter of 2009. Despite the pick-up in consumer
spending, Americans saved more in the second quarter. The saving rate increased
to 5.3% from 4.9% in the first quarter as incomes rose, which bodes well for
future spending.
Corporate spending on
structures, equipment and intellectual property such as software increased at a
5.5% annualized rate after rising at a 1.6% pace in the prior three months. In
addition to consumer spending and business investment, growth got a boost from
the biggest gain in state and local government expenditures in five years.
Congress is still debating spending for infrastructure improvements such as
roads and bridges, and if they can’t work out differences that could prove a
stumbling block later in the year. A widening trade gap subtracted 0.6% from growth.
Excluding inventories and trade, so-called final sales to domestic purchasers
climbed at a 2.8% rate, the biggest increase since the third quarter of 2011.
Still, the big swing
from negative 2.1% contraction to positive 4% growth seems like a very big
swing, almost freakish. We know that the first quarter was hit by bad weather
and the polar vortex …, still. So, we can smooth out the numbers by looking at
the full year growth rate; over the past 12 months the economy expanded at a
2.4% rate, pretty much in line with the past 3 years; in fact, 2.4% growth
would be decent in normal times, but the economy is still in recovery mode, and
2.4% is not enough to achieve “liftoff”. The economy is headed in the right
direction, it is gathering momentum, but it is still operating below potential.
By the Congressional Budget Office’s estimates, the level of output reported
for the second quarter is still $770 billion below the nation’s current
economic potential, or 4.2% below. That implies that the nation still has
plenty of room to grow if a faster expansion ever kicks in.
The economy is far
from perfect, we have a long way to go, but today’s report indicates progress,
real, honest to goodness progress.
A price index in the
GDP report rose at a 2.3% rate in the second quarter, the quickest in three
years, after advancing at a 1.4% pace in the prior period. A core price measure
that strips out food and energy costs increased at a 2.0% pace, the fastest
since the first quarter of 2012. The inflation picture should lend support to
the Fed hawks who want to hike interest rates sooner rather than later, but for
now the Fed is standing pat.
The Federal Reserve
Federal Open Market Committee reaffirmed it was in no rush to raise
interest rates, even as it upgraded its assessment of the economy and expressed
a level of comfort that inflation was moving up closer to its target, and the
taper is still on track. The Fed has kept overnight rates near zero since
December 2008 and has more than quadrupled its balance sheet to $4.4 trillion
through a series of bond purchase programs. The Fed announced, as expected,
that it would reduce its monthly bond purchases to $25 billion per month, but
it gave no indication that recent signs of stronger economic growth had changed
its previously announced plan to hold short-term interest rates near zero well
into 2015.
The Fed acknowledged
both faster economic growth and a decline in the unemployment rate, but
expressed concern about remaining slack in the labor market. The Fed’s statement
said: "Labor market conditions improved, with the unemployment rate
declining further… However, a range of labor market indicators suggests that
there remains significant underutilization of labor resources."
Some Fed officials see
evidence that the economy is settling into a pattern of slower growth, and that
monetary policy has substantially exhausted its power to improve the situation.
They want the Fed to retreat more quickly from its stimulus campaign, fearing
higher inflation, or that it will encourage bubbles in financial assets. Fed chairperson,
Janet Yellen, and her allies have taken a more cautious view, arguing that the
decline in the unemployment rate appears to overstate the improvement in the
labor market, because it counts only people who are looking for work. Yellen
expects some people who had been discouraged about their job prospects will
return to the labor force as the economy continues to improve, and she has
pointed to weak wage growth as evidence that it remains easy to find workers.
More optimism for the
economy came in a report from ADP, the payroll processing company; private
employers added 218,000 jobs last month, which was down from 281,000 in June.
It was the fourth straight month of job gains above 200,000. While ADP’s numbers
offered reason to be hopeful, the company’s figures cover only private
businesses and often do not track with the government’s jobs report, which will
be released Friday.
The ratings agency
Standard & Poor’s says Argentina has defaulted after it failed to make a
$539 million interest payment due on its discount bonds. The downgrade came
late this afternoon as representatives for Argentina and New York hedge funds
sought to reach a last-minute agreement on Argentina’s debt. Yet after more
than five hours of mediated talks, neither side appeared closer to a deal.
Standard & Poor’s lowered its rating on the country’s debt to “selective
default”, noting that Argentina had a 30-day grace period following the June 30
scheduled interest payment date to make payment.
This story goes back
to 2001, when Argentina defaulted on tens of billions of dollars of sovereign
bonds. It later exchanged those bonds for discounted ones with most of its
bondholders, but a small group of traders, mainly hedge funds, led by Paul
Singer’s Elliott Management refused to take the new bonds, even though they had
purchased the discounted bonds after the default, at pennies on the dollar,
they demanded full payment, and they have not backed down, and they took it to
court in the US.
In 2012 a US federal
judge ruled that Argentina could not make payments to bondholders who had
agreed to discounted bonds, without paying the holdouts. Argentina appealed and
took its case to the United States Supreme Court, which rejected the appeal
last month. Argentina had until the end of the day to pay the holdouts or risk
defaulting for a second time in 13 years.
A federal judge has
ordered Bank of America’s Countrywide unit to pay $1.27 billion in penalties
for defective mortgage loans sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in 2008. US
District Judge Jed Rakoff in Manhattan issued the civil penalty against BofA in
the first mortgage-fraud case brought by the federal government to go to trial.
A jury in Manhattan found Countrywide liable. The judge determined that Fannie
and Freddie had paid Countrywide nearly $3 billion for HSSL loans, but
determined that 57% of the loans were of acceptable quality. HSSL refers to a
Countrywide loan program called the High Speed Swim Lane, which fast-tracked
almost any loan; it was also known as a “Hustle” loan.
In today’s decision,
Judge Rakoff wrote: “While the HSSL process lasted only nine months, it was
from start to finish the vehicle for a brazen fraud by the defendants, driven
by hunger for profits and oblivious to the harms thereby visited, not just on
the immediate victims but also on the financial system as a whole.”
Separately, Bank of America is reportedly
nearing a settlement with the Justice Department to resolve an investigation
into its sale of mortgage backed bonds centered on faulty loans the company
inherited from Countrywide and Merrill Lynch, which it purchased in 2008. The
discussions include how much money will be paid in cash and how much in
consumer relief. Potential terms have ranged from $13 billion to $17 billion.
The DOJ has been trying to work out a settlement for some time, and was
reportedly dissatisfied with a $13 billion deal that included $5 billion in
consumer relief. The consumer relief portion of these settlements has typically
been an easy out for the banks. The amount of any settlement would come on top
of the $9.5 billion the bank agreed to pay in March to resolve Federal Housing
Finance Agency claims.
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